Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Octavian]

But at least you’ll be with your wife mate. There’s that.

Don’t make him depressed

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Well given Medley clarified it afterwards and previous sage minutes can be seen proving his point, Nelsons interpretation of it is quite clearly wrong.

His previous sage meetings was dated prior to Nov 17th before omicron was around

 

[Bluewonder]

They should model the most likely scenario, using assumptions informed by data from other countries.

This should be the only way modelling is used to drive policy.

Fairy tale scenarios where nobody dies and apocalyptic scenarios where everyone dies are useful to nobody other than tabloid press.

 

[Cheesy]

As you choose to believe what you believe because it suits you. So who's right and who's wrong?

Erm... I am.

Seeing as Medley has come out and said that it just isn't the case.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

Delta will still be circulating at the moment but I imagine will be replaced by omicron as the dominant strain. There is the possibility you could catch both at the same time. Get vaccinated.

Is this true?

I've literally just had it, this week no idea if it was Omnicron or Delta.

I wouldn't want to get over this and then catch Omnicron, I can't get a booster for a month now....

 

[SWP's back]

How can you model ‘truth’ based on an unknown virus with unknown effects? Modelling by definition is based on assumptions. You can do several models based on varying assumptions and then track how each model matches the virus in real time.

And should the ‘real world’ ever beat ‘best case’ when modelling a range of outcomes?

 

[BobKowalski]

Oh for fucks sake, quit it with the hyperbole and strawmen.

They model worst and best case scenarios and everything in between. So far, their “best case” scenarios are averaging at being between 80-100% more than what then happens in the real world.

Because of that they lose credibility and people start ignoring their data.

There’s no point modelling a best case scenario that always turns out twice as bad as reality. That’s not what a best scenario is meant to do.

So by ‘best case’ you mean they model varying worst case scenarios? I don’t have a problem with that. Most disaster planning or modelling tends to err on the side of, well, disaster.

 

[meltonblue]

His previous sage meetings was dated prior to Nov 17th before omicron was around

Struggling with what that’s got to do with the discussion? The point is it shows what sage model and what they don’t, which is different to what Nelson interpreted.

 

[twosips]

Don’t make him depressed

Ha

 

[SWP's back]

So by ‘best case’ you mean they model varying worst case scenarios? I don’t have a problem with that. Most disaster planning or modelling tends to err on the side of, well, disaster.

No they have their models which show a range of outcomes for a given policy decision.

But their low end “best case” was nearly twice as bad as what ended up happening.