Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Growth rate is slowing, may even level out before last night & then Freedom come into play.

Maybe.

Personally, I'd be very cautious about extrapolating changes in case rates, unless we have a good understanding of what is driving those changes.

Here's a graph of the ratio of changes in case rates - each point is the ratio of cases on the day to the cases seven days earlier.



Note the steadily rising trend through May as Delta took hold.

Now, you can extrapolate the recent numbers down (pink line), or you can extrapolate the longer trend horizontally (green line). Either is perfectly reasonable, it just depends on whether you think there's an underlying mechanism behind recent drops, or it's just noise in the data on a longer term trend.

I wouldn't be bold enough to pick either, and changes next week might blow it out of the water anyway.



Eventually immunity through vaccination and infection should drive that trend in the direction of the pink line, but it could be any time from now until late into the summer. Scotland is still falling, so maybe we will follow the pink.

 

[crooky]

It shows you the options first before you cancel it

I brought mine forward last week , my arm still bloody killing

Cool good to know. I think that's a new option?

Just tried it and it said there was nothing available but it's only just been 5 weeks since my first so to be expected.

Thanks for letting us know, as it is worth checking.

 

[Marvin]

No of first jabs is on a downward trend, looks like there is 10% of the population who are not wanting to be vaccinated. Would love to see how that group breaks down by ethnicity, age etc.

If you want you can download the data and get at the actual rates per age group because the colour code isn't particularly clear.

 

[feelymcfeel]

But you can only search if you cancel your original appointments right?

It shows you the options first before you cancel it

I brought mine forward last week , my arm still bloody killing

Like Hutchy said, it shows you what's available first, then you cancel, then you rebook.

It does only show you availibility at the site you're currently booked at. I moved mine from the MMC to Sportcity though.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Never said people didn’t die of COVID. I’m saying now. How many people are dying of COVID. Not enough to justify continued restrictions considering that those vulnerable are vaccinated. Infections will never go away, it’s endemic, so we need to get on with life. People will die but not in great numbers.

the answer is 0.1% of the cases so at the moment with 35,000 that equates to 35 deaths.
Basically not many anymore and the percentage is dropping every day, Even half a million cases is only 500 deaths which is still a third of the level it was. Too many idiots quoting case numbers around shitting themselves. At least Javid knows what he's doing

 

[Marvin]

Maybe.

Personally, I'd be very cautious about extrapolating changes in case rates, unless we have a good understanding of what is driving those changes.

Here's a graph of the ratio of changes in case rates - each point is the ratio of cases on the day to the cases seven days earlier.

View attachment 21186

Note the steadily rising trend through May as Delta took hold.

Now, you can extrapolate the recent numbers down (pink line), or you can extrapolate the longer trend horizontally (green line). Either is perfectly reasonable, it just depends on whether you think there's an underlying mechanism behind recent drops, or it's just noise in the data on a longer term trend.

I wouldn't be bold enough to pick either, and changes next week might blow it out of the water anyway.

View attachment 21187

Eventually immunity through vaccination and infection should drive that trend in the direction of the pink line, but it could be any time from now until late into the summer. Scotland is still falling, so maybe we will follow the pink.

Or you could look at data in the clusters where the infection first started because the national effect is the sum of infections on a local level summed together. Hence people on here have been looking at individual Manchester boroughs to see if they can detect a fall in the first worst affected areas. If you can, then you can view that locality and consider a likely period of growth?

 

[artfuldodger]

So I assume you haven’t visited any pubs to see the lack of adherence to restrictions either :)

Next weeks lifting of restrictions won’t make a huge overall difference to cases in my view as lip service only is being paid by younger groups in particular. Cases will continue to rip through the unvaccinated & uninfected for a few more weeks before fizzling out.

Hopefully!!

As a parent of late teens/early 20s, I can only see nightclubs and festivals making any difference. Most other stuff, they’re already doing, certainly whilst the football has been on!!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Or you could look at data in the clusters where the infection first started because the national effect is the sum of infections on a local level summed together. Hence people on here have been looking at individual Manchester boroughs to see if they can detect a fall in the first worst affected areas. If you can, then you can view that locality and consider a likely period of growth?

Impossible to generalise as local conditions are quite different I think?

And even if you believed it was possible, what conclusion do you draw from (just for instance) Bolton?

Cases are going to surge again?

Cases reach a plateau then fall?



I certainly don't feel confident extrapolating anything from that

 

[grunge]

No of first jabs is on a downward trend, looks like there is 10% of the population who are not wanting to be vaccinated. Would love to see how that group breaks down by ethnicity, age etc.

hitting 90% would be bloody good going in all fairness.

 

[Len Rum]

Growth rate is slowing, may even level out before last night & then Freedom come into play.

Oh yeah 'growth rates'.
LIke when deaths went from 10 to 20 in a day in the first wave i.e. a 100% and then later on a daily increase of 900 to 1000 was hailed as a 'success' because the increase was much lower - a mere 11% ( approx).
Those growth rates.