Coronavirus (2021) thread

[inbetween]

It's probably inevitable that cases will actually go up now that schools are opening and when other businesses open, but as long as the death toll keeps dropping that's as good as it's going to get.

This is perhaps why the cautious reopening plan is a good approach but I don't think a big case rise will happen.

We saw a very low uptick in cases after lockdown 1 last year so there is definitely some seasonal aspect to this virus which suggests a rapid increase in cases probably won't happen. It took 5 months to go from around 1,000 cases in May to 10,000 in October last year despite pretty much everything being open by the start of July.

Hopefully by the time cases begin to increase the vast majority of remaining unvaccinated people will be done (end of May) so the effect will flatten. Once that happens there is no reason to not reopen everything on the understanding that less cases will be reported because no-one should be getting ill enough to present for testing.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

501 cases - was 386 last week

5.0% positivity - was 4.5% last week

138 Greater Glasgow, 99 Lanarkshire. 67 Lothian

654 patients (UP 26 in day) - was 824 last week

59 ventilated (down 2 in day) - was 71 last week


This is the first day in a while where nearly all the numbers have gone in the wrong direction week to week.

Though Monday hospital data often shows an increase and it will be no surprise of England does later too.

In mitigation in Scotland it was noted that Glasgow hospitals have aligned the way they defined a covid patient based on testing to bring it into alignment with the rest of the UK. They now do not insist on their own in hospital test but accept Lighthouse Labs external tests to classify as a Covid case too.

Could this be linked to school returning?

I think the youngest kids went back a couple of weeks ago & there's been some 'phased' older ones going back since.

I'm sure our Scottish posters could confirm dates etc.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination data:

998, 296 first doses given - 3237 yesterday - was 11, 640 day before & 2054 last week

183, 739 second doses given - 6685 yesterday - was 7891 day before & 7411 last week

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Could this be linked to school returning?

I think the youngest kids went back a couple of weeks ago & there's been some 'phased' older ones going back since.

I'm sure our Scottish posters could confirm dates etc.

Maybe it’s more to do with last weekend’s lockdown “ceasefire” when large groups gathered in parks to enjoy the sunny weather?

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Maybe it’s more to do with last weekend’s lockdown “ceasefire” when large groups gathered in parks to enjoy the sunny weather?

Yeah could be a factor but like schools we keep getting told that last summers beach days didn't cause an affect on the figures.

 

[Magicpole]

Glasgow had a potential super spreader event last night, when our city rivals turned out to celebrate in George Sq. We will need to wait and see if it has an impact on how the numbers go.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination data:

1, 774, 659 first doses given - 14, 909 yesterday - was 15, 881 day before & 17, 883 last week

118, 732 second doses given - 2802 yesterday - was 1849 day before & 2353 last week

The briefing referred to the low vaccine supply which will impact all this week but that from next week on they hope to ramp up significantly.

96% of all 65 - 69 year olds vaccinated

42% of all 60 - 64 year olds vaccinated

35% of all 55 - 59 year olds vaccinated

29% of all 50 - 54 year olds vaccinated

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe app today predicts 6242 cases (648 down on yesterday's prediction).

That one was 1500 above actual cases tested as it turned out.

It has been around 1000 up most days.

Guess we will see later.

Zoe App is from hundreds of thousands of people with symptoms reporting direct to them. With or without a test.

So a different measure but you would expect some similarities.

 

[M18CTID]

Zoe app today predicts 6242 cases (648 down on yesterday's prediction).

That one was 1500 above actual cases tested as it turned out.

It has been around 1000 up most days.

Guess we will see later.

Zoe App is from hundreds of thousands of people with symptoms reporting direct to them. With or without a test.

So a different measure but you would expect some similarities.

Could be a sub-5000 case number then which would be the first time in how long?

 

[give it to gordon]

If so many people have ignored the rules, can you explain how we have gone from 70,000 cases per day, to just 5,000 cases ? The ONLY reason for that is people following the rules, yes there are idiots, but the vast majority are doing/have done the right thing.

It's not vaccinations either, I know of someone who was vaccinated with both jabs by early January, yet she caught covid late Feb and has since passed away in hospital, she caught it in hospital after a previous few days there for something else, she was allowed home then tested positive having not been out otherwise.

I guess the amount I saw ever day is only a small % of the population. But we were seeing the same people out and about every day, the shops were closed but 'open' you just knocked on their doors and the shop keeper brings it !.

In the last month my area has been the highest weekly area in kent twice.

I wasnt saying people all over the uk were ignoring lockdown only from what I was seeing in and around Ramsgate. Like I say the fact that thanet has twice been the highest place in kent in the last few weeks. Something seems out of tilt with the rest of kent and England.