Coronavirus (2021) thread

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If the SA strain and other mutations massively reduce the vaccine efficiency and create a larger amount of reinfections then I don’t see how we get out of this. It isn’t going to stop spreading and mutating in 2022 so not sure why social distancing would only be in place until the end of this year. If we get to a point where the SA strain does become the dominant one but we eventually get on top of it, what’s to stop it from mutating into an even worse form ? God this whole shitshow is depressing.
 
grunge said:
the suggestions that it will become less deadly are valid as natural selection suggests that if the virus kills the host the host isn't spreading it anymore. making it far harder for more deadly versions to spread. but that has a whole host of technicalities ( how easy the spread is, asymptomatic spread, incubation periods, how long until mortality etc etc ) to it and can take decades rather than months, It may well become a common cold variant eventually.


Right now, Lockdowns and Vaccines are making it harder for the virus to transmit which will mean the more transmissible or vaccine tolerant variants will be promoted.

However no sign that any variant has bypassed the vaccine yet. But this is why the next few months its key people obey the lockdowns so these variants cant spread if they do form.
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Hopefully, the virus will become less deadly but the British variant shows that isn’t guaranteed in the near future. It’s great that the vaccines have been developed so fast and look like being so effective.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
An individual case is not more dangerous. Faster spread of the variant makes it more dangerous. We were too slow to restrict access to our borders and the testing is an attempt to limit the spread of the South African variant before it is wide spread.
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The SA varriant has been in the UK 2 months at least.
Hotel Quarantine should have been in force since before February half term 2020. It wasn't and is difficult to enforce because the chattering classes like to travel and they have tremendous soft power in the UK.
 
I hate to be the bearer of bad news this morning (genuinely - right sunk my mood), but monoclonal antibodies failed unfortunately. I know some on here were quite excited about that.

 
ayrshire_blue said:
I just don't buy into the theory that it was inevitable. Sorry mods for mixing politics with this thread but it really can't be helped on this occasion because the two things go hand in hand. Part of the reason for the Brexit vote was in order to 'take control of our own borders' yet we first heard about this strain before Christmas. Since then it's been far too little, too late. We're still an island at the end of the day so could have used that to our advantage, completely closed the borders and enforced the strictest of quarantine and isolation period for those who are returning to the UK from anywhere in the world.

I feel that if we could turn back clocks, we'd have done that in February 2020, yet when a new potential problem was discovered or at least made public in December 2020 we've still been slow to react and done so in a half measured manner.

Again, sorry for mixing politics here but it's impossible not to. I just don't see this strain being over here as something we couldn't avoid, we could if we tried.
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First off mate, you’re answering a point I wasn’t making. Secondly, that’s what a virus does, it mutates. How do you think any variant occurs, by magic?
 
twosips said:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news this morning (genuinely - right sunk my mood), but monoclonal antibodies failed unfortunately. I know some on here were quite excited about that.

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So GSK's monoclonal anitbody still works against the South African and Brazilian variants, and new ones based off the variants are already in trials.
 
domalino said:
So GSK's monoclonal anitbody still works against the South African and Brazilian variants, and new ones based off the variants are already in trials.
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Genuine question. Is there anyway a doctor can tell which variant a patient has so they can use that treatment for a certain individual?
 
twosips said:
Genuine question. Is there anyway a doctor can tell which variant a patient has so they can use that treatment for a certain individual?
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Mate there is fuck all we can do about it - if it works it works and i am sure it will.
 
twosips said:
Genuine question. Is there anyway a doctor can tell which variant a patient has so they can use that treatment for a certain individual?
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They will just give it to them and if it works then great.

Also given what we've heard about the vaccine efficacy vs. UK and South African variants being enough to stop almost all serious illness I'm not sure how many people are going to be ill enough to need antibodies.

Antibodies are going to be important until everyone is vaccinated, after that there shouldn't be huge demand for them (and newer ones should have been approved to specifically target the variants).
 
Rammy Blue said:
First off mate, you’re answering a point I wasn’t making. Secondly, that’s what a virus does, it mutates. How do you think any variant occurs, by magic?
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Don't really understand the need for condescension, but you do you. I was suggesting that we done everything within our power to limit the chance of that mutation happening. Just like the pandemic didn't initially take hold in this country by "magic", there are steps we could have taken to limit the consequences.
 
inbetween said:
The critical thing that these people always miss is transmissibility is totally irrelevant. No-one cares about transmissibility from a healthcare perspective. The virus version of the common cold is quite transmissible but no-one really cares about that because it is a mild infection.

What is missing in the data for these recent variants is the evidence of changes that will lead to an increase in moderate to severe COVID (and mortality). For all we know they may decrease mortality which would actually be a very welcome variant!

It's just highly unlikely that a vaccine evading strain will emerge whilst a vaccinated population doesn't exist. Vaccine evading strains can only become selected because of the impact of vaccines. Until then the virus remains novel and will tear through unvaccinated populations as it did before until it encounters immune systems that are already prepared for it. It is here that selective mutations occur that may cause problems for the vaccine.

The Moderna vaccine has recently gone through trials assessing efficacy against the UK strain and it was found to be 85% effective. I really wouldn't worry, almost everything you read on strains even from doctors and epidemiologist is for now speculative and lacking in evidence.

The evidence so far from the larger vaccinated populations in Israel and clinical trials is the vaccines we have available are extremely effective and almost unbelievably effective actually.

Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa | Moderna, Inc.

Out of an abundance of caution, Moderna launches clinical program to boost immunity to emerging variants Manuscript posted to preprint server; company to host conference call once manuscript is available CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 25, 2021-- Moderna Inc .
investors.modernatx.com investors.modernatx.com
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The Kent varriant is more transmissable than the SA variant so the SA variant is unlikely to take off till herd immunity starts to impact variant evolutionary selection.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Hopefully, the virus will become less deadly but the British variant shows that isn’t guaranteed in the near future. It’s great that the vaccines have been developed so fast and look like being so effective.
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yep, there's no guarantees at all, it could go all manor of directions. mutations are by there very nature unpredictable. Long term viruses do tend to go the less deadly route but how many more deadly mutations happen along the route is anyones guess.
 
Sat back at home now with oxygen tanks around the house, another great service provided by the NHS.

Spoke to my Dad this morning who was taken in last night, he seems to be doing a lot better so I’m hopeful he’ll be home tomorrow.

The respiratory ward has already called me twice this morning to check on my stats and to make sure everything is working properly. Can’t wait to get improved.

Stay safe all
 
TINY said:
Sat back at home now with oxygen tanks around the house, another great service provided by the NHS.

Spoke to my Dad this morning who was taken in last night, he seems to be doing a lot better so I’m hopeful he’ll be home tomorrow.

The respiratory ward has already called me twice this morning to check on my stats and to make sure everything is working properly. Can’t wait to get improved.

Stay safe all
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Lovely news. Happy for you mate!
 
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