Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Deleted member 77198]

I will quite happily continue to wear a mask in shops and on public transport. I've not had a cold for a whole year for the first time in my life

I was wearing masks in shops and on the bus back from February last year (and remember posting on here at the time about getting funny looks and comments from people) before it was mandatory. And I might wear one for the rest of my life in shops and on transport in the Winter months, even if we aren’t told to do so. I think it’ll be good for stopping the spread of all the Winter viruses.

 

[paulchapo]

You need to see a doctor if that is thle case.

That's why the follow up yellow site is not much cop. They offer no real follow up or advice. It says on my form to ring 111 if you get a problem but I just thought mine would slowly improve. I would hope as it's been ten weeks it's not life threatening but who knows?

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App update:

More big falls today.

Predicted cases down 250 on yesterday to just 2100

And reported symptomatic cases down 3243 in the day and 18, 043 in the past 7 days.

To just 50, 144 in the UK

The bad news to temper this is that the North West in the past few days has gone from the area with the least reported symptoms and predicted cases to only behind Scotland and the North East & Yorkshire.

Looks like the pandemic is reducing in the south and midlands more right now.

The NW range is still 19 to 90 per million population. But is no longer in the white zone as it was a week ago.

Now in the pink middle range.

Yorkshire and Scotland are both the only two in the Red Zone with numbers over 100 per million - 169 Scotland and 130 Yorkshire.

 

[Marvin]

10s of millions for and healthy 23 year olds have been vaccinated? Ok mate.

Not in the UK they haven't but based on what we know if I was 23 I'd be getting vaccinated because

1) from what I know of the risks they are lower with a vaccine than without. Of course we know the risk differential is higher in older people,

2) This pandemic only ends when we all have immunity. We need all on board.

It seems to me like there is an easy solution to this clotting concern: direct the young to Pfizer/Moderna and the older to Astrazeneca but we need the medics to be open about this so we can assess the risk for ourselves.

If it was up to me with my admittedly limited knowledge I'd be vaccinating school children as well, not for the children but for the whole population. We need to get out of this because it is damaging everyone including 23 year olds who I agree have little risk from Covid. They do however have risk of social exclusion. So what do you want 2-3 years of no parties and no college, or a vaccine?

 

[Healdplace]

Looking at that Warwick modelling of a predicted July/August wave I am baffled that it shows very little difference - in the range of between 250 and 300 a day at the peak - of those predicted to die between the ones unvaccinated in all age ranges and the ones aged 50 and over who have had two doses by then.

This seems very counter intuitive but I presume has some logic?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Looking at that Warwick modelling of a predicted July/August wave I am baffled that it shows very little difference - in the range of between 250 and 300 a day at the peak - of those predicted to die between the ones unvaccinated in all age ranges and the ones aged 50 and over who have had two doses by then.

This seems very counter intuitive but I presume has some logic?

Are you saying it's ~150 each:
(1) unvaccinnated all ages and
(2) vaccinated over over 50s?

If so it broadly makes sense to me:

- unvaccinated are obviously still susceptible, but their fatality rate is much lower as most are younger
- some vaccinated remain susceptible and the fatality rate for these older, frailer people means a proportion will still die.

But that's just hand waving as I've not read it.

 

[True_Blue69]

Not in the UK they haven't but based on what we know if I was 23 I'd be getting vaccinated because

1) from what I know of the risks they are lower with a vaccine than without. Of course we know the risk differential is higher in older people,

2) This pandemic only ends when we all have immunity. We need all on board.

It seems to me like there is an easy solution to this clotting concern: direct the young to Pfizer/Moderna and the older to Astrazeneca but we need the medics to be open about this so we can assess the risk for ourselves.

If it was up to me with my admittedly limited knowledge I'd be vaccinating school children as well, not for the children but for the whole population. We need to get out of this because it is damaging everyone including 23 year olds who I agree have little risk from Covid. They do however have risk of social exclusion. So what do you want 2-3 years of no parties and no college, or a vaccine?

If there is a safe vaccine I agree 100%. If there is one that is mostly safe then it shouldn’t be given to people at practically no risk of covid.

Agree if the other ones are safe, just give that to the younger people. I won’t be letting my 5 year old daughter have it if there are any risks when she is at no risk of the virus.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Seems to be a bit down on here.

Taking the wider perspective though, I think we should be very optimistic.

A football analogy. We've just lost the derby, so everyone's completely pissed off. But remember, we're still 11 points clear, and in all three cups.

1. Nov 7th 2020. No vaccines known to be effective. No clear way out at all. Deaths rising inexorably.

2. Jan 4th, cases exponentially rising. Over 1000 deaths a day, and a new variant which scientists were unsure if even a hard lockdown could control. Confused tier system.

Let's look at where things stand now.

1. Six (six!!!) vaccines proved effective. Thirty million people in UK received a dose. Europe looks set to catch up too.

2. Lockdown has crushed the virus. Deaths down to tens daily. Cases down to single digit thousands. Both continuing to drop.

3. Schools back. Outdoor mixing back (saw my parents for first time in months yesterday). Pubs next week, at least outdoors.

4. One of the vaccines is associated with a tiny number of severe side effects - the worst case of which is less deaths in total than every ten minutes in January, to put in context.

5. Scientists expect a further wave at some point, the size and timing of which is very uncertain. However, we know vaccination will stop it being so rapid as previously, we have testing in place to monitor, and we know how to respond to control it if necessary.

6. There will be fans for league and FA cup finals. Even if not me as a mere Cityzen.

We've got this, we just need to keep at it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If there is a safe vaccine I agree 100%. If there is one that is mostly safe then it shouldn’t be given to people at practically no risk of covid.

This is, and always has been, genuinely difficult.

No treatment, of any sort, is entirely without risk, so "mostly safe" is the best you can ever get.

Extremely rare effects can only be found by treating extremely large numbers of the population. We know the current vaccines are safe enough to justify the benefit of protecting adults, but we can't possibly say they're completely safe for adults.

For children, the first trials are just reading out. They look good, but it's simply impossible to know if there is a very small number of side effects which will have very serious impacts.

Five year olds have had their lives extremely limited in the last year, which has bad consequences for them too. If vaccinating them were necessary for society to return to normal, it could well be worth it.

But I don't think it's obvious either way with what we know now.

 

[Manc in London]

I'd like them to be a little bit more optimistic with their predictor modelling. The head honcho predictor Ferguson would be out of a job if his work was based on accuracy. Ferguson ceased to be serious once it was known he was shagging around and breaking rules he helped to introduce. I'm sure he has a second job weather forecasting for the Daily Express. There are varying opinions amongst the experts but i tend to ignore Ferguson if i can. We ( the missus and i ) tend to put more store in Dr John Campbell

They are reporting the data. No spin either way. They tend to keep hunches to themselves. In fact, at yesterdays press conference Prof Whitty stated that he was of the opinion, at the very start of the pandemic, that this would be, at least, a long term issue and that it may well never go away. This is not something he expressed publicly early in the pandemic.

RE Ferguson, he uses, and most likely, develops statistical models. Such models have to include certain assumptions/parameters. They are not necessarily going to be perfect but it will be indicative to the point it can be used to inform public policy making. He doesn't simply pluck figures out of the air. Are there any specific predictions he made that you think were nonsense? I think I remember him saying something like 250k may die without lockdown. Well, we locked down and c150k who have sadly passed away. Does that make it a poor prediction? I don't see anything to suggest it was wildly incorrect

The difference between Dr Campbell and Ferguson is that the latter mostly reports published research, adding commentary and further insight. He doesn't deliver the primary research himself or deliver any modelling, which is far more difficult.

As for him shagging around....hardly the basis on which to judge someone. In relation to his abilities, it's irrelevant.

 

[Healdplace]

Are you saying it's ~150 each:
(1) unvaccinnated all ages and
(2) vaccinated over over 50s?

If so it broadly makes sense to me:

- unvaccinated are obviously still susceptible, but their fatality rate is much lower as most are younger
- some vaccinated remain susceptible and the fatality rate for these older, frailer people means a proportion will still die.

But that's just hand waving as I've not read it.

Thanks - I am not great at reading graphs but they seem to predict in August a peak of around 250 or so for both categories.

By which point all the over 50s should have had two doses aside from those who refused.

I understand your point but if the efficacy against serious illness for the vaccinated is as claimed you would expect by that point the main driver of deaths to be those not vaccinated.

Unless you assume the unvaccinated ones are all of low risk that will skew that group to a minimum.

But the two studies differ in numbers and size so it is little more than educated guesswork I presume.

 

[Healdplace]

12 England hospital deaths - just 1 from the North West

Last week was 40 with 8 from North West.

But....this is not a normal Tuesday when weekend catch up would occur as this Monday was a bank holiday.

That catch up may come tomorrow this week so I would expect underscoring today.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I understand your point but if the efficacy against serious illness for the vaccinated is as claimed

I'm not sure which claims you mean, but I would be cautious about those from clinical trials claiming 100% or similar efficacy. Whilst true for the trial, they are firstly based on extremely small numbers, often single figures, of severe cases, relatively recently from vaccination rather than many months later, and don't include many of the most vulnerable. So whilst very positive, perhaps a best case for real world efficacy against deaths.

But the two studies differ in numbers and size so it is little more than educated guesswork I presume

Yes, I think this kind of modelling is best seen as a range of potential future scenarios we should be prepared for, certainly not a prediction of an exact outcome.

 

[Healdplace]

12 England hospital deaths have just 2 aged over 80. Lowest percentage I can ever recall.

Though % data at such low numbers is rather misleading really.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Indeed. I think Boris’ exact words were “listen, this is still miles away this thing about Covid passports, we are still very early in the discussion phase”.

What everyone is going so overboard about it for is just fucking pure stupidity. It might not even happen, despite many people in the population thinking it’s a good idea even if the Govt just think it’s an idea that won’t even come into reality.

Sometimes I do think this flapping is purposeful by some. They know exactly what they’re fucking doing!

I think the main trouble with the passport concept is that he keeps mentioning them, often changing what they may entail, and then another minister pops up and says something slightly different. That makes it appear that this is far from early discussions.

I think what it needs is a flat rote statement about where they are on the subject, and have all the others stick to the damned thing. Gove is apparently in charge of it yet I haven't heard a word from him about it! He should be issuing the statement for others to refer to, preferably (IMO) clearly stating that it has to be debated in full in Parliament, and to update it weekly as a minimum.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths

Regions:

4 Midlands, 4 South East, 3 NE & Yorkshire, NW 1 and the other regions(East, London and South West) all zero.

Portsmouth with 2 is the only trust with more than 1. The NW death was in the Manchester Royal.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

If there is a safe vaccine I agree 100%. If there is one that is mostly safe then it shouldn’t be given to people at practically no risk of covid.

Agree if the other ones are safe, just give that to the younger people. I won’t be letting my 5 year old daughter have it if there are any risks when she is at no risk of the virus.

Do you not consider the vaccines to be sufficiently safe?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

They are reporting the data. No spin either way. They tend to keep hunches to themselves. In fact, at yesterdays press conference Prof Whitty stated that he was of the opinion, at the very start of the pandemic, that this would be, at least, a long term issue and that it may well never go away. This is not something he expressed publicly early in the pandemic.

RE Ferguson, he uses, and most likely, develops statistical models. Such models have to include certain assumptions/parameters. They are not necessarily going to be perfect but it will be indicative to the point it can be used to inform public policy making. He doesn't simply pluck figures out of the air. Are there any specific predictions he made that you think were nonsense? I think I remember him saying something like 250k may die without lockdown. Well, we locked down and c150k who have sadly passed away. Does that make it a poor prediction? I don't see anything to suggest it was wildly incorrect

The difference between Dr Campbell and Ferguson is that the latter mostly reports published research, adding commentary and further insight. He doesn't deliver the primary research himself or deliver any modelling, which is far more difficult.

As for him shagging around....hardly the basis on which to judge someone. In relation to his abilities, it's irrelevant.

Its more about credibility not ability. Fergusson lacks credibility the same way as Cummings did/does. You should practice what you preach.

 

[grunge]

If there is a safe vaccine I agree 100%. If there is one that is mostly safe then it shouldn’t be given to people at practically no risk of covid.

Agree if the other ones are safe, just give that to the younger people. I won’t be letting my 5 year old daughter have it if there are any risks when she is at no risk of the virus.

Define safe? Nothing is 100% side effect free for all. even just taking a paracetamol can have serious effects for some.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Its more about credibility not ability. Fergusson lacks credibility the same way as Cummings did/does. You should practice what you preach.

It doesn't affect his credibility at all. He broke lockdown rules, but by doing so doesn't render his modelling any less accurate. The two factors are not connected in the same way a government advisor responsible for telling people how we should all behave not doing so himself.

Only one of these actions has a direct impact on the suitability to carry out the role which that person was initially doing.