Coronavirus (2021) thread

[unicorn]

Hospital data as taken from gov covid API. I've extracted Bolton NHS Trust plus 3 surrounding it (but not Salford and a couple of others). Data for Hospital Cases goes to ~11th May and new Admissions on the day to about ~9 May, so we're behind in a sense.

Bolton, moving about but i dont like that red line, a more solid pattern may emerge (may have already emerged in real life)

View attachment 16868

Yes, eleven admissions to Bolton hospitals is worrying. But zero deaths in the last week per latest data.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

And locking down everyone will make those fuckwits refusing suddenly take it? And all those that have or haven’t yet been offered it. Guess you’re not living in Bolton then? Get real

I think it will encourage more people to take it yes. There is an alternative.

 

[Tonster]

I think it will encourage more people to take it yes. There is an alternative.

And if they don’t? Lockdown for ever. Think it through

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I've seen this suggested but surely if the issue is with a spike of transmission, we'll have a massively bigger impact by doing the opposite - delaying second doses and instead getting 1st sides into the younger ages who have no immunity and are more likely to transmit.

I wouldn’t disagree but I think they might want to use up AZ as quickly as possible to clear the way for more first doses of Pfizer/Moderna as they’ll be the vast majority of vaccines going into cohorts 10-12.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Worth thinking about how quickly things could change.

There's some evidence that this strain is now a significant proportion of the total caseload. Let's say for arguments sake 30%, 700 or so.

It's been doubling as fast as weekly under current restrictions, and these restrictions relax next week.

*if* (huge if) that doubling rate continues, rather than getting worse, we'll have over 10k daily cases in a month.

But in the meantime, something like a million or so people a week are currently becoming immune through vaccination. 4 million more in that month.

Is that enough to stop an increase of that sort? Probably not, with maybe 30 million currently unvaccinated. But maybe not far off. If we did double that it would make a huge difference.

Let the May relaxation continue. Throw caution to the wind, vaccinate like hell for the next month with every last dose in the fridges and don't worry if we then can't follow up with exact timelines on 2nd doses. All the evidence is that delaying 2nd doses does no harm, and even improves efficacy.

 

[Tonster]

Worth thinking about how quickly things could change.

There's some evidence that this strain is now a significant proportion of the total caseload. Let's say for arguments sake 30%, 700 or so.

It's been doubling as fast as weekly under current restrictions, and these restrictions relax next week.

*if* (huge if) that doubling rate continues, rather than getting worse, we'll have over 10k daily cases in a month.

But in the meantime, something like a million or so people a week are currently becoming immune through vaccination. 4 million more in that month.

Is that enough to stop an increase of that sort? Probably not, with maybe 30 million currently unvaccinated. But maybe not far off. If we did double that it would make a huge difference.

Let the May relaxation continue. Throw caution to the wind, vaccinate like hell for the next month with every last dose in the fridges and don't worry if we then can't follow up with exact timelines on 2nd doses. All the evidence is that delaying 2nd doses does no harm, and even improves efficacy.

Surely surge vaccinations here are one of the solutions into the affected areas?

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 33 to 182 v 219

London UP 128 to 357 v 333 - biggest rise of the day when numbers fell mostly elsewhere Goes ahead of Yorkshire and is not far behind the North West now.

South East down 41 to 189 v 252

South West down 28 to 83 v 118







MIDLANDS

East down 48 to 139 v 270 - good fall wk to wk

West down 18 to 146 v 125



NORTH

North East down 34 to 74 v 55 - up slightly wk to wk but still lowest in England


Yorkshire down 42 to 291 v 350 (Down and still doing much better than the North West and down wk to wk too)




NORTH WEST DOWN 178 to 400 v 380. - Falls by EXACTLY the same as it rose yesterday and though up week to week by a much less worrying number. But still easily the worst in UK and week to week and top scorers in the UK by a whopping 245. We know why.


GREATER MANCHESTER

Down 103 day to day to 262 - From NW fall of 178

Up 54 week to week. More than the entire NW rise of 20.

So better for GM but still over par for the region. But not as much as it was.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Surely surge vaccinations here are one of the solutions into the affected areas?

Absolutely. But if its a real problem, it's a problem everywhere, so local control, whilst a good thing, will not solve the national problem.

I don't think there's enough data to know how big a problem this really is yet, but I, at least, thing we should just do everything we can now to get out of this nightmare!

 

[Bluemoonadam]

Sorry mate. Missed the byline off BBC live feed...

People in Bolton have been queuing for the vaccination centre at the Essa Academy

Just down the road from me

 

[Tonster]

Absolutely. But if its a real problem, it's a problem everywhere, so local control, whilst a good thing, will not solve the national problem.

I don't think there's enough data to know how big a problem this really is yet, but I, at least, thing we should just do everything we can now to get out of this nightmare!

How is it a problem everywhere? Cases are just over 2,000 today which is fairly typical (if not a little lower than the weekly average) of the daily average we’ve been at for two months now.
Wasn’t the whole plan, to test and isolate and now vaccinate the problem areas?