Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA


A modest fall for Friday of well under 100 patients today. Admissions too seem to not be falling any more. But UK now below 2800 patients in hospital with Covid when it was nearly 40,000 in January. Ventilators sub 400 in England but not quite yet in UK. With dates when numbers were lower slipping back regularly in early October. A rise in ventilators in the North West and patients in the East were the biggest blips. But nothing yet too worrying and it will be harder with numbers so low to see great changes day to day. Next few days will tell us a lot about whether we are stalling or still falling.
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Thanks for the invaluable data and observation, @Healdplace

You've rightly been noting the relatively high case rates in Yorkshire for a while. Their big cities dominate the table of Local Authorities with the highest Covid rates;

covid 9 apl.PNG

But focus on hospitalisation and deaths and it looks less concerning. I just used the Government site https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ to compare the latest day's hospital data (not necessarily the most up-to-date) in my part of Sheffield, a friend's bit of Leeds and my old home in Cambridge;

In Sheffield there were zero deaths and just two hospital admissions,
in Leeds two deaths and just three hospital admissions,
and in Cambridge zero deaths and just two hospital admissions.

My mum worries I've moved to a hotbed of Covid ! But in my postcode (c.10k people) we had only four cases in the last week, and numbers are plummeting despite the schools reopening.

All of that looks good news in terms of control of the virus and easing of pressure on the NHS.
 
unicorn said:
Thanks for the invaluable data and observation, @Healdplace

You've rightly been noting the relatively high case rates in Yorkshire for a while. Their big cities dominate the table of Local Authorities with the highest Covid rates;

View attachment 13966

But focus on hospitalisation and deaths and it looks less concerning. I just used the Government site https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ to compare the latest day's hospital data (not necessarily the most up-to-date) in my part of Sheffield, a friend's bit of Leeds and my old home in Cambridge;

In Sheffield there were zero deaths and just two hospital admissions,
in Leeds two deaths and just three hospital admissions,
and in Cambridge zero deaths and just two hospital admissions.

My mum worries I've moved to a hotbed of Covid ! But in my postcode (c.10k people) we had only four cases in the last week, and numbers are plummeting despite the schools reopening.

All of that looks good news in terms of control of the virus and easing of pressure on the NHS.
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Thank you and I agree with that. The big metro areas - Yorkshire and North West and West Midlands - will always be epicentres of any outbreak simply by fulfilling the perfect conditions for spread.

But it is all relative. The hospital numbers for Yorkshire have fallen in much the same way as every other region.

Here are patient/ventilator numbers for Yorkshire and North West every Friday back over the past 6 weeks.

As you will see they are very much tracking one another on the same downward path.



Yorkshire

Patients 1800 v 1380 v 1049 v 776 v 625 v 502 v 429

Ventilators 231 v 202 v 141 v 94 v 88 v 65 v 61



North West

Patients 1724 v 1311 x 1040 v 819 v 678 v 512 v 422

Ventilators 225 v 159 v 128 v 90 v 79 v 64 v 56


The fall has noticeably slowed in the past couple of weeks but partly that is because when numbers are this low the same percentage fall is a much smaller number.

Both are now around a quarter of the number they were those six weeks ago.

That is a very good pathway.
 
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Europe seems to be getting its vaccination act together. Germany vaccinating at 650k per day now.
 
Marvin said:
Europe seems to be getting its vaccination act together. Germany vaccinating at 650k per day now.
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Yeah, most of Europe is getting its vac game together, French 7 day average roll out is 400k per day, Italy should hit 300k per day this week. Allowing GP’s to handle vaccinations has been key in Germany, the issue holding things up was as much logistical as it was supply.

FT reporting AZ supply issues, with 2.6m doses due to be sent to Europe next week halved, reasons unclear. Q2 supply is less reliant on AZ then Q1 so it shouldn’t impact European rollout.
 
Wales vaccination data

1, 556, 316 first dose - 19, 194 today - was 17, 362 yesterday & 11, 763 last week

509, 478 second doses - 11, 160 today - was 13, 579 yesterday & 3668 last week

Big improvement on Easter weekend.


More updates later after the match.
 
Zoe App


Predicted cases down to 1626. New low. From 1956 yesterday.

40, 831 ongoing symptomatic cases - well down on yesterday. From 43, 356.

Most reported in Greater Manchester are 1123 per million in Bolton and 1170 in Tameside


Yorkshire has numerous similar or higher areas but Calderdale is at 6784 cases per million. Easily the most.
 
Scotland data:

4 deaths - was 0 last week

281 cases - was 397 last week

1.5% positivity - was 3.2% last week

168 patients

20 ventilated icu
 
Scotland vaccination update:

2, 643, 524 first doses given - 17, 947 today - was 16, 746 yesterday & 20, 141 last week

551, 699 second doses given - 26, 887 today - was 24, 436 yesterday & 20,401 last week
 
34 England hospital deaths - with 8 from North West.

Last week was 41 with 2 from North West.

This may be tied to the big ups and downs in NW ventilator numbers in the past few days hospital data,

I should add that only 28 actually happened in February, March or April and 4 are from 2020.

Though at 25 the two day number for 8 April currently is one of the highest in the past 2 or 3 weeks.

It is also higher than all of the past 5 five day totals which are 17, 17, 19, 17 and just 11 for 5 April - the lowest 5 day total since 19 September.

So may be a one off bad day not the start of an escalation. Hopefully.
 
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England hospital deaths wk to wk:

257 / 40 NW / 16% (16% fall wk to wk)

185 / 18 NW / 10% (28% fall wk to wk)

118 / 19 NW / 16% (36% fall wk to wk)

71 / 8 NW / 11% (40% fall wk to wk)

58 / 11 NW / 20% (18 % fall wk to wk)

41 / 2 NW / 5% (29% fall wk to wk)

34 / 8 NW / 24% (17% % fall wk to wk) TODAY
 
Northern Ireland data:

3 deaths - was 0 last week

146 cases - was 84 last week

7.2% positivity - was 5.9% last week

5 Care Home Outbreaks - was 5 yesterday and 6 last week

Weekly rolling cases total 620 - up from 553 yesterday - down from 788 last week

86 Patients - down 13 in day - was 105 last week

7 ventilated - down 2 in day - was 10 last week


The hospital data is doing very well but the deaths like elsewhere are going up slightly and the wk to wk cases also up a tad.

Whether this is still impact of the lower data comparison from Easter we will see next week.

Either way numbers are good but there is at best a stall in the fall - not surprising at these low numbers - and the positivity increase shows it is not down to more tests now than over Easter.
 
Regional Cases Scoreboard

With normality returned the comparison is with 2 days ago (last non negative number) and V last Saturday

Headline North West not done particularly well today.

SOUTH

East 161 down 41 v 227

London 247 down 44 v 350

South East 215 down 106 v 236

South West 61 (new record low) down 64 v 115

Everywhere in the South had a good day and down


MIDLANDS

East 221 down 68 v 291

West 247 UP 5 v 303

The Midlands has stabilised around here.


NORTH

North East 68 down 55 v 166

Yorkshire 456 down 153 v 643

And

NORTH WEST 336 UP 82 v 437

So the NW bucks the trend and goes up by the most but stays behind Yorkshire but now second highest scorer.
 
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