Coronavirus (2021) thread

[M18CTID]

Not impossible that we've peaked but extremely unlikely.

Week on week increase is 41%, exactly 14 day doubling, which is what it's been for the last couple of months or so now.

Why would it stop so suddenly? If it was the numbers of susceptible falling you'd expect a gradual drop.

Plenty more to infect out there, only just over 50% of the population double vaxxed.

But the one thing absolutely everyone agrees on is that there is huge uncertainty on the trajectory from here.

There's been quite a bit of chatter about tests being hard to come by in some areas, and the turnaround time has gone up. I'd speculate they're most likely drivers of a couple of lower days, but it could just be random.

Big question is removal of restrictions vs schools out driving in opposite directions. Who knows?

Totally agree that it's too early to say but it has to peak at some point and can't keep going up forever. I know it's only 3 days but I take comfort from the pattern of daily cases from Saturday, Sunday, and yesterday compared to the same 3 days the week before:

Sat July 17th - 54,349 cases
Sun July 18th - 48,023 cases
Mon July 19th - 39,950 cases

Sat July 10th - 31,921 cases
Sun July 11th - 31,282 cases
Mon July 12th - 33,918 cases

Over a million tests yesterday too. Put it this way - how many of us were expecting less than 40,000 cases yesterday? I know I wasn't

 

[west didsblue]

This from Israel Health Ministry, which is real world data, from May onwards, in a heavily vaccinated population.

Coronavirus patients who recovered from the virus were far less likely to become infected during the latest wave of the pandemic than people who were vaccinated against COVID, according to numbers presented to the Israeli Health Ministry.

Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination.

More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.

Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated.

With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.

By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.

Slight flaw in that study. Of the 7700 new cases where 72 were known to have been in people infected previously, there are no figures (and nor could there be) of previously infected people who were asymptomatic and therefore not known about. It proves nothing, and a search on the web doesn't come up with any proper clinical studies that proves that hypothesis. On the other hand there are no shortage of studies that demonstrate the opposite.

 

[M18CTID]

If only this was the case unfortunately as the disease mutates its reinfecting people, thankfully the vaccine programme and protection inferred to people who've already had the disease are keeping hospital admissions and deaths lower than earlier in the pandemic for now.

I appreciate that people can get reinfected but what are the chances that someone who had Covid 6 months ago, for example, will get infected with Delta now compared to someone who has never been infected? Are there any figures out there showing the chances of reinfection versus those who have never had Covid?

 

[Bluewonder]

Of course human rights matter thankfully we live in arguably the best democracy in the World but in some exception circumstances the human rights of a minority have to take a back seat to the human rights of the vast majority,this is one of those times.

That isn't how human rights work, pal. Especially with something as horribly discriminatory as vaccine passports.

 

[hammocity]

Only cvnts think human rights don't matter, either.
And this is coming from someone who's had both jabs.

That's fine as long as those who refuse the jab don't expect to get treated like the rest of us. No holidays for one, probably no health care work as well, Italy has already implemented the latter, I expect other Countries to follow.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Of course human rights matter thankfully we live in arguably the best democracy in the World but in some exception circumstances the human rights of a minority have to take a back seat to the human rights of the vast majority,this is one of those times.

in terms of having human rights curtailed in a pandemic if it’s a choice

having pubs clubs and restaurants closed again and nobody can use them.

Or

having them open and you have to show you have been double jabbed To go in.

I think the second one is the lesser curtailment human rights option.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Totally agree that it's too early to say but it has to peak at some point and can't keep going up forever. I know it's only 3 days but I take comfort from the pattern of daily cases from Saturday, Sunday, and yesterday compared to the same 3 days the week before:

Sat July 17th - 54,349 cases
Sun July 18th - 48,023 cases
Mon July 19th - 39,950 cases

Sat July 10th - 31,921 cases
Sun July 11th - 31,282 cases
Mon July 12th - 33,918 cases

Over a million tests yesterday too. Put it this way - how many of us were expecting less than 40,000 cases yesterday? I know I wasn't

You're reading far more into a couple of days data than I would.

I'd give odds of about 10/1 on for either the daily or weekly records for this wave being broken in days to come. And probably about 2/1 on us going over 100,000 daily at some point (though maybe testing capacity will limit that).

On "has to stop at some point", most likely peak seems to be 2nd half August from modelling, but with a lot of uncertainty.

But, you could be right. Not beyond realms of possibility.

 

[i kne albert davy]

I appreciate that people can get reinfected but what are the chances that someone who had Covid 6 months ago, for example, will get infected with Delta now compared to someone who has never been infected? Are there any figures out there showing the chances of reinfection versus those who have never had Covid?

I could find any on re-infection of a different variant but already having had the original strain and/or two doses of the vaccine doe's seem to provide some protection, our boss came back from Spain and his day two test was positive, he's been double jabbed and is still really ill. Without the vaccine I think he'd been in hospital or worse.

 

[west didsblue]

Totally agree that it's too early to say but it has to peak at some point and can't keep going up forever. I know it's only 3 days but I take comfort from the pattern of daily cases from Saturday, Sunday, and yesterday compared to the same 3 days the week before:

Sat July 17th - 54,349 cases
Sun July 18th - 48,023 cases
Mon July 19th - 39,950 cases

Sat July 10th - 31,921 cases
Sun July 11th - 31,282 cases
Mon July 12th - 33,918 cases

Over a million tests yesterday too. Put it this way - how many of us were expecting less than 40,000 cases yesterday? I know I wasn't

If today's figures are less than 40,000 it would be more significant. Sunday and Monday figures are usually artificially low.

 

[True_Blue69]

That's been repeated a lot on here in last couple of days. Could you post the evidence for it?

This was posted here last night by @Elbow beards seems reputable, says the opposite.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/why-covid-19-vaccines-offer-better-protection-than-infection.html

Was an Israeli study using real world data. Pretty sure someone who appears to be well read on these things such as yourself can find it, surprised you haven’t already.