Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP DATA


AGAIN TUESDAY DATA - TODAY HOPEFULLY LATER


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Oldham still rising and retains top spot with its highest score in week

Oldham is UP on 23, 435 FROM 21, 292 and well clear of the pack sadly.

Wigan leaps UP to second - Zoe again correctly matching its big case rise yesterday - on 15, 985 FROM 11, 024

Trafford UP on 15, 834 FROM 13, 799 - again Zoe matching its rising numbers this week in real data.


Rochdale DOWN a little but stays fourth and tracking Oldham on 15, 372 FROM 15, 491


Manchester is still climbing UP and now fifth just behind the three above on 15, 279 FROM 14, 286.


Salford leaps UP to sixth on 12, 603 FROM 10, 179 - been very flat for days now and has been doing well in the real case numbers but also Zoe predicted its jump in cases too.


Bolton UP in seventh slightly on 10, 489 FROM 10, 271

Tameside UP in eighth into the higher watch zone on 10, 409 FROM 10, 024 - though I suspect it is actually well up on these numbers given its real case numbers making it worst in GM. Zoe has always under estimated numbers here.


So GM has just 2 boroughs now in the lower watch zone and yet again it has tracked the unexpected:


Stockport is now only ninth highest from top a week ago - after a run of better numbers in the real data too - now DOWN on 9817 FROM 13, 904 after the sixth straight fall here.

Leaving Bury still in top spot as it has been for a while DOWN on 7817 FROM 8475



REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan has suddenly PLUMMETED DOWN today on 9415 FROM 33, 347 .

Bit suspicious of such a huge daily drop.



Liverpool also DOWN on 9560 FROM 10, 377

AND St Helens DOWN on 21, 188 FROM 28, 260 - Now next highest in NW. behind Oldham which is the highest in the region as of yesterday.

Though Sefton (the coastal part of Merseyside and Lancashire) is UP on 17, 478

And the Blackpool coast area in the sun and with the illuminations opening has gone UP to 11, 672

Chorley and Preston have dropped into the 13000's in recent days from lower 20's.

These areas are creating the most cases currently in this western part of the region.



Cheshire East - which Andy Hinch will be delighted to hear is still low is slightly UP again on 6392 FROM 6363 - still behind everywhere in GM.

And much better than Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW driving the regions cases - much higher on 14, 349 - slightly DOWN from 14, 718.
 
grunge said:
in all honesty I don’t see what they did as a fail in the grand scheme of things.

I have no idea if it was good planning or luck tho. They had the robust medical infrastructure in place which didn’t seem to be over stretched too much. They don’t have a lot of multi generational households which helped limit spread to the elderly etc etc.

main issue is(was) when some people have in the past suggested we could have done the same. That’s where competitive stats come in especially Stockholm vs London as it gives a good idea of how much worse our situation would have been even if the hospitals could have coped, which they couldn’t.
Click to expand...
Agree mate, wasn’t comparing. I just know I’d have preferred to be there than here. Their biggest mistake was the care home issues, which they aren’t alone in failing with. We could never have tried what they did, it’d have been carnage.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

119 with 24 NORTH WEST

Last week it was 196 with 22 NW - BUT that was the usual Tuesday catch up delayed a day by the Bank Holiday.

A better comparison is with two & three weeks ago which was:-

108 with 27 NW & 64 with 5 NW

So as you see a rise from 108 to 119 in two weeks IS going up but VERY slowly.

There is also an end of Month catch up in today's data so several cases from some weeks ago and even a handful from before Christmas LAST year.

That said it now seems the weekly total at 5 days WILL sadly be up on last week (though not by much) after looking like it might fall all week

This is largely due to 3 September which is now THE single worst day for deaths in England hospitals since 11 March.

3 September is at 88 after 5 days. March 11 was at 90. That 88 is 15 more than the 73 seven days earlier and means that tomorrow's week to week comparison will almost certainly be up on last week's.

Though the week to week rise will almost certainly be smaller than it was last week or the week before.

So - YES - deaths are inching up but only inching up.
 
WALES DATA

10 deaths - was 5 last week (the 10 deaths were all between 30 AUG & 5 SEP btw)

2669 cases - was 3328 last week (bear in mind this was 48 hour data last week not 24 as today due to Bank Holiday delays last week)

16.1% positivity - was 14% last week

369 patients - was 313 last week

46 ventilated - was 44 last week
 
ENGLAND 119 HOSPITAL DEATHS

By Region:-

East 11, London 8, Midlands 26, NE & Yorkshire 19, North West 24, South East 17, South West 14

9 in Rotherham and 8 in Leicester were the most


NW trusts:-

Wirral 5, Liverpool 4, Lancashire 4, St Helens 3, Manchester 2, Salford 2, & 1 each in Chester, East Lancashire, Mid Cheshire and Southport.


By age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (17), 60 - 79 (58), 80 PLUS (43)


Very notable recently that the 80 PLUS deaths are often lower than the 60 - 79 group.

I suspect the younger of these two most at risk groups are vulnerable but able or willing to take more risks by going out and mixing more normally than the over 80s.

But that is just speculation on my part.
 
ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE



Predicted cases DOWN second day running.

Though by just by 251 (up from a fall of 78 yesterday) - on 51, 876 FROM 52, 127

In other words still flat.

However, ongoing symptomatic cases also FELL for third day running.

DOWN to 736, 187 FROM 737, 907 - which at a fall of 1720 is well up on the fall of 452 yesterday and the previous day's fall of just 71.



So in essence Zoe is showing the same kind of flatness the real data has been doing. But the numbers are going down now small as the drops may be.
 
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West FALLS a little to 735 / 967 FROM 750 / 986

NW stays at FOURTH of the 12 regions.


Behind Scotland (still TOP) and Wales (now second) THESE TWO BOTH THE ONLY ONES IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


Yorkshire still third.

BUT Northern Ireland has gone up and been overtake by London - now the lowest region in the UK.

As the daily case numbers in real life have been showing in recent days London HAS been falling for real not just on Zoe.

And North East slips behind the NORTH WEST into fifth place.



Scotland TOP is UP - on 941 / 1420 FROM 928 / 1227


WALES second rises again UP on 775 / 1115 FROM 749 / 1086


Yorkshire in third is UP on 816 / 1098 FROM 808 / 1088


And North East now in fifth is UP to 648 / 1047 FROM 634 / 1032


N Ireland readjusted up a bit a nd is now above London but still way down in the lower watch zone.


UP on 320 / 1105 FROM 298 / 1075



London has gone DOWN again too on 567 / 728 FROM 588 / 753

This is enough to finally make it the LOWEST Zoe region in the UK. Big turnaround here in past 2 weeks.
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY'S DATA


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Manchester is still climbing fast and has shot right up the table to now be in TOP spot. Which again is a little puzzling.



UP on 17, 029 FROM 15, 279


Trafford climbs to second - again matching its real rise - UP on 16, 752 FROM15, 834

Salford recent rises match it going into third spot UP on 16, 141 - big climb today FROM 12, 603 - been very flat for days now but also Zoe predicted its jump in cases too.


Wigan leaps UP to fourth - Zoe correctly matching its big rise in cases - on 16, 114 FROM 15, 985


Rochdale in fifth UP on 15, 920 FROM 15, 372 - pretty flat last few days


Tameside UP in sixth on 12, 092 FROM 10, 409 FROM 10, 024 -


Bolton in seventh slightly UP on 10, 951 FROM 10, 489


So GM has 3 boroughs now in the lower watch zone and yet again it has tracked the unexpected:
Leaving

Bury has been lowest for a while but now in eighth UP on 9988 FROM 7817 - just missing the upper watch zone.

Stockport is now only ninth highest from top a week ago - after a run of better numbers in the real data - and is DOWN again on 8048 FROM 9817 after seven straight falls here.

Would be top - may actually be top - unless Zoe has pulled one out of the hat and seen a VERY dramatic fall from the worst in the NW to best in GM in 24 hours in Oldham

So - if you trust this data !

Oldham is now lowest DOWN on 7459 FROM 23, 435

We will see - but if Zoe really have got this one right they are onto something!





REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan has suddenly PLUMMETED DOWN today on 8663 FROM 9415 AND FROM 33, 347 two days agp.

We will see.....



Liverpool UP on 11, 304 FROM 9560

AND St Helens UP on 23, 701 FROM 21, 188- Back to being the most in the North West.
also
Though Sefton (the coastal part of Merseyside and Lancashire) is UP on 18, 061 FROM 17, 478

And the Blackpool coast area in the sun and with the illuminations opening is DOWN a tad on 11, 380 FROM 11, 672

Chorley is on 13, 949 - pretty flat. But Preston has dropped below 10K




Cheshire East - is still low is DOWN again on 5903 FROM 6392 - behind everywhere in GM.

And much better than Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW driving the regions cases - much higher and GOING UP on 16, 126 FROM 14, 349.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

17 deaths - was 9 last week - big rise here

5810 cases - was 6170 last week - small fall but is a fall

10.8% positivity - was 11.5% last week - so this is better news - though still higher than it was pre schools

BUT THEN WE GET TO THE HOSPITAL DATA AND THIS IS STARTING TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN

883 patients - up 78 on yesterday - was 629 last week

82 Ventilated ici - up 5 on yesterday - was 59 last week


Inevitable with the big case numbers day after day but this increasing rise is starting to approach a level where it might become a problem. I was hoping it could stay sub 1000 in hospital and 100 on ventilator beds but this is looking a little in the balance unless we see real falls soon.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 9 last week

1210 cases - was 1472 last week - ZOE has got the surprise falls in N Ireland spot on again.

4.9% positivity - was 8.2% last week - lots more tests, fewer cases - is pretty good news

Weekly cases total 9892 - was 10, 316 yesterday & 10, 378 last week - This is good news too

126 Care Home outbreaks - was 131 yesterday and 131 last week

452 patients - was 434 yesterday & 418 last week

33 ventilated icu - was 35 yesterday & 37 last week
 
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The N Ireland data continues to look promising and we would love to know why it is turning round there.

But there is one worrying thing in the weekly data

The ONLY age range that went up yesterday to today in the age range numbers was the over 80s.

This might just be a glitch of the data but at 303 from 9889 (up from 286 from 10, 315 that is a concern.

The Care Homes are at least falling again. So perhaps this will turn around.

At 3868 of the 9889 aged 19 or under (down from 3916 yesterday) the overwhelming numbers testing positive are still young, 2614 (down from 2823 - biggest fall) are aged 20 - 39.

So two thirds of those catching Covid now are under 40.
 
So the total deaths today with out of hospital England to come are:- 152

Last week at this stage there were 219 - but that was because of the bank holiday catch up.

Two weeks ago the number was 131 - a much fairer comparison.

That 219 last week became just 207 in all settings (probably double counting as happens most days)

The week before that 131 became 149 on all settings.

So we may well be looking at around 170 today - though there were a few older deaths added today in England -one as far back as last November and another pre Christmas - so these may well be eliminated via already having been included at some stage.
 
And the total cases for the three nations today is :- 9689

Last week at this stage the total was 10,970 - but Wales was two days data and is not today.

England later added 24, 723 to total 35, 693

Yesterday England added 27, 545 to the three nations 9944 to total 37, 489

Last week Tuesday to Wednesday England cases rose by 3756.

So a guesstimate for today would be 40 - 41K.

Anything below would be good news.
 
Cases 38, 975 - which is OK for England at 29, 286 - up 1741 on yesterday and 4563 on last week.

191 all settings deaths - which is up on my estimate. Quite a few out of hospital in England today.

1, 143, 886 pillar 1 & 2 tests - down 192K on yesterday

But up 232 K on last Wednesday.
 
GREATER MANCHE STER & NORTH WEST HIGHLIGHTS

Bit of a so so day for GM

North West cases DOWN on day by 376 to 4129

Of these Greater Manchester were DOWN on the day by just 76 - so quite a bit under expectation sadly.

Week to week North West are UP by 820 from 3309.

Of that number GM fares a little better up by 290 of that 820 from 1247 to 1537 today.

This is 35.4% of the NW weekly rise in GM which is about the numbers it has been scoring in the past week or two.

Bury again had a good day - below 100 and down 15 week to week.

Salford were low too (116) and down 10 week to week. A surprise.

Trafford though - counter to Zoe - possibly had the best day. It was on just 90 - down day to day and 28 week to week and gained a huge chunk of Pop Score points back from Stockport whose numbers were up today on 175 - up 28 on last week.

As for the worst day. Probably Tameside with its highest score in weeks and a huge Pop Score rise of 79.

Though Wigan runs it close up on yesterday at 211

Manchester on 294 was up 95 week to week as well so not great.

All in all a mixed day.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA


ADMISSIONS - THESE ARE FROM MONDAY (48 hours old)



LAST MON // THIS MONDAY

808 // 831

UP 23 week to week. Monday is usually the biggest number of admissions in the week


By regions (LAST MONDAY V THIS MONDAY) :-


LONDON 146 V 142

MIDLANDS 156 V 147

NE & YORKSHIRE 152 V 157



AND

NORTH WEST 115 V 119


So NW admitted the least of the four big regions again BUT has slightly risen week to week - as has Yorkshire.

London and Midland started to do better.
 
As well as going after the vaccine reluctant section of our population, isn't it time to come down hard on the people with co-morbidities which have been brought on by their poor lifestyle choices and who are more likely to need hospital treatment and swamp the NHS? They are as big a problem as the people not wanting the vaccine.

Specifically being overweight and obese (which costs the NHS a lot of money in normal times), smokers, Type 2 diabetics and people with heart disease.

A few ideas:

- Putting obese ppl in exercise camps until they have reduced their weight to something approaching healthy
- Increase the tax/cut the benefits of these ppl
- Ban the overweight from restaurants or restrict their calorie intake when there to meals under 600kcal
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FOR TODAY

6302 UP 58 FROM 6244



Last week the equivalent numbers were

6236 - DOWN 57 FROM 6293


WEEK TO WEEK PATIENTS ARE UP BY 66


FROM 6236 TO 6302


LAST WEEK WEEKLY RISE WAS 5922 - 6236 - RISE OF 314



STILL VERY REGIONALLY SPLIT AS YOU WILL SEE:-






BY REGIONS

Today - Up/down on day V last week


LONDON 1214 - UP 3 V 1235 DOWN 21 WK TO WK

MIDLANDS 1264 - UP 119 V 1174 / 1265 DOWN 1 WK TO WK

NE & YORKSHIRE 1189 - DOWN 6 V 1155 UP 34 WK TO WK


AND


NORTH WEST 943 - DOWN 24 V 924 UP 19 WK TO WK


LONDON, YORKSHIRE AND THE NORTH WEST HAD GOOD DAYS AND MIDLANDS WERE THE BIG FACTOR IN THE PATIENT INCREASE TODAY. OTHERWISE WITHOUT THEIR 119 PATIENT INCREASE NUMBERS WOULD HAVE FALLEN TODAY



The other smaller regions week to week

East 539 to 544 today - DOWN 3 ON DAY V UP 5 WK TO WK

South East 652 to 647 today - DOWN 50 ON DAY V DOWN 5 WK TO WK

And South West up from 471 to 501 today - UP 19 ON DAY V UP 30 WK TO WK
 
The Northern Baptist said:
As well as going after the vaccine reluctant section of our population, isn't it time to come down hard on the people with co-morbidities which have been brought on by their poor lifestyle choices and who are more likely to need hospital treatment and swamp the NHS? They are as big a problem as the people not wanting the vaccine.

Specifically being overweight and obese (which costs the NHS a lot of money in normal times), smokers, Type 2 diabetics and people with heart disease.

A few ideas:

- Putting obese ppl in exercise camps until they have reduced their weight to something approaching healthy
- Increase the tax/cut the benefits of these ppl
- Ban the overweight from restaurants or restrict their calorie intake when there to meals under 600kcal
Click to expand...
I hope this is a joke.
 
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