Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

Hancock says hopefully schools back by Easter, so that’s tipping us the nod that feb half term is a target already missed.

Schools can't open fully. They are what sent numbers through the roof. The new variant is 120% more infectious in kids 12-15 with breath viral load nearly up to adult levels. Previous strains were o where near as infectious in children.

Covid-19: What have we learnt about the new variant in the UK?

The new SARS-CoV-2 variant has evoked scenes reminiscent of the early days of covid-19 when much of the world banned travel to and from Wuhan, China. With large parts of south-east England locked down, Elisabeth Mahase looks at what we know so far Yes, according to a review of the current...

www.bmj.com

(I Need to find the viral load breath charts that show this better.)

 

[BlueAnorak]

Talk this morning thta restrictions may have to stay until September, now I don't think that means lockdown as today but either way this seems to be getting worse rather than better. The vaccine is excellent news and the only positive from the last 12 months but if this thing mutates to a pint where it become ineffective we could be in a long term cycle of this dance. We are already hearing that the lockdown is not slowing the rate as hoped although I believe this to be because we haven't had a true lockdown as such.

Hancock has stated that he really worries about future mutations, so do I.

It is like a disaster movie, you know it could happen but never honestly believed it would.

I think we will go back to tiring and mass PCR testing in April. Restrictions lifted in the UK in September. Foreign travel? Forget it till 2022

 

[feedthegoat27]

I think we will go back to tiring and mass PCR testing in April. Restrictions lifted in the UK in September. Foreign travel? Forget it till 2022

Assuming the vaccine continues it's successful rollout, foreign travel will absolutely return in 2021.

Fair enough if some people won't have an inclination to go abroad, but it will resume for those who do, albeit not for a few months yet.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland start the roll out of the 70 - 79 age vaccinations tomorrow with a new contact programme sending out Blue coloured envelopes with the appointment inside so the Royal Mail can ensure they get swift delivery and those receiving them will recognise straight away what it is.

 

[cleavers]

“Out of control” is a bit of a stretch at this time.

—-


“The woman in New Zealand who tested positive arrived in Auckland on 30 December after travelling in Spain and the Netherlands for four months. She returned two negative Covid tests while staying in government-managed isolation at the Pullman hotel, having arrived from London.

The woman was released from the Pullman on 13 January and travelled around south Northland with her husband, visiting as many as 30 locations, including popular holiday spots, AirBnbs, and shops.”

Why anyone is allowed to travel freely like this during a pandemic is beyond me. People going on these ridiculous trips is exactly why we’re in this mess.

So from the sounds of that she's done 14 days in quarantine, been allowed out as per their rules, and tested positive after the quarantine, which suggests 14 days isn't enough, unless she's caught it there ?

 

[Gabriel]

Interesting piece on modelling in the U.S. Lots of approximations and caveats as usual.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Said all this from the off. U.K. governments handling has been piss poor and half hearted.

Whats happened has
been and gone, nowt we can do about that now. Its the decisions we make going forward that could still improve things significantly.

 

[Healdplace]

We underestimated the virus from day one I agree. And Boris has not handled it well and I have criticised policy a lot in here because of that.

But however badly New Zealand might have messed up they would not have been close to where we are because of the differences in advantages they had to us.

That was my point.

Our diverse political system was a big problem. It is obvious now they should have created a war cabinet across all 4 nations from day one and had a unified Covid policy.

As a very new government with only days of ministerial experience we also had very bad luck in the timing.

Imagine the virus arriving in US in Trumps first days. If you think it was bad three years in.

 

[ctwrd]

I do hope the governments briefing at the moment that vaccines alone are not enough and case numbers need to go down is just to ensure those early vaccinated don’t relax and not an indication that they won’t relax the rules when a significant number have been vaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

1 death - was o last week

1195 cases - was 1341 last week

At 7.4% positive- was 9.5% last week

Patients 2011 - down 74 - was 1948 last week

Ventilator icu 157 - down 2 - was 147 last week