Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Well Wisher said:
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Interesting and much edited piece by someone of whom I know nothing nor does he give any indication of his qualifications to make the assertions he does . He rambles on using stats to justify his point of view but the article didn't say it was a pandemic of the unvaccinated. It said the majority of ICU beds were occupied by the unvaccinated (not just hospital admissions). The video never mentioned that at all. In other words he is the social media version of "the fat bloke down the pub" who has a point of view but tries to convince everyone who will listen that he is the expert.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Am I right in saying they test far less than us too?
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We test 4x more I believe but we need to remember that a positive COVID case does not mean an ill person. Testing cannot be compared like for like vs different countries.

The UK for example has a lot of cases but we test more asymptomatic people than anyone else. For example we regularly test kids who are very unlikely to be symptomatic but if positive they go down as a positive case. You can see this in the big case drops around half terms as the testing stops.

The greatest concern is if a country doesn't test much, has a high positivity rate and is seeing a large increase in hospitalisations/deaths. Germany currently fits into this bracket as do many countries in Eastern Europe so it's certainly going to be a rough few months for them.

For us I think we're going to see big falls in admissions/deaths as the boosters take effect but cases won't change. The only great worry here is the continued risk to the unvaccinated. For everyone else who is vaccinated and isn't at risk, the pandemic is virtually over and COVID represents a far less severe disease more on par with something like flu.
 

Hospitals halt chemotherapy treatments and organ transplants amid COVID surge in the Netherlands​

Some Dutch hospitals have halted chemotherapy treatments and organ transplants to free up intensive care beds for a surging number of COVID patients.

Although some 85% of the adult Dutch population has been fully vaccinated against COVID, new cases hit a record high of 23,709 in 24 hours on Wednesday and are up almost 40% on a weekly basis.

Experts have warned, that if the virus is not contained, hospitals will reach full capacity in little more than a week.
 
BlueHammer85 said:

Hospitals halt chemotherapy treatments and organ transplants amid COVID surge in the Netherlands​

Some Dutch hospitals have halted chemotherapy treatments and organ transplants to free up intensive care beds for a surging number of COVID patients.

Although some 85% of the adult Dutch population has been fully vaccinated against COVID, new cases hit a record high of 23,709 in 24 hours on Wednesday and are up almost 40% on a weekly basis.

Experts have warned, that if the virus is not contained, hospitals will reach full capacity in little more than a week.
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Halting chemotherapy? Fuck me
 
On the testing numbers... I don't know much about this, but I think (as with many things) you need to be very careful comparing countries.

Here's total tests per capita for a few countries

1637835029184.png


My understanding - some could well be wide of the mark:

Throughout the pandemic, Denmark has been the poster child for testing as the key pillar. That continues even today.

We started badly but the rollout of LFTs increased a lot and may actually be one of the key reasons we're not seeing growth above our very high ongoing rate.

Germany, again as I understand it, counts tests in a different way - LFTs aren't recorded, so their figures may be misleadingly low.

Test positivity is seen as a key metric. WHO recommends getting below 5% to keep under control. Here's the same countries on that:

1637835519564.png

Which perhaps tells a different story.

I would guess that a population survey is the best way to compare actual country rates. I've no idea what the other countries equivalent of the ONS survey is - does anyone else? Here's England:

1637835994228.png

Finally, again, my very limited understanding is that there are some radical differences within countries, especially the former East Germany.

Graphs from ourworldindata:
ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org

Latest ONS survey:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health Security Agency and Wellcome Trust.
www.ons.gov.uk
 
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