Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I have a 1 week old baby.
Wife's mum hasn't seen baby yet as she has not been jabbed and won't do a covid test (has mental health issues) and wife isn't keen on her seeing her due to covid risk. We are all going to be at a christening together though in about a month so will all be in the same room regardless.

Would you let the grandparent see the child now?
 
Healdplace said:
I asked this question the other day. If we are not close to herd immunity WHAT is the data we get every week telling us that I post in here that over 90% as of 2 weeks ago had antibodies in the best UK nation and not much below in the rest and every single week it rises by several % points - one assumes both from vaccination and catching it.

These numbers must mean something unless 99% is not herd immunity which we are almost at by now in some areas, Or does it have to be say 1000%.

Or is there no such thing with Covid due to regular mutation?
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Delta Natural R0 (without restrictions) is 5-7
So the base Herd immunity for Delta may be as high as 1-(1/7) = 86% or as low as 1-(1/5) = 80%.
Antibodies being at 90% suggests that herd immunity has been reached but it actually hasn't been reached for a multitude of reasons:
1. The immunity is spread against the original (infection + 1 jab of vaccine + 2 jabs of vaccine) , the Spanish variant (autumn surge) and Alpha (winter/spring surge push) and it degrades somewhat against Delta to say an overall 80% of what it was (90%) or so making a modelling style assumption like this gets us to a population immunity to Delta of somewhere around 70%
2. The younger age cohorts are barely vaccinated and only have around 30% immunity. Cohorts tend to meet up amongst themselves so there is a large chunk of the population to spread amongst and infection will leak out into other cohorts.

This means Delta has a sizesble chunk of the population to go through till herd immunity is actually reached.
Back of a fag packet calculations say:
- About 13 3m mostly young people could catch Delta.
- 1/3 will be asymptomatic leaving 9m MAXIMUM actual cases in a nice binomial distribution till herd immunity impacts the spread with maximum figures of around 95,759 hospitalisations (@average bed occupancy of around 7 days) and a maximum of 6,250 deaths. ALL cases nicely following a double binomial distribution model interrupted by the school holidays. I expect the actual numbers to undershoot this.
 
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117 M34 said:
I have a 1 week old baby.
Wife's mum hasn't seen baby yet as she has not been jabbed and won't do a covid test (has mental health issues) and wife isn't keen on her seeing her due to covid risk. We are all going to be at a christening together though in about a month so will all be in the same room regardless.

Would you let the grandparent see the child now?
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My boy just turned 15 months and still hasn’t met his grandma due to COVID and travel restrictions. Let her see him ASAP. I know it’s killing my mum not having met her first grandchild
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



Numbers are sadly escalating rapidly now.



ADMISSIONS (2 days old recall - so Sunday)

502 - first over 500 in months. Up from 442 day before and 390 the previous Sunday.

The NW 104 of those 502 - down from 106 day before and lowest in 4 days - was 80 previous Sunday.

But NW NOT the most.

NE & Yorkshire had that on 127 up from 103 previous day and 102 the previous Sunday.


PATIENTS

UP 172 in past 24 hours to 2970 - V 1998 last Tuesday - up 972 - almost a 50% rise wk to wk

Previous wk rise was 553 from 1445 and wk before 144 from 1301.

As you can see the increase is going up and up,


Regions: daily rises and v last week

East up 9 to 151 V 98 last wk

London level at 514 V 381 last wk

Midlands up 26 to 525 V 334 last wk

NE & Yorkshire up 51 to 643 V 376 last wk -----CLEARLY WHERE THE PROBLEMS ARE RIGHT NOW

South East up 26 to 206 V 139 last wk

South West up 26 to 159 V 100 last wk


AND NORTH WEST Up 34 to 772 V 570 last wk Numbers are becoming very even all round


VENTILATORS

UP 37 in past 24 hours to 470 V 353 last Tuesday - up 117 about a third wk to wk.

Previous wk rise - up 93 from 259 and week before up 30 from 229


Regions: daily rises and V last week


East up 7 to 26 V 19

London down 2 to 101 V 74

Midlands up 8 to 84 V 58

NE & Yorkshire up 10 to 84 V 55

South East up 2 to 30 V 16

South West up 2 to 19 V 14


AND NORTH WEST UP 10 to 126 V 117 - A big rise today sadly but a modest week to week rise compared with elsewhere
 
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Healdplace said:
They are implicitly backing him in the eyes of the public by standing next to him as he announces policy,

If they clearly disagreed it was their public duty not to put standing on a podium ahead of saying this is wrong.

I can see why the government is proposing what it is - backing down would be very harmful to them after foolishly saying there would be no more lockdowns after this one (which has now been quietly dumped as t was never credible policy). But also there is a point we have fast approached where you have done pretty much what you can do to protect people and so what will be will be and getting it over with now - not in the Winter - is preferable.

That is what I think is driving what we are doing and it is a gamble but one I understand.

What I do not understand is if the models in science are pointing up 10K or more in hospital in August and 2000 dying in the next 4 weeks should they not be making clear and Boris letting them do so that this is a plan we are following that is - not proven to work - may not end restrictions any tine soon - and might have to be reversed quickly if it starts to go off track of estimates?

I know people are frustrated and getting them to oblige would be nigh impossible.

But there is a sort of whiff of the unethical about letting people be merry and get sick aware there will be consequences for some of them in their family. Perhaps many.

It is a mess with no perfect solution, I guess someone has to try this way out and cross fingers.
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They are backing him because the numbers for cases later in the Autumn/Winter will be a lot higher than if they happen in the summer.
We have to have to get to a point where our immune systems face Covid variants in a similar way that we are able to tolerate flu.
 
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grunge said:
for a bit of a reference here. the modelling can only model what scenarios the government as for. so a lot of the key criteria is locked for the modellers.

Click to expand...

Nice information. But as usual garbage assumptions in garbage model data out
 
NorthamptonBlue said:
If it helps at all, I’ve had two doctors explain the situation just yesterday. At some stage, we have to get back to ‘normal’. If we wait for the vaccination rollout to complete, then we would reopen about the end of October, just in time for the winter flu season. Opening earlier, whilst imperfect, at least sees the schools on holiday and events mostly moving outdoors. According to them, it is either open up now or wait until next year. Waiting until next year, however, assumes that people would obey the rules. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that people are prepared to do so as everybody is so fed up.

I guess life just isn’t perfect.
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That is pretty much how I summed it up yesterday -----BUT that elephant in the room of the virus mutating dangerously by letting millions catch it is indeed there and why I said yesterday this is a big risk that if they have got it wrong will be rolled back fast but probably too late.

What are the odds of guessing right or wrong? I will let the experts here say, But we have engaged on a very risky gamble and as I said last night it would not astound me if we end up back in lockdown sooner than expected regardless of promises.

WE may well either save the world by getting this right or endanger the planet.

Boris will go down in history in two very different ways whatever happens

And it may be hard to call though I suspect the odds are on our side as that above article seems to presume this is an engineered virus not a normal one. Or at least one being tinkered with in Wuhan to see if it could be engineered,

It might be but its pretty unlikely and a huge assumption to base chilling prophecies around.
 
M18CTID said:
Anyone else expecting a spike in cases as a result of so many being out on the lash for the match on Sunday?
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Yes but our youth need antibodies to reduce the virulence of the next variant.
Many won't have the vaccine so they need to catch it or the next variant WILL HAVE a worse impact.
The human race are now in an imunity arms race much like that with flu.
 
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