Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Eds said:
Do we have some sort of rationale as to why Yorkshire is so high in comparison to other areas. Still has the highest infections per 1,000 and is the only area I think now above 100 cases per 100,000. Apologies if I have missed any reasoning previously.
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I think Yorkshire avoided the worst of the waves earlier, compared to the South East and North West, and is seeing the latest more virulent strain now.

Healdplace gave some good analysis along those lines a day or so ago.

Living in Sheffield, compliance with rules seems good, hospitalisation and deaths thankfully low now. Of course, there's still a lot of industry where distancing and masks not practical, and a lot of housing of multiple occupancy where the virus can spread.
 
Eds said:
Do we have some sort of rationale as to why Yorkshire is so high in comparison to other areas. Still has the highest infections per 1,000 and is the only area I think now above 100 cases per 100,000. Apologies if I have missed any reasoning previously.
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Less people in these areas are following the rules than in other areas. Or they are just doing more testing in these areas, which seems unlikely?
 
unicorn said:
I think Yorkshire avoided the worst of the waves earlier, compared to the South East and North West, and is seeing the latest more virulent strain now.

Healdplace gave some good analysis along those lines a day or so ago.

Living in Sheffield, compliance with rules seems good, hospitalisation and deaths thankfully low now. Of course, there's still a lot of industry where distancing and masks not practical, and a lot of housing of multiple occupancy where the virus can spread.
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Will look for the recent analysis, thanks
 
As I have noted before on Yorkshire I think the reason is that it avoided the Kent variant longer than every other region.

It was running very low on this at Christmas but has taken off since.

The details are in here from 3 or 4 months ago but at one point they were in single figures pre Christmas whereas NW rose up to about 30% in a week or two. London and the South had already gone through the roof by then.

Getting that amidst the vaccination programme rather than before it as impacted the southern regions and the midlands and north west was good news as it means Yorkshire did not escalate as badly as those other regions did before the vaccine roll out to dull the worst impact.

So they are imo just the last ones to see this more infective variant driving up numbers and are already well on the way down from there. Just trailing a little on the last one in last one out principle.
 
The factory argument might well have contributed too - though are there really more there than in Lancashire?

The delay in the increase versus the other reasons seems to be harder to tie into factory working than the spread of a new variant that the testing in Yorkshire clearly showed was lowest there for longest. And which we know has been driving big rises in cases wherever in the world it becomes dominant.
 
GM today is up by 71 from the unfeasibly low number yesterday to 352 which is down 50 wk to wk from 402 last Monday.

This readjusts the huge rise in % of NW score yesterday that I knew looked off.

That has fallen today from the very wrong looking 62.1% yesterday to just 55.9% today. Much as it was in previous days. So looking more 'right'.

Most places in GM are down week to week and will see Pop Score falls as a result.

A very good day for Bury. Low scoring on just 12. And now with the lowest weekly cases total in GM after taking over from Trafford yesterday.

Trafford at the other extreme was at 30 well up on the 7 it had last week. So its Pop Score will escalate.

Stockport - though up day to day like most places - is down week to week on 27. So actually for the second day running had a lower case score than and took a chunk out of the huge lead in overall Pop Score that Trafford had built on Stockport,

Oldham apart from Trafford was the only other borough to go up week to week today so will see its all important weekly Pop score rise instead of fall.

All other boroughs had a pretty good day with Manchester highest on 80 - a score it has had three times in the last 7 days with others 78 and 82 - so as you can see flat as a pancake!

Everyone else was between Rochdale on 22 and Bolton on 48.
 
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TINY said:
My dad was admitted to hospitsl 4 weeks ago, he’s been on a ventilator nearly 4 weeks. He made progress but has nose dived, now has pneumonia, I don’t think he’s going to make it.

Doctors attribute it to the vaccine he had 48 hours prior sending his body into overdrive
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There are loads of us who have lost people in the last year, but it's hard to imagine anyone going through more than you are. Heart and soul Tiny, my sympathy is not enough, but it's all I can offer. Please be ok, and keep reaching out to anyone and everyone.
 
The best news today is that the Novavax vaccine will be both manufactured and bottled (this bit by GSK) in the North East. 50 million doses on order.

Edit: I had assumed this but this vaccine is already being manufactured in the UK according to Johnson as approval is imminent. Hopefully in May huge numbers of younger groups will be getting their first doses.
 
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Only 45% of care home staff taking the vaccine in Lambeth. That is shocking. These people refusing to have it are not only ignorant but iresponsible not only in their duty of care to their people they are looking after but to their families and wider society. If we all adopted that stance we would never get out of this misery.
 
These jounalists simply dont understand that this lockdown has to be the last. If the vaccines work they work, if they dont we cant just keep doing this endless cycle of lockdowns, the later isnt sustainable from an economic or social point of view.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
That depends if you can admit the Governments performance in 2020 was utterly shambolic
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It was shambolic but UK government, NHS and Care sector processes and administration were totally shambolic and have not been fit for purpose for decades.(Probably still aren't fit for purpose).
Infection control is the worst item on the list. 60% of deaths are from people in hospital for somthing else when they caught Covid-19.
A lack of ventilation in hospital, surgery and care-home buildings being top of the pile.
 
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I see Novavax are moving some of there vaccine manufacturing in Europe (finishing) to the UK because they believe the EU will treat them like AstraZenica.
The EU vaccine omnishambles continues.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

After the good news here is the bad. Hospital numbers are up today. Not by much and rises on a Monday are not rare. But there has been a clear slow down in the past week or so and we are seeing some rises today.

Ventilators have been falling less fast and today went up by just 2 but nonetheless a rise.

North West goes up in both measures too today. And rises by the most patients. So a warning sign to watch.

I said last week this is a critical week which could tip either way. Hopefully the fall will come back tomorrow even if it is smaller than it was as inevitable with lower numbers.

But these really are the numbers that matter right now more than cases so this small blip needs watching closely in coming days in hope it reverses again.





UK total:


Patients UP to 4176 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 35, 072 in 70 days) :- lowest since 10 October

Ventilators UP to 587 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3490 in 64 days) : lowest since 15 October


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

217 Covid admissions (27 March) the better news today - lowest yet - following 245, 283, 277, 295, 294, 279, 287 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients UP in day by 28 to 3466 v 4492 last week :- lowest since 10 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 30, 870 in 70 days)

Ventilators: STAYS AT 532 v 692 last week :- lowest since 19 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3204 in 64 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 24 hours and v last week


East STAYS AT 279 v 414 // STAYS AT 51 v 73

London down 4 to 733 v 922 // UP 5 to 158 v 198

Midlands down 3 to 709 v 948 // down 3 to 120 v 148

NE & Yorks UP 7 to 608 v 737 // down 4 to 77 v 95

North West UP 26 to 648 v 787 // UP 1 to 74 v 86

South East STAYS AT 364 v 517 // UP 1 to 37 v 55

South West UP 2 to 125 v 176 // STAYS AT 15 v 22
 
Healdplace said:
The factory argument might well have contributed too - though are there really more there than in Lancashire?

The delay in the increase versus the other reasons seems to be harder to tie into factory working than the spread of a new variant that the testing in Yorkshire clearly showed was lowest there for longest. And which we know has been driving big rises in cases wherever in the world it becomes dominant.
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Very similar on the factory count, Sheffield Brightside is the Yorkshire equivalent of Rossendale !

You're right, it's the fact that Yorkshire is getting the Kent variant last, though those unprotectable factories are the places where it spreads. That said, there are plenty of postcodes in Sheffield, for example, with less than 3 cases in the last week, and I suspect most positive cases are relatively young and fit now.
 
Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA

After the good news here is the bad. Hospital numbers are up today. Not by much and rises on a Monday are not rare. But there has been a clear slow down in the past week or so and we are seeing some rises today.

Ventilators have been falling less fast and today went up by just 2 but nonetheless a rise.

North West goes up in both measures too today. And rises by the most patients. So a warning sign to watch.

I said last week this is a critical week which could tip either way. Hopefully the fall will come back tomorrow even if it is smaller than it was as inevitable with lower numbers.

But these really are the numbers that matter right now more than cases so this small blip needs watching closely in coming days in hope it reverses again.





UK total:


Patients UP to 4176 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 35, 072 in 70 days) :- lowest since 10 October

Ventilators UP to 587 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3490 in 64 days) : lowest since 15 October


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

217 Covid admissions (27 March) the better news today - lowest yet - following 245, 283, 277, 295, 294, 279, 287 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients UP in day by 28 to 3466 v 4492 last week :- lowest since 10 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 30, 870 in 70 days)

Ventilators: STAYS AT 532 v 692 last week :- lowest since 19 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3204 in 64 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 24 hours and v last week


East STAYS AT 279 v 414 // STAYS AT 51 v 73

London down 4 to 733 v 922 // UP 5 to 158 v 198

Midlands down 3 to 709 v 948 // down 3 to 120 v 148

NE & Yorks UP 7 to 608 v 737 // down 4 to 77 v 95

North West UP 26 to 648 v 787 // UP 1 to 74 v 86

South East STAYS AT 364 v 517 // UP 1 to 37 v 55

South West UP 2 to 125 v 176 // STAYS AT 15 v 22
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Concerning, but its the trend that matters. As long as the trend contines downwards then these spikes can be deemed acceptable.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
These jounalists simply dont understand that this lockdown has to be the last. If the vaccines work they work, if they dont we cant just keep doing this endless cycle of lockdowns, the later isnt sustainable from an economic or social point of view.
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if Hospitals fill up to max capacity and ICU/beds are running out - then there is no other choice but to lockdown.
 
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