Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England Hospital Deaths: (Three days as usual now on Mondays)

SOME HAPPY NEWS FOR ONCE

SATURDAY:- 9 with 7 from the NW - wk before was 12 with 2 from the NW

SUNDAY:- 2 with 0 from NW -wk before was 2 with 2 NW

TODAY:- ZERO HOSPITAL DEATHS - last week was 2 with 1 NW


So this is good news - even though Sunday data is always low - as there were ZERO deaths from the other 3 nationbs today too.

So literally nobody will be reported as dying today in the UK.

But please recall deaths lag cases and hospitalisations etc - so this will reflect on where we were a few weeks ago NOT the rising numbers of past week or two.

Though it is very encouraging those will not rise horrendously even so.
 
England hospital deaths:

More details

SAT 9 deaths - 7 NW, 1 London, 1 Midlands

The 7 NW deaths were 3 in Bolton (see what I mean about the lag between cases and deaths) and 1 each in East Lancashire (Blackburn), Lancashire, St Helens & Clatterbridge

1 of the deaths was aged under 19,

1 aged 40 - 59,

5 aged 60 - 79 ~

And 2 aged 80 Plus


SUN 2 deaths -both from the Midlands

1 aged 20 - 39 & the other aged 60 - 79. Zero in other age ranges.



MON 0 deaths

So of the 11 deaths over the weekend 2 were in the near fully vaccinated but most vulnerable over 80s

And 3 were aged under 60

With the other 6 in the 60 - 79 group.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
You'd think the police would have better things to do than siting on their arse by the side of the road looking for number plates.

I dunno, like catching criminals maybe.
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Many years ago before the "new" system of registrations most vehicles had 3 numbers. We used to play car reg 3 card brag sat outside our local pub. You had to pick a model of car and when one came by the numbers on your reg were your "hand". The game finished once everyone had their model go by, we played for money as well so sometimes the pot would be relatively large. One day one of the lads picked an MG Midget, we smelt a rat because that model was not usually selected, after a few minutes a Midget appeared with 999 on the reg so obviously a prile of 9's, he took the pot even though we were a bit suspicious, a few minutes later the car reappeared, the driver got out and came and shook the winners hand, it was his mate, he had stitched us all good and proper.

There wasn't much to do in those days!
 
Cases mean absolutely nothing nowadays. The IFR is a lot less that 0.3% (which is the official figure based on known cases), why are we even bothering reporting on them?
 
Healdplace said:
England Hospital Deaths: (Three days as usual now on Mondays)

SOME HAPPY NEWS FOR ONCE

SATURDAY:- 9 with 7 from the NW - wk before was 12 with 2 from the NW

SUNDAY:- 2 with 0 from NW -wk before was 2 with 2 NW

TODAY:- ZERO HOSPITAL DEATHS - last week was 2 with 1 NW


So this is good news - even though Sunday data is always low - as there were ZERO deaths from the other 3 nationbs today too.

So literally nobody will be reported as dying today in the UK.

But please recall deaths lag cases and hospitalisations etc - so this will reflect on where we were a few weeks ago NOT the rising numbers of past week or two.

Though it is very encouraging those will not rise horrendously even so.
Click to expand...
Clear signs that the link between cases and deaths has been minimised hugely following the vaccine rollout.

Cases are scary statistics that the media love to throw at us, but not sure the recent rises are going to lead to anything like 100 deaths per day again - even if we had fully removed restrictions today.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Cases mean absolutely nothing nowadays. The IFR is a lot less that 0.3% (which is the official figure based on known cases), why are we even bothering reporting on them?
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Sorry, but your getting 2 figures mixed up and then getting it wrong :)

known cases is Case Fatality rate and we're at between 3 and 4% for CFA.

1624284160643.png

IFR is estimated Estimated based on estimated number of people who have had it and generally that is thought to be about 1%, some places suggest 0.5% as a low ball figure.

Granted we should only be looking at cases in terms of how many then transfer to hospital so they can plan for any hospital needs ( which is what they do ).
 
Manchester33 said:
As a few posters mentioned over the past few weeks, it seems like the new narrative has been released now. We're going to have to be very sensible over the winter to prevent a huge seasonal flu pandemic apparently.

It's like clockwork.
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yep boris applying the lube now. Prepare for lockdown in winter.

remember releasing was slow and irreversible , now he can’t rule out more lockdowns.
 
England hospital deaths more details:


There was no real back dating over the weekend. All deaths in the past few days.

18 Jun added 4 - the highest day 1 number since 28 April. But it is only 4. On 18 Jan for comparison the day 1 number was 106 which became 764 after 5 days and 871 in total.

Afdter 3 days that 18 Jun number is still at 4.

15 Jun became the first 5 day total in double figures (at 11) since 11 on 26 May.

The last four 5 day totals have been 2 - 9 - 11 - 9 (total 31) versus last week 7 - 2- 6 - 5 (total 20) and wk before 5 - 9 - 2 - 7 (total 23)

So there is a definite sign of a rise there in death numbers.

Totally expected.

But no suggestion it is going to rise exponentially as the age ranges suggest fewer older people are dying than was and the younger ones who are will be far more linited in numbers.

So we seem on track for a much reduced deaths per cases ratio than in January.

Which should also translate to a much lower cases v hospital patients number too,
 
hammocity said:
Many years ago before the "new" system of registrations most vehicles had 3 numbers. We used to play car reg 3 card brag sat outside our local pub. You had to pick a model of car and when one came by the numbers on your reg were your "hand". The game finished once everyone had their model go by, we played for money as well so sometimes the pot would be relatively large. One day one of the lads picked an MG Midget, we smelt a rat because that model was not usually selected, after a few minutes a Midget appeared with 999 on the reg so obviously a prile of 9's, he took the pot even though we were a bit suspicious, a few minutes later the car reappeared, the driver got out and came and shook the winners hand, it was his mate, he had stitched us all good and proper.

There wasn't much to do in those days!
Click to expand...
That’s brilliant, wish I would of known that game on our away trips
 
hammocity said:
Came into contact with a real life Covid conspirator theory dick head on Friday. He's a dipper as well from Macclesfield, amongst other things he reckons Macc hospital has only had 4 cases of "flu", Bristol Western Hospital only had positive cases because they clean their testing equipment too often and his mate Rittesh in India said there's been no deaths from Covid, the images we've seen on TV are staged so the Indian Government can get financial aid. He's about 40 I'm guessing and said he will never wear a mask, sanitise his hands or social distance. Now this maybe harsh but I hope he gets seriously ill with the Delta variant, what an utter knob head.
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I bumped into one on Friday too, a fellow Blue based down here. He was talking absolute gibberish, claiming that 'they' are injecting us with 'different DNA' and it will make us all ill in the medium term and that only they will have the drugs to make us better, so we will have to pay to take them for the rest of our lives. He was so wound up about it. I didn't even engage in a debate about it. Just gave an excuse that I needed to get off.

He's a typical conspiracy theorist in that he lives on his own, is single, has plenty of time on his time hands, smokes weed (in his 40s), no friends and has low esteem. He certainly has mental health issues.
 
One wonders - at least I wonder - how, possibly, Darwin's theory of evolution might apply to the Right-wing wrong think.

Take for example, the reluctance to vaccinate. Surely, as a result, such anti-vaxers are more likely to die than those accepting vaccination.

Gun control - in areas accepting of widespread largely unregulated proliferation of guns - surely, higher death rates result.

And so on...

Hell, in a thousand years or so, we'll be much better off :-)
 
grunge said:
Sorry, but your getting 2 figures mixed up and then getting it wrong :)

known cases is Case Fatality rate and we're at between 3 and 4% for CFA.

View attachment 19749

IFR is estimated Estimated based on estimated number of people who have had it and generally that is thought to be about 1%, some places suggest 0.5% as a low ball figure.

Granted we should only be looking at cases in terms of how many then transfer to hospital so they can plan for any hospital needs ( which is what they do ).
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Prof Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director, UCL Genetics Institute, UCL, said:

“The latest PHE report largely confirmed and strengthened earlier evidence about the behaviour of the B.1.617.2 (delta) lineage. There have been over 33,000 cases of the delta variant reported in the UK over the last week, and the variant now represents over 90% of all cases of COVID-19 in the UK. Transmissibility of the delta variant in the community is estimated to be ~41% higher than for B.1.1.7 (alpha), with estimates for within-household transmission possibly even higher.

“People infected with the delta variant are more likely to be hospitalised. Though, hospitalisations and deaths remain low considering case numbers. The case fatality rate is currently down to 0.1% thanks the high vaccine coverage among the most vulnerable. Risk of infection by those vaccinated with one dose looks increased for the delta variant, but protection provided by two doses of vaccine seems largely unaffected. Despite this, there are some breakthrough cases and there have been some deaths in doubly vaccinated people.
 
Healdplace said:
BBC North West reporting supplies of vaccine to the North West have been CUT and will fall again.

13% of supplies sent to the region in May and now 10% this month. Expected to be in single figures next month.

I guess if we have it under control by then....but they surely have to see the link between low vaccination levels in Manchester and Salford and cases and the reverse in Stockport.

Trouble is with Merseyside cases now skyrocketting as I noted on the Zoe data report and is true in real life data too (Liverpool has shot up the league table in past 2 weeks) NW is likly to need more vaccinations just as other regions start to rise and need more too down south.
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Grateful as always for your perspectives as well as data on Covid, @Healdplace

As ever through the pandemic, you can take joy or misery from the same data and the skill is striking a balance, I guess.

I looked at the latest available hospital data for Liverpool and you can see that in-patients are still a fraction of what they were in the 3 previous peaks, despite the concern of those skyrocketing cases.

1624286198104.png
 
True_Blue69 said:
Cases mean absolutely nothing nowadays. The IFR is a lot less that 0.3% (which is the official figure based on known cases), why are we even bothering reporting on them?
Click to expand...
We need to do more testing not less. Particularly we need to sequence it, particularly abroad, and identify risks like India earlier.
 
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