We are a nation of wimps
Which is still the vaccine according to those numbers - by a margin of 3:1. I should caution that if these numbers are important to your decision you should probably talk to your GP rather than random people on internet football forums to make sure you are getting the best information :)I will go with which ever one has better odds for my children regardless of wider societal benefits.
What can we be sure of Gremlin? I bet any kids that have died would have had underlying health issues,, Also you have to trust the jab , if my kids kill their gran because they haven’t had the jab it would be extremely unlucky, not to mention unfortunate, unless you could do with a bit of inheritance money ;)..You absolutely sure about that? Kids have died of COVID - not many, I grant you, but it has happened (around 3 in 1 million for 10-16 year old according to the Lancet). Plus this is also part of the overall 'herd immunity' strategy so maybe it doesn't protect your kids but it protects your Gran who will come into contact with your kids and, even though she is double-jabbed, that protection isn't 100% effective (maybe 90-95%).
The key issue seems to be has the link between infections and serious disease/death been weakened sufficiently so that infections don't matter so much. In a bad year for seasonal flu there are around 20,000 deaths in this country and we don't lock the whole place down for it. If we can get to below those kind of levels regardless of infections then you have to start thinking that this is an acceptable trade-off for keeping the country running and not suffering all the economic (and health and mental health) impacts of continued lockdowns (because it is for flu so why not for COVID).I must admit, I can't get my head around the strategy at the moment.
IF the new cases plateau now at around 7k-9k per day then this will go up dramatically when everything is back open. We surely can't start from a position where we have this number of cases per day next month can we? It surely has to be back down in the hundreds surely. Maybe it's just me, but I'm hearing more people isolating again which I didn't hear for a few months. Could be "local" to me though.
There's still a lot of people on furlough, not in offices, not in nightclubs, working from home, not on trains, not on buses, not in swimming pools, not in changing rooms etc. I don't see anyway that 7k of cases won't go up next month if everything reopens. IF the number of cases goes up then the chances it finds those who have had the vaccine, but didn't work or haven't had the vaccine will be higher. As a result, I don't see anything other than another wave coming.
Looking at some of the info and slides, I'm probably not alone in being surprised at the potential size of the wave. I don't think anyone expected thousands to die this summer after the vaccination programme and we've not been told to expect this, or anything like it. This will sound cruel/crass, but the deaths aren't the problem, it's the numbers going to hospital. We can't afford another round of pressure on the NHS as it is delaying other surgery.
Whilst the vaccines look like they are doing an amazing job, is the job they are doing really going to get us out of this? I just don't see how we can unlock more without making a lot more cases and filling up the hospitals. I totally accept that they are reducing the numbers going into hospiral, but it feels like once everything is back open, the number of social interactions will explode and if 0.001% (I've plucked this tiny number out of the air) of the population get it end up in hospital, it's still a huge number.
I'll still continue washing my hands, sanitising, wearing the mask but I'm starting to feel like it won't be over for quite some time yet.
As an individual you can't be sure - nobody can. That's life (and statistics). It's very, very unlikely with a 1 in a million chance. 999,999 people will be absolutely fine and wondering what the fuss was about and 1 person will die and their family will be destroyed by it. But we make those kind of judgements everyday without really thinking about it - crossing the road, driving a car - it's part of being human.What can we be sure of Gremlin? I bet any kids that have died would have had underlying health issues,, Also you have to trust the jab , if my kids kill their gran because they haven’t had the jab it would be extremely unlucky, not to mention unfortunate, unless you could do with a bit of inheritance money ;)..
If said granny still feels or is still venerable despite having the jab, best she stays away from everyone..
Good stuff and pretty much sums up my position on the situation looking forward. A lot of background noise been in play for a while which has veered away from the science into the realms of political and media fed division.Just look at numbers January v now.
January (pre vaccinations) 39,000 people in hospital from maybe 30/40,000 cases a day.
Up to 1000 deaths a day.
And over 4000 people on ventilators.
Right now with Delta AND vaccinations deep into roll out - utterly different.
Just over 1000 people in hospital and around a third of those cases daily already and rising.
And around 10 deaths a day or less not 1000.
And only 200 people on ventilators.
The reason - the most vulnerable are now protected by the vaccines. The less vulnerable are not yet.
4% over 60 are catching it. 80% under 40 are. In January it was utterly different - up to 30% over 60 and under 30% under 40.
Increase the vaccine protection for that lower age range and we should get nowhere near the wave numbers in January.
This is the strategy,
We should all hope it works. Based on all we know it will.
Because the vaccinations work against Delta. That is why. If they did not we would be in full national lockdown now.
Because a significant number of people are not fully vaccinated yet. It's a race and the delay is to get us some more time to catch up before the virus gets ahead. It also gives more time to confirm how much the link between infections and hospitalisations/deaths has been weakened.So why have we still got any restrictions?
Because they want to protect the ones catching it now - most of whom still need vaccinations they are pushing hard to do over the next 4 weeks.So why have we still got any restrictions?
Because a significant number of people are still not vaccinated yet. It's a race and the delay is to get us some more time to catch up before the virus gets ahead. It also gives more time to confirm how much the link between infections and hospitalisations/deaths has been weakened.
This is a good thread. Very positive news.
Where did you read that? A 3rd, from my recollection it was more like 3% than 33%Again I’m confused as our media reported that a 3rd of those in British hospitals that died of the delta variant has been double jabbed?
I dont see why it would plateau. It should crash because the R(t) should fall as more and more people get immunity. But the problem is that it will go round the world now, and what will it look like after that. There'll be all kinds of new strains. They wont be complete escape mutations. We'll have some immunity but we'll need escape variant boosters and hopefully next time there'll be different approaches and organisations on different tracks so we aren't left in one lifeboat.I must admit, I can't get my head around the strategy at the moment.
IF the new cases plateau now at around 7k-9k per day then this will go up dramatically when everything is back open. We surely can't start from a position where we have this number of cases per day next month can we? It surely has to be back down in the hundreds surely. Maybe it's just me, but I'm hearing more people isolating again which I didn't hear for a few months. Could be "local" to me though.
There's still a lot of people on furlough, not in offices, not in nightclubs, working from home, not on trains, not on buses, not in swimming pools, not in changing rooms etc. I don't see anyway that 7k of cases won't go up next month if everything reopens. IF the number of cases goes up then the chances it finds those who have had the vaccine, but didn't work or haven't had the vaccine will be higher. As a result, I don't see anything other than another wave coming.
Looking at some of the info and slides, I'm probably not alone in being surprised at the potential size of the wave. I don't think anyone expected thousands to die this summer after the vaccination programme and we've not been told to expect this, or anything like it. This will sound cruel/crass, but the deaths aren't the problem, it's the numbers going to hospital. We can't afford another round of pressure on the NHS as it is delaying other surgery.
Whilst the vaccines look like they are doing an amazing job, is the job they are doing really going to get us out of this? I just don't see how we can unlock more without making a lot more cases and filling up the hospitals. I totally accept that they are reducing the numbers going into hospiral, but it feels like once everything is back open, the number of social interactions will explode and if 0.001% (I've plucked this tiny number out of the air) of the population get it end up in hospital, it's still a huge number.
I'll still continue washing my hands, sanitising, wearing the mask but I'm starting to feel like it won't be over for quite some time yet.