Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Yeah % wise fine but as overall figure grows the actual number becomes concerning all the same. The 1300 today isn't far off 50% of the peak in January.

On another note, I read earlier that hospital admissions (UK) are running about 4% of all cases with a 10 day lag. So for example if there were 100 cases in the UK today, in 10 days time there would be approximately 40 admissions.

indeed. Not minimising the concerns. Todays numbers are pretty worrying all round. But the lower the % of the fully vaccinated the better as if those start to escalate we might be worrying about vaccine evasion and that would be really disastrous in the presence of this variant.

This avoidable mess must surely end in heads rolling given it was so easy to see coming and was seen coming. Just not by those who made the decision.

 

[splinter]

The deaths will be mainly made up from unvaccinated adults ones that have refused to be jabbed. Heard first hand now off 2 people working at Bolton and MRI that the people long staying in hospital and dying haven't been vaccinated at all. The government are absolutely correct, vaccination is the only way out of this.

Correct

 

[ayrshire_blue]

4 admissions not 40

Haha, I missed a 0 off the case number I intended to type. Sorted thanks.

 

[splinter]

@Healdplace have you seen parts of Blackburn and Darwen..the numbers look very bad..

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data:

188 admissions - third successive day in the 180s and hghest yet.

But only 58 from NW - down from 72.

East tripled to 19 and South West quadrupled from 3 to 13.

The England patients rose by its highest in weeks - up 65 on the day to 1122

Last week it rose by 30 to 906 -so week to week at 216 the biggrest rise in months.

Ventilators also up by 5 to 197 v 140 last week. An even bigger percentage rise of about 40% which infers really sick people are more common than they were as they are riing faster than patients are.

North West is by far the biggest driver of these very ill ventilated patients. Still going up and up as a percentage of the England total sadly. More deaths in the NW like the 9 today are a certainky I am sorry to say.

Whilst NW patients today rose by just 9 of the 65 to 388 (which is actually a hopeful sign along with the admissions fll) the number on ventilators rose again by 4 of the 5 in the country.

Up to 79 now of the 197 - that is a shocking rise of 33 in the week - 33 of the 57 UK rise was in the NW.

No other region close to that number *(London on 53 is nearest - up 6 in the week. Before Delta about 3 weeks ago London was above North West on every measure.

NW then had 173 patients and 21 ventilators. It now has 388 and 79. As you see the ratio of ventilated patients is well in excess of the rise in patients which is a concerning stat imo. But I have not seen it mentiponed as yet.

 

[Healdplace]

@Healdplace have you seen parts of Blackburn and Darwen..the numbers look very bad..

No I just do not have the time to follow everywhere with so much going on. Can you summarise please?

As I noted earlier NW had 9 of the 16 England deaths today and 3 of those were in the Blackburn area and another 3 in Lancashire.

And it was the worst in England once Bolton dropped a bit and sadly the lag tp deaths will be inevitable.

Blackburn's Vaccination data shows 70,4% first dose (up in last 7 days from 69.2%)

And both doses 48.1% (up in last 7 days from 44.4%)

For comparison Bolton has gone 73.3 to 74.4% on first doses and 49.9% to 52.3% on both

So Bolton is ahead but not by much.

Manchester - biggest GM problem right now - on that basis has gone from

52.9 to 55.7% first doses - a bigger rise but way below both Bolton and Blackburn

And 31.1 to 33.3% on both doses much less than the other 2 in percentage rise and miles behind on numbers

Manchester clearly needs action on vaccination numbers and is not getting it. Meanwhile cases soar.

Three times Bolton now in Manchester.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Take up in over 40s bottoming out between 70% and 80%? Not great. Although see caveat at bottom right corner, not sure how much of a difference it makes if significant.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East UP 99 to 439 V 427

London UP 57 to 1225 V 1058

South East UP 116 to 892 V 651

South West UP 227 to 837 V 384

The new hot spot in the UK is taking shape sadly. Huge increases have been happening here now day after day.




MIDLANDS



East UP 14 to 454 V 352

West UP 272 to 786 V 473 - Very notavle rise here too today. About 5 times where it was a month ago.







NORTH



North East UP 80 to 647 V 320 - Doubled in the week and up 6 times in a month


Yorkshire UP 139 to 941 V 607 - also nor showing signs of upward motion.



AND

NORTH WEST UP 701 to 2858 V 1976 - Massive daily rise - the biggest chunk of the whole UK rise today. And week to week up even more after being quite stable for around 10 days.




Past weeks NW numbers are 1976 - 2317 - 2191 - 2134 - 2262 - 2017 - 2157 - 2858

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 1158 - 1643 - 1755 - 1752 - 1605 - 1673 - 1840 - 2112

GM numbers in past week 984 - 1191 - 1098 - 1037 - 1103 - 1014 - 925 - 1341

 

[splinter]

View attachment 19476

Take up in over 40s bottoming out between 70% and 80%? Not great. Although see caveat at bottom right corner, not sure how much of a difference it makes if significant.

45-49 I want my second jab ASAP

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1341 - UP 416 on Yesterday - from NW Rise of 701.Well over 50% in GM is worst in recent days.

Wk to wk UP 357 when the NW rises by 882 - which is much better than expectations of around 441.

So GM had another good day wk to wk relative to rest of the region but numbers creeping up day to day.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 121 / UP 33 / UP 18

BURY 109 / UP 24 / UP 41

MANCHESTER 335 / UP 129 / UP 112

OLDHAM 93 / UP 33 / UP 31

ROCHDALE 79 / UP 7 / UP 15

SALFORD 137 / UP 33 / UP 6

STOCKPORT 93 / UP 22 / UP 16

TAMESIDE 98 / UP 42 / UP 36

TRAFFORD 83 / UP 16 / UP 16

WIGAN 193 / UP 77 / UP 66




Something we have not seen in a while every single borough up day to day and week to week. Some more so than others.

Manchester's rises are scary and Wigan given relative size possibly worse.