Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Bolton mentioned on the Today programme as a cluster of the India variant. I don't have any more details.

Doesn't necessarily mean anything bad - if associated with travel or an outbreak in a specific setting (workplace, place of worship, etc) - only really concerning if growing in the wider community due to transmission advantage or immune escape.

I suspected as much.

Any thoughts on why it took them so long to seem to make this problem public when we have been talking about it a week or so before that? It was impossible for me to miss and I am no expert.

Surely going public and taking measures to stem a fast spreading variant rather depend upon you NOT being a week late in seeing what is happening.

And if I could see it with no real expertise just a year's experience of data gathering there surely have to be people out there who were aware as long as I was about where this was heading?

After what happened in July/August also starting in Bolton ending up locking down much of the north west for months you would assume they knew the danger here.

It has really concerned me that they seem to have repeated that event over and over with the press conference by doctors just now affirming that one of these Indian variants seems to be a super spreader worse than the Kent one if I understood them correctly.

If that is in Bolton and allowed to spread for a week with only BM aware of that then something is VERY wrong somewhere and needs sorting pronto.

Not to mention many in here saw the danger of being too lax on travel from India via other countries. We seem incredibly slow at reacting to such dangers. And tardiness can set back months of restrictions. It is inexcusable folly.

 

[Gremlin]

well there may be something in that, but the MHRA has also advised it on health grounds, due to the very low IFR in young 'uns and the higher chance of blood clots (still low), so i guess it's partly that. 40s to 50s still need to get their arses in gear re vaccine take up as well. Up to May 2nd;

View attachment 16193

Completely misleading table - the '% vaccine uptake' is the number vaccinated divided by the number of people in the group NOT the number of people in the group who have been offered it. As others have noted, it's only recently started to be offered to >40s and not yet at all to <40s (the vaccinated numbers there will be from particular groups like NHS workers, people with existing conditions etc.). So you woudl expect the percentage in those groups to be low. The target is to get to them by the end of June.

 

[Healdplace]

The good (ish) news on this new variant which it seems IS responsible for why the North West has risen in cases in the past week or two with clusters in areas - with people that have families back in India it seems too - is that the evidence as yet is that the most vulnerable are still surviving it and most do not even get sick enough to need hospital and hardly any seem to have died even with it being a factor.

The vaccinations appear to work even against this super spreader - if not to stop you catching it then to do the job they are really meant to do - stop it being deadly.

Couple that with the fact that now 70% of those testing positive are under 40 and these are more often now the ones getting sick and being hospitalised (though with lower risk of death because of lack of comorbidities) THIS is the area they now have to address and drive up vaccinations in those younger ages.

The moves in recent weeks emphasising this all look to me to have been groundwork preparing for this change of tack

Todays press conference by the medics was clearly aimed at getting younger people to be vaccinated as they are now the real problem.

Ironically they are the most desperate for a return to normality but by not taking up the vaccines they are the ones putting that opening up at risk. This is the message we need to get across to those who on balance think it safer not to 'risk' a vaccine versus the 'chance' of catching Covid but not really suffering if they do, They need to see that will not save a normal Summer if cases spike and drive up NHS admissions.

We need young people who have had it to be mobilised and an urgent public messaging campaign to get their peers to think again using those in their age group who have had Covid and can warn it can be a lot worse than getting a jab.

 

[NeilYoungIsBack]

Todays press conference by the medics was clearly aimed at getting younger people to be vaccinated as they are now the real problem.

Ironically they are the most desperate for a return to normality but by not taking up the vaccines they are the ones putting that opening up at risk.

So, young people are to blame for not getting vaccinated when most of them haven't even been offered it yet.

Ok, Boomer.

 

[shemnel]

Completely misleading table - the '% vaccine uptake' is the number vaccinated divided by the number of people in the group NOT the number of people in the group who have been offered it. As others have noted, it's only recently started to be offered to >40s and not yet at all to <40s (the vaccinated numbers there will be from particular groups like NHS workers, people with existing conditions etc.). So you woudl expect the percentage in those groups to be low. The target is to get to them by the end of June.

the table is not misleading at all. the tables says how many people have had it, it is the most basic metric, but does not state how many have been offered it. So you should absolutely not read that table as 'who's been offered' i agree. I perhaps should have put it in a separate post to avoid crossover with the comments previous.

anyway, onwards, keep on jabbing.

 

[shemnel]

So, young people are to blame for not getting vaccinated when most of them haven't even been offered it yet.

Ok, Boomer.

i think she means they are the main remaining potentially problematic area to solve.

which i actually im not sure about either!! but it's semantics.

 

[Healdplace]

So, young people are to blame for not getting vaccinated when most of them haven't even been offered it yet.

Ok, Boomer.

Insult all you like if it makes you feel better. But the reality is that younger people ARE taking it up LESS when offered. That is the point.

I get why - the messaging over AZ has been a global mess and understandably driven hesitation. But that is being addressed by prioritising other vaccines to the under 40s. A wise move designed to reassure and increase up take.

Hence the need for proper messaging from peers as I said - to try to get across why vaccinations matter.

Unfortunately if too many younger people react as you did we will all be in trouble.

And no doubt you will blame the boomers for that too.

 

[Healdplace]

i think she means they are the main remaining potentially problematic area to solve.

which i actually im not sure about either!! but it's semantics.

Yes, for all sorts of reasons the younger you are the less likely you will be to have a jab - unless you have good reason to do so. But if cases drive restrictions not deaths - which they are going to do probably for the next few months - the key to keeping numbers low is vaccinating as many of the younger people as possible using whatever reassurances you can. As they are the root of current transmission as they are the least likely to have any degree of immunity.

There is nothing sinister in this and it is certainly not an attack on younger people. I am not THAT old I cannot recall the different perception on life age brings.

But just where we are at in the vaccination programme and the twin attack of super spreading variants and the issues caused by AZ in younger ages that had pretty obviously and understandably had some impact on confidence and created a balance of risks over having the vaccine and/or risking getting Covid with the likelihood of only modest symptoms.

Hence that PR campaign which I am sure will come trying to get across to the more reluctant amongst the young why it matters.

That is all I was saying. Nothing insulting to the young at all. I totally get why there will be hesitancy. But we need it to be minimised as low as possible to get through to the autumn in some kind of normality.

Come the autumn it will be time for the Boomers to listen as they then will need a third jab and plenty will be reluctant too.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Any thoughts on why it took them so long to seem to make this problem public

I'm not sure how long any data on variant prevalence in Bolton has been available.

Informative thread here from a PHE scientist quotes 7-21 days lag on sequencing data.



So it might genuinely be hot off the press that it's associated with the Indian variant.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

47 cases - was 34 last Friday,

0.4% positive - was 0.3% last week