Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Interestingly N I is still going in the right direction

9 deaths - was 11 last week

1225 cases - was 1485 last week

Presumably we will see a difference in the next week or two as schools return in N Ireland an England.

Hard to see cases not escalating as a direct result given what has occurred in Scotland.

 

[Healdplace]

So the three nation deaths today are: 12. With England to come.

Last week it was 16 at this stage. England later added 33 to total 49.

 

[Healdplace]

And the three nation cases total today is:- 10, 695

Last week it was just 6301. So big wk to wk jump up.

England later added 25, 952 to total 32, 253.

Yesterday England posted 25, 118 cases - so hard to see numbers today below 36K given the three nations increase.

If these rises are anything like what will follow in England once schools return we are looking towards a record high number of cases - maybe 80K at some point.

It is difficult to see why England would not follow the trend as our strategy to vaccinate 12 and up is weeks later than it should have been given that we knew when schools were returning..

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland cases are certainly flat and maybe inching down:

Past week of 7 day totals:

11, 672 - 11, 964 - 11, 886 - 11, 917 - 11, 642 - 11, 664 - 11, 482 - 10, 819

 

[Healdplace]

61 all settings deaths-(up from 49 last Sunday) so 49 added from England v33 last Sunday

33, 196 cases - UP 790 on yesterday V 32, 253 last Sunday - UP just 943 in week despite over 5000 up wk to wk in Scotland and Wales alone v last week.

All the rises in the other nations.

England just 22, 501 cases today - down from 25, 118 yesterday & 25, 952 last Sunday

Lowest England numbers since 10 August.

Pretty odd how England is going the opposite way to the other nations. Or certainly Scotland and Wales.

Would schools make THIS much difference? Cases in that age group have been high all Summer when not in school - even in England.

 

[shackattack]

Went Brighton away yesterday and beforehand we were informed that to enter the Amex you would have to provide either proof of vaccination status or proof of a recent negative test. We arrived with plenty of time around 1.30pm with no queues at all and apart from the usual search was asked to show proof of neither. Not sure about how other stadiums address it , but we can hardly be surprised at increased cases.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HIGHLIGHTS

Everywhere down but North West has now re-established itself as the region with the most cases and London is falling like a stone in last few days - just as the Zoe data earlier predicted.

The regions are all pretty close now.

Zoe also got Bolton & Stockport right. Worst GM numbers today up week to week by most. A lot of boroughs well down also as Zoe shows today. Five of the ten boroughs below 100.

Stockport did have its lowest score this week but still high given Manchester had its lowest in ages only 36 ahead of Stockport and sub 200 again. Manchester well down wk to wk. Stockport up 22 and Bolton up even more wk to wk - by 47.

Oddly despite the above Stockport gained 4 Pop Score points on Trafford today as they are up 19 wk to wk too.

Also got Tameside's big improvement right and it fell under 100 cases by 51 on the day.

Not often it gets this much right.

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER NUMBERS


MANCHESTER 166 - DOWN 92 on day & DOWN 71 week to week

STOCKPORT 130 - DOWN 9 on day & UP 22 week to week

BOLTON 118 - UP 23 on day & UP 47 week to week

WIGAN 114 - DOWN 21 on day & DOWN 10 week to week

TRAFFORD 114 - UP 4 on day & UP 19 week to week

TAMESIDE 98 - DOWN 51 on day & DOWN 20 week to week

SALFORD 89 - DOWN 50 on day & UP 3 week to week

BURY 70 - DOWN 22 on the day & UP 8 week to week

OLDHAM 64 - DOWN 44 on day & DOWN 30 week to week

ROCHDALE 64 - DOWN 12 on day & DOWN 24 week to week


Just a handful of boroughs not posting good numbers toda. Down day to day and wk to wk with some low numbers too. ~

Bolton easily had the worst day - as Zoe predicted - which is a concern given it was still the best in GM yesterday.

Stockport fell day to day but was up week to week but not by so much.

Its cases in past 7 days have been 180 - 139 - 139 - 170 - 140 - 139 - 130. Really that is pretty flat and trending down VERY slowly.


POP Scores

Manchester up just 29 to 14, 874 - lowest Pop Score here in weeks. Leading GM on highest Pop Score by just 7 from Oldham who were up just 27 to 14, 867.

Trafford up 48 to 11, 659 , whereas Stockport was up 44 to 11, 553

Neither as low as many GM boroughs today but Trafford's cases up more due to lower POPulation.

These are the two lowest overall Pop scores in GM with Stockport's lead up by 4 to 106.



Tameside up 43 to 12, 784 - with a much better day.


Bolton up 41 - most in quite a while - to 14, 154.

Happily still no sign of a big increase. But not much sign of a fall either.

Bury up 37 to 13, 723.

Rochdale matched Manchester up just 29 (sub 30 pop rises have been few lately) to 14, 372

Salford had a good day too up just 34 to 14, 469.

And Wigan also up 34 to 13, 798

So Pop Score wise Oldham had the best day on 27 and Trafford the worst on 48.

 

[Healdplace]

GM & NW NUMBERS


North West 3106 cases - down 338 on yesterday. And up from 2982 last Sunday by 124.


GM today 1027 - down 269 on yesterday - much more than the expected fall from NW 338.

And

GM week to week - DOWN 56 - when NW was UP 124 on last week.

So even better than the day to day falling by a lot - here whilst the region rises GM goes down - which means a very good day for GM all told.

 

[Healdplace]

REGIONAL CASE NUMBERS:


SOUTH


East 2197 - down 81 from yesterday V 2707 last week - The Southern region falls are why England cases are going down.

London 2577 - down 695 from yesterday V 2977 last week

South East 3199 - down 512 from yesterday V 4213 last week - HUGE WEEK TO WEEK DROP HERE Though still just ahead of the NW.

South West 3003 - down 165 from yesterday V 3397 last week.

As I said the big falls in the south are creating the England anomaly v the rest of the nations.

But note SW higher than London - almost unheard of - but Summer holidays will be a factor.




MIDLANDS



East 2187 - down 197 from yesterday V 2553 last week

West 2527 - UP 131 from yesterday V 2958 last week

THE WEST MIDLANDS IS NOW THE EPICENTRE UP BOTH DAY TO DAY AND WEEK TO WEEK AGAINST THE TREND.

It is struggling most in the hospital data too. Combined Midlands number is 4714.

Easily the most.



NORTH


North East 893 - first sub 1000 number in a while. DOWN 560 on yesterday V 1192 last week

Yorkshire 2494 - down 68 from yesterday V 2597 last week

NE falling wk to wk clearly but Yorkshire is just about down by 103


AND

NORTH WEST 3106 - down 338 from yesterday (Best in North) V 2982 - so sadly UP week to week but by only 124.

So more evidence of the pancake effect.

GREATER MANCHESTER

1027 - down 269 on yesterday V 1083 last week - down 56



GM % of NW today is 33.1% - That is the lowest split I can recall in months. Around 42% is 'par' from population.

Last Sunday the GM % of NW was 36.3% And that was one of the lowest on record.