Just reading an article where it had Best/Medium/worse case scenario. The best case scenario paints a picture of a full loosening of restrictions in March leading to 30,000 hospital admissions in April/May and June so not likely. This is coming from someone who sits on the government modelling advisory group. He is talking about it being more likely to be May before we see the relaxation of rules that would perhaps lead to a better situation. However a loosening of outdoor activities should be possible, just not indoor. Talk of countries only allowing people in who have either tested negative or have had the vaccine.
I personally think that if the vaccination continues to go well and there are no setbacks with effectiveness or new variants then schools will be open after Easter (maybe primary first) but not before. We will go back into new Tier systems where they perhaps allow more outdoor contact and it will be June onwards before we see people at sporting events/outdoor festivals etc. There will be no overseas holidays before June and no pubs etc before then either. I hope I am wrong as it seems a long time away.
Time will tell.