Coronavirus (2021) thread

[splinter]

I hate it when people do this. They come and piss at the urinal next to you, or park their car next to yours when there's plenty of space elsewhere.

Very weird behaviour and even moreso with the backdrop of a pandemic.

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

So you’re the sink pisser…

 

[Healdplace]

So todays UK deaths with out of hospital England to add are 18 - though the 2 from 2020 might get deducted.

Last week it was 12 which became 13 on all settings.

18 on 3 June is the highest since 20 on 11 May.

Three nations cases today are 1187 - last week it was 798

 

[ted the grass]

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

Harder to hit when you're moving...i'll give you that.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I *think* (will stand corrected here) that their 100,000 is the total cases per day they expect in the country, not just the one's which are picked up from tests, if that makes sense?

Eg perhaps 30,000 positive tests but believe another 70,000 will become infected on that day, in a sort of Zoe estimate. (30k still sounds too high btw, just used that figure to try and clarify).

Having re-looked at it it does seem that the Warwick model is reflecting what they think will be the ‘actual daily infections’ as opposed to the positive tests, which I suppose will be confirmed or not by the ONS data in July. They think we’re already at about 50000, so will be interesting to see.

Not only that, but the modelling for the next 2 weeks should be the 2 that are most interesting given that they are models that assume we did step 4 next Monday, which we obviously aren’t now doing, but any predicated deaths and hospitalisations will, of course, already be ‘baked in’ as Patrick Vallance is fond of saying.

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

 

[splinter]

So you’re the sink pisser…

I think we've all been there ;)

 

[ayrshire_blue]

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

I hope so! Only this morning I became aware of that earlier projection, otherwise I'd have posted it along with the other data last night as it's certainly relevant. As I say, I hope the models from them, Imperial and elsewhere from last night are all miles off.

 

[Del_Bosque]

 

[Blue Maverick]

However a venue that has a licence to lose may think differently…

Has anyone lost their licence? I’ve not heard of a single place and very much doubt they will, not enough people to police it and all they gave to do is say we asked and they said they were exempt.

 

[True_Blue69]

Having re-looked at it it does seem that the Warwick model is reflecting what they think will be the ‘actual daily infections’ as opposed to the positive tests, which I suppose will be confirmed or not by the ONS data in July. They think we’re already at about 50000, so will be interesting to see.

Not only that, but the modelling for the next 2 weeks should be the 2 that are most interesting given that they are models that assume we did step 4 next Monday, which we obviously aren’t now doing, but any predicated deaths and hospitalisations will, of course, already be ‘baked in’ as Patrick Vallance is fond of saying.

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

If correct and the actual daily infections is so much higher than reported, the infection to death rate must be incredibly low, possibly lower than standard flu.