Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
grunge said:
It did seem a tad far fetched but from what they were saying, when the debt is owned by the bank that prints the money its all down to how quickly they can write it off without hitting inflation etc.

for scale the Bank of England added about £600bn in Quantitative easing surrounding the 2008 recession. that was £600bn they just created out of thin air. which is nearly double that of the Furlough scheme.

Its all about how that gets put into the economy without trashing the value of the £ or trashing inflation etc.

if that debt is bought by a foreign entity then its different.
Click to expand...

QE doesn't reduce debt it just hands £600bn to large bosses to spend where they want. Each week in lockdown is costing the country £10bn in debt which will have to be repaid all for the sake of about 2000 people who will die within 8 weeks time instead of within the next 4 weeks. The aftermath of this hasn't come yet I'm expecting some really bad times coming up. I feel sorry for the kids.
 
BlueAnorak said:
This wave is going to well undershoot the "optimistic" modeling predictions made 2
3 weeks ago.
Here are the figures for protection angainst severe illness as given as
LSHTM%/Imperial% -> Actual%

Protection against hospitalisation:
PZ 1 dose = 85%/76% -> 94%
PZ 2 doses = 90%/90% -> 96%
AZ 1 dose = 85%/78% -> 71%
AZ 2 doses = 90%/87% -> 92%

Infection and deaths are just as bad.
You just can't believe the modelling these institutions do.
Click to expand...

A few weeks ago I create a model of my own to monitor what SAGE was saying as I felt they'd completely messed up. Below are the current results. Even I'm way over where I'd expect us to be and that margin of error is only getting bigger. There's zero justification in this delay

1624292560533.png
 
BerkshireBlue said:
QE doesn't reduce debt it just hands £600bn to large bosses to spend where they want. Each week in lockdown is costing the country £10bn in debt which will have to be repaid all for the sake of about 2000 people who will die within 8 weeks time instead of within the next 4 weeks. The aftermath of this hasn't come yet I'm expecting some really bad times coming up. I feel sorry for the kids.
Click to expand...

QE wasn't the term they were using, just one im using in my attempt to explain what they were trying to tell me. frankley the conversation was above my pay grade when it comes to economics.

Next time I chat to them I'll see if I can get a more accurate view of it all and some sources.

general jist was, when the debt is owned by the bank that prints the cash ( Bank of England ) then its all very different to debt bonds owned by external entities and can, in effect, be managed away without "repaying" it.
 
I notice that Spain’s scientists are predicting that delta will be the dominant strain there in a few weeks.This is, of course, without vast numbers of UK tourists visiting there. They seem to accept it and aren’t panicking about what the effect will be.

Compare this to our government who are trying the panic the whole country, despite the fact that we already have the “most deadly” variant here.
 
England Hospital data over the weekend is showing some slightly encouraging signs for the NW but other regions as expected are ticking up.

Admissions over the past 3 days topped 200 for the first time on Thursday at 202 then fell to 185 Friday and 178 Saturday. These are always 2 dys behind the other hospital numbers. Previous week the numbers were 162 - 144 - 137.

NW numbers for the 3 days were 68 - 65 - 53 versus last week 63 - 51 - 57 - so it is down a little.

Though NW still the highest numbers other regions are closing in and wer up week to week

London 29 -28 - 27 TO 31 - 26 - 31

Midlands27 - 21 - 22 TO 30 - 29 - 34

NE & Yorkshire the biggest of all from 18 - 20 - 12 TO 40 - 39 - 38 Reflecting a big jumo in cases there this week.

Patients Fell Saturday from 1170 to 1143 Then rose Sunday to 1168 BUT today rose the biggest yet by 122 in the day to 1290.

Now that several regions are going up together and NW not yet falling enough these numbers are going to climb sadly I fear. Let us hope not too much 2000/3000 in England hospitals we can manage. We do not want to see it much above there if possible.

NW Patients went 411 - 384 - 412 - 436 - so up 25 of the 120 England rise of the weekend. Which is OK.

Last wk NW rose in the same period by 56 of the 109 - so proportionately That was more than double worse than this weekend.

London rose by 14 to 303, Midlands rose by 39 to 205 NE & Yorks by 26 to 175

But the increases are being spread around as you see.

Ventilators went over the weekend from 210 - 203 - 196 - but up today to 212 - so sadly a big jump today but only 2 over the period.

Last week they went up from 146 to 170 so that is clearly worse than this weekend.

Regionally the NW did OK. Still the highest but went 83 - 78 - 71 - 81 - so after big falla up the most todaybut down across the weekend and it would have been a very good weekend but for today.

Midlands rose from 24 to 33, and London from 55 to 56. Everywhere else like NW either fell or stayed the same.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
A few weeks ago I create a model of my own to monitor what SAGE was saying as I felt they'd completely messed up. Below are the current results. Even I'm way over where I'd expect us to be and that margin of error is only getting bigger. There's zero justification in this delay

View attachment 19755
Click to expand...
The problem with any modelling is that in all but the most simple scenarios it’s always wrong. As with all models the initial conditions have to be defined which in this case is nigh on impossible. We just don’t know how many people have immunity outside the group who have been double vaccinated, how they will interact with the community in terms of social contact with vaccinated and non vaccinated population etc.
They will always err on the side of pessimism and the cumulative error from the input data all add up.
That all said, considering the very low rate of deaths and much slower increase in cases a re-evaluation should be undertaken ASAP.
 
In the UK there are 218 patients in the other 3 nations (158 Scotland, 44 Wales and 16 Northern Ireland)

Last week there were 180 patients - so up 38 - mostly in Scotland.

That means the UK total patients today is 1508 versus 1173 last week. Which is about a one third rise in the week. The week before it was 1020 - so a rise of around 15%.

Ventilators in the other 3 nations total 15 (1 Wales, 0 N Ireland. 14 Scotland)

Last week it was 21 - so these have fallen by 23% week to week.

So total ventilators in UK today is 227 versus 191 last week - a rise of about 20%

The week before it was 148 - a rise of about 30%
 
Kompany Car said:
The problem with any modelling is that in all but the most simple scenarios it’s always wrong. As with all models the initial conditions have to be defined which in this case is nigh on impossible. We just don’t know how many people have immunity outside the group who have been double vaccinated, how they will interact with the community in terms of social contact with vaccinated and non vaccinated population etc.
They will always err on the side of pessimism and the cumulative error from the input data all add up.
That all said, considering the very low rate of deaths and much slower increase in cases a re-evaluation should be undertaken ASAP.
Click to expand...

for me their models are completely wrong and they need to stand up and explain why in a tribunal in the following weeks. Yes all models are wrong but even a person looking at only the public data could create a quick model that outperforms theirs within the space of 30 minutes. Questions need to be asked. The same thing happened in March with the herd immunity bullshit, right at the start you could get an estimated 500,000 deaths number within a day using prescription data, population, and age skews. It seemed to take them a whole month to get this figure probably using slow algorithms ran on huge computers for weeks on end. As soon as they knew the number they seemed to panic as the realisation that they've fucked up sank in.
 
When do we stop counting deaths, this going to be going on forever, or do we restart 1st January, doesn't happen with other illnesses, this isn't a pop at anyone, but do you think we will stop soon. Lol
 
uweblue said:
When do we stop counting deaths, this going to be going on forever, or do we restart 1st January, doesn't happen with other illnesses, this isn't a pop at anyone, but do you think we will stop soon. Lol
Click to expand...
I mentioned in earlier post that dying with Covid sounds ‘sexier’ than cancer or heart disease
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East DOWN 28 to 413 V 344

London UP 137 to 1025 V 778

South East UP 89 to 818 V 607

South West DOWN 13 to 746 V 503






MIDLANDS



East UP 74 to 508 V 400

West DOWN 2 to 637 V 536



Much the same story here.




NORTH



North East UP 207 to 848 V 313 - Almost tripled in the week after another big rise here.


Yorkshire UP 54 to 991 V 635 - up week to week but not got to 1000 despite being close for a few days.



AND

NORTH WEST UP 334 to 2441 V 2262 -



Past weeks NW numbers are 2262 - 2017 - 2157 - 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2107 - 2441

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 1673 - 1840 - 2112 - 1976 - 2317 - 2191 - 2134 -2262

GM numbers in past week 1103 - 1014 - 925 - 1341 - 1306 - 1151- 974 - 1086
 
Last edited:
Full GM details:


Total cases 1086 - UP 112 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 334. Well below the 50% par - so good news.

Wk to wk DOWN 17 when the NW rose by 179 - So GM fell as the entire region went yp.

So GM had a really good day wk to wk relative to rest of the region.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 79 / UP 3 / DOWN 30

BURY 71 / DOWN 24 / DOWN 31

MANCHESTER 266 / UP 5 / UP 10

OLDHAM 93 / UP 52 / UP 30

ROCHDALE 73 / DOWN 6 / UP 1

SALFORD 111 / DOWN 3 / DOWN 21

STOCKPORT 89 / UP 27 / DOWN 3

TAMESIDE 78 / UP 31 / UP 15

TRAFFORD 91 / UP 8 / UP 10

WIGAN 135 / UP 19 / UP 2


More ups than downs but Bury and Salford has a good day and nobody was in much trouble.

Stockport flattened off a bit. Oldham way up day to day and week to week. Yesterday number was rather too low.

Bolton jhas had 4 out of last 6 numbers under 100.

All in all a good day.
 
Last edited:
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 486, Rochdale 524, Oldham 527, Stockport 569, Trafford 599, Bury 608, Bolton 686, Salford 841. Wigan 985, Manchester 1982.



Manchester almost 2000 now and Salford and Wigan both well ahead of Bolton which is falling fast and closing in one other boroughs with Wigan close to four figures. But has avoided it for days now happily.

Stockport's good few days see it fall back even more and overtake Trafford.

But Rochdale sneaked back ahead of Oldham with Tameside still sub 500 but rise a bit today.
 
Healdplace said:
England Hospital data over the weekend is showing some slightly encouraging signs for the NW but other regions as expected are ticking up.

Patients Fell Saturday from 1170 to 1143 Then rose Sunday to 1168 BUT today rose the biggest yet by 122 in the day to 1290.

Now that several regions are going up together and NW not yet falling enough these numbers are going to climb sadly I fear. Let us hope not too much, 2000/3000 in England hospitals we can manage. We do not want to see it much above there if possible.
Click to expand...
I think that's right, hospitals can cope with a moderate increase, but not much more than that. Chris Hopson, effectively the spokesman for NHS hospitals ("providers") was just on LBC reminding us we had c. 34,000 in hospital with Covid at the start of the year compared to c. 1,300 now. We just need to keep jabbing.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 359 / 329 / UP 30 Testing positive 10.8%

Salford 325 / 338 / DOWN 13 Testing positive 10.1%

Bury 319 / 294 / UP 25 Testing positive 10,1%

Wigan 299 / 250 / UP 49 Testing positive 9.8%

Trafford 253 / 205 / UP 48 Testing positive 7.8%

Bolton 239 / 293 / DOWN 54 Testing positive 11.3%

Rochdale 236 / 224 / UP 12 Testing positive 10.5 %

Oldham 223 / 194 / UP 29 Testing positive 10.4%

Tameside 215 / 174 / UP 41 Testing positive 8.8%

Stockport 194 / 226 / DOWN 32 Testing positive 7.9%


Manchester pulling clear and Salford has now become the third borough behind Bolton and Stockport to FALL in the week to week Pop Score.

Wigan improved enough to go under 300 again today

And Trafford's run of bad numbers took them above the falling Bolton today.

Stockport still the only borough below 200 but looks to have plateaued

Trafford's high numbers lost it another big chunk of its lead on overall Pop Score from Stockport who had a much better day today.

Stockport now on 7945 and Trafford on 7822 cutting the latter's lead by another 8 in one day to 123.

Bolton is on its lowest Pop Score since Delta arrived.

However, Bolton unsurprisingly given its recent big numbers still has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 328.

However, there are now 5 boroughs in the 10,000 club - Manchester on 10, 830 a week at most away from joining Bolton in the 11K club.

Rochdale on 10, 454 and Oldham 10, 450 - in a tight neighboroughood spat still.

Salford are on 10, 133 and Bury just behind on 10117.

So only 4 boroughs now sub 10,000 tomorrow. Trafford and Stockport months away bar a disaster.

Wigan up to 9779 and if they continue at this rate are a week away from the 10K club..

Hopefully the slow down will extend that until nobody cares.

Tameside possibly may get there too this side of autumn - at 8770 - but that is a good few weeks away.
 
hammocity said:
I also didn't engage with the dipper, couldn't wait until to get away.
Click to expand...

Same here. The bloke I was talking too was frothing at the mouth and his eyes wide open. It was rather uncomfortable. It was only after mouthing off he asked how I was. I hadn't seen him for a year. Myself and another Blue who works for the same organisation generally avoid him.
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:


Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 74.9% / 53.9 % V 74.7 / 53.5%

BURY 76.2% / 55.2% V 76.1% / 54.8%

MANCHESTER 57.6% / 34.8% V 57.3% / 34.4%

OLDHAM 70.3% / 51.9% V 70.0% / 51.7%

ROCHDALE 72.2% / 51.1% V 72.2% / 50.5%

SALFORD 64.4 % / 42.9% V 64.0% / 42.8%

STOCKPORT 79.9% / 59.1% V 79.8% / 58.9%

TAMESIDE 75.2% / 56.0% V 75.1% / 55.8%

TRAFFORD 76.5% / 56.1% V 76.4% / 56.0%

WIGAN 78.8% / 57.8% V 78.7% / 57.7%


Manchester biggest total increase today of 0.7% Hopefully they are taking the targetting approach.

But everywhere was well down in numbers being Sunday.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top