Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
True_Blue69 said:
Don’t agree with most of that. what about people taking personal responsibility they know eating takeaways 5 times a week is bad. And that is rubbish about fast food being cheaper, a lean protein (chicken, 5% fat beef, turkey, smoked bass fillets etc) are under £1 a portion, rice or potato is next to nothing and brocolli, cauliflower and other green veg is about 60p. It’s an easy excuse saying it’s cheaper to eat junk. A curry or Chinese is at least £6 compared to £2.50 for a healthy meal.
Click to expand...

 
Think the difference with the stats now is that everyone else is posting in here less because there's minimal impact to peoples day to day.

So it can just be stats after stats now as there are less other posts.
 
Thanks to you all for the comments. It is appreciated.

I really do get why some people think this is somehow an ego trip by me for posting data.

But they are wrong. As I have said many times the day is coming when it will not be something we do as we will choose to live with Covid and will need to sideline numbers because they will only get in the way of doing that.

More and more people will drift away from this thread. That will be a good day. I will very much welcome it. As I suspect will most here. But whilst there are still briefings and committees and threats of further restrictions the data will still be out there and debated in the media daily and reported often with their own agenda.

I started doing this in Spring 2020 because I was alerted to the excellent data Gelson's Dad was posting every day. He got driven off here then at the start of this pandemic and never returned. I have no idea why at that time when we were in a huge mess anyone would not want to see the data and decide for themselves rather than be told what it means by whatever media source you happened to follow. But I just took over doing what he was doing because I missed the raw numbers.

There truly has never been anything else to it but that. I have no need to chase followers or publicity. Indeed I actively avoid it. As those who know me understand.

As a writer I have worked with and for the media much of my life. Been employed by both ITV and BBC to do so on projects also. I know their agenda all too well. Been at the sharp end of it more than once in the press despite not being remotely famous as they can and do spin stories as they see fit. So I know the importance of facts over spin.

If I was interested in some kind of self promotion or glory I would be giving my real name and it might even sell a few more books. But I have deliberately avoided doing that as my only intention was to offer up the numbers in the way Gelson's Dad was prevented from doing. I do not want to be part of the story. Just the poster of numbers because I happen to have the time to do this. Which most other people who are younger than me or have ties that I no longer do will have.

When enough people drift away or it becomes obvious the time is right to stop paying daily attention to the numbers I will know it is time to stop posting them.

Or indeed if I am asked to do so by those left on here I will do the same. I have more books to write (indeed just got the proof copy of one I managed to write despite apparently spending all day every day on here posting earlier this year). And I write every month for a newsstand magazine. These are on subjects about as far removed from Covid as you can imagine.

I will be delighted to get back to that and never have to think about Covid again. That day is coming. And the sooner the better for me as well as I am sure most of you.
 
Last edited:
Del_Bosque said:
Think the difference with the stats now is that everyone else is posting in here less because there's minimal impact to peoples day to day.

So it can just be stats after stats now as there are less other posts.
Click to expand...
Yes I had noticed that too - hence my saying above that the time is coming when stat reporting will be redundant. I look forward to that day. Though I imagine some reading this will think I will be devastated they could not be more wrong.

The thread being full of stats will speed its ending I suspect. The politics thread will likely last a lot longer but I will not migrate to there. When it is over it will be over.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

AS OF LAST NIGHT

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


BOLTON 276 // 249 // UP 27 WAS 176 (up 100)

BURY 312 // 309 // UP 3 WAS 329 (Down 17)

ROCHDALE 319 // 292 // UP 27 WAS 220 (up 99)

MANCHESTER 324 // 275 //UP 49 WAS 279 (up 45)

OLDHAM 349 // 209 // UP 140 WAS 304 (up 45)

WIGAN 366 // 281 // UP 85 WAS 179 (up 171)

TRAFFORD 367 // 328 // UP 39 WAS 329 (up 38)

SALFORD 372 // 330 // UP 42 WAS 214 (Up 158)

STOCKPORT 394 // 357 // UP 37 WAS 304 (up 90)

TAMESIDE 487 // 416 // UP 71 WAS 278 (Up 209)


Bolton the only one left in the 200s. Though it was up again today.

But Bury the only borough down v a month ago. So probably doing the best right now.

Tameside is clearly in most trouble and nearly 100 ahead of the rest now and rising daily towards 500.

Though Oldham is rising both fastest and the most right now and could soon shoot up the table.

Stockport jumped up again. But the rest of GM is now closer behind than was.

This is the final day of the low numbers a month ago caused by the population redistribution and from tonight's data the comparison month to month will become more meaningful.
 
Last edited:
Rammy Blue said:
Playing Devil’s advocate, and this is just my opinion and of course I understand if people want to dismiss my comments with a jibe, but….

Personally, I think we are now beyond the point where we need the breakdowns of regional figures, splits within Greater Manchester, regional splits for hospitalisation etc etc.

@Healdplace has done a remarkable job over the last 12/18 months in keeping us updated, I personally still pop into this thread every day to glance read, I feel I’ve moved on from being “addicted” to this thread, but I do think that people don’t take as much notice of the split figures as they used to, certainly no one comments about them.

We are going to be living with covid for a while, maybe forever, and just a nice set of daily stats on the various headline figures, including obviously a country split etc, would be all that i think is now required.

Anyway, just my 2p’s worth.
Click to expand...
And that’s cool. You don’t have to look at/form an opinion from the figures. Others still do. People are different.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
And that’s cool. You don’t have to look at/form an opinion from the figures. Others still do. People are different.
Click to expand...
I really appreciate this feedback, And I am not far off thinking much the same myself.

At some point when the thread wants to do so please organise a vote and as and when that vote says to do as you suggest I will very gladly comply.

Democracy should decide.

Meantime I will keep posting the numbers until asked not to do so. And people can easily skip reading the data as I know very well many already must do. Which is 100% OK with me.
 
Healdplace said:
I really appreciate this feedback, And I am not far off thinking much the same myself.

At some point when the thread wants to do so please organise a vote and as and when that vote says to do as you suggest I will very gladly comply.

Democracy should decide.

Meantime I will keep posting the numbers until asked not to do so. And people can easily skip reading the data as I know very well many already must do. Which is 100% OK with me.
Click to expand...
I think you’ll know the right time to stop. You’re clearly a highly intellectual person with a nose for what is important and when.

When you start thinking that we’ve broken the back of this virus, you’ll have a gut feeling that the stats don’t matter anymore.

I would trust that judgement far more than randomers that pop up briefly from time to time.

Some people need to believe that the pandemic is over to cope mentally. Others need to see the data to believe we still have it under control, whilst the rest probably look at the figures as a guide to see where we are up to. (I’m probably in the last category)

As you suggest, people aren’t as glued to them anymore as we have some semblance of normality returning, but whilst Covid is bubbling away in the background, I think the figures are still warranted.
 
WALES DATA

9 deaths - was 5 last week

2297 cases - was 2275 last week - Pretty flat

11.7% positivity - was 12.5% last week - this starting to fall is a good sign


404 patients - was 322 last week

50 ventilated - was 45 last week

Hospital numbers still rising as they will lag cases by at least a few days
 
ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE



Predicted cases DOWN for third day running.

Though by 1250 (biggest drop in a while after falls of 251 and 78 previous days) - on 50, 626 FROM 51, 876


However, ongoing symptomatic cases also FELL for fourth day running.

DOWN to 729, 890 FROM 736, 187 - which at a fall of 6297 is the biggest in a while - from a fall of 1720 yesterday & of 452 and 71 in previous two days.

A promising trajectory.
 
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West FALLS a little again to 726 / 954 FROM 735 / 967

NW stays at FOURTH of the 12 regions.


Behind Scotland (still TOP) and Wales (now second)

THOUGH ONLY SCOTLAND NOW LEFT IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE AS WALES DROPS OUT TODAY


Yorkshire still third.

Both East Midlands in 5th (673/925) and North East now down in sixth (577 / 953) are also in the middle watch zone.

London is now the lowest region in the UK.

Alongside West Midlands (589/831), South East (608/735), South West (565 / 731), Northern Ireland (314 / 1080) and East (556 / 725).

London HAS been falling for days and now on best numbers in a while on just 559 / 717


Scotland TOP is VERY slightly DOWN - on 940 / 1236 FROM 941 / 1240


WALES in second is DOWN on 822 / 1166 FROM 833 / 1184


Yorkshire in third is DOWN on 794 / 1068 FROM 816 / 1098



N Ireland is also DOWN on 314 / 1080 FROM 320 / 1105
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY'S DATA


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Bury - very surprisingly - shows a BIG jump up on Zoe making it the highest in GM. Which seems unlikely.
UP on 18, 198 FROM 9988.


Tameside - much more credibly - shoots up too into second place UP on 17, 001 FROM 12, 092

Wigan also credibly is up to third - though DOWN - on 15, 404 FROM 16, 114

Manchester is fourth though DOWN on 14, 643 FROM 17, 029

Salford recent rises but better day yesterday match it going down to fifth spot DOWN on 13, 961 FROM 16, 141.

Trafford falls too after a good day yesterday into sixth DOWN on 13, 379 FROM 16, 752

Rochdale seventh also DOWN on 12, 984 FROM 15, 920

Bolton in eighth staying flat but a bit high as in real data DOWN on 10, 383 FROM 10, 951


So GM has just 2 boroughs now in the lower watch zone:-


Stockport is now only ninth highest from top a week ago - after a run of better numbers in the real data but is UP today a little again on 8898 FROM 8048 after seven straight falls here. Matching its real cases going up yesterday for first time in a few days.

So - if you trust this data !

Oldham is still (just) the lowest region but also UP on 8506 FROM 7459

We will see!





REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan has suddenly PLUMMETED DOWN from over 30K but is UP today on 10, 097 FROM 8663.


Liverpool DOWN on 9716 FROM 11, 304

AND St Helens DOWN on 20, 076 FROM 23, 701- But still the most in the North West.

also

Though Sefton (the coastal part of Merseyside and Lancashire) is DOWN on 15, 738 FROM 18, 061

And the Blackpool coast area in the sun and with the illuminations opening is DOWN a tad on 11, 355 FROM 11, 380

Chorley is DOWN again on 12, 102 FROM 13, 949




Cheshire East - is still low yet slightly UP again on 6259 FROM 5903 - but flat for days and behind everywhere in GM.

And much better than Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW driving the regions cases - much higher though DOWN on 15, 742 FROM 16, 126
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

99 WITH 12 NORTH WEST - Last week 118 with 20 NW, Wk before 100 with 10. NW

Very flat numbers here which is hopeful

BY REGION:-

East 18, London 16, Midlands 26, NE & Yorkshire 19, North West 12, South East 2, South West 6


Most by trust:- Bedfordshire 8, Hull 7, Nottingham 6

NW Trusts:- 5 Manchester, 3 St Helens and 1 each in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Salford, Wigan & Wirral.

BY AGE:-


20 - 39 (4), 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (47), 80 PLUS (34)

AGAIN NOTE AS OFTEN LATELY THE OVER 80s NOT THE MOST
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

SEP 3 has reached 98 deaths and looks set to be the first single day in England hospitals to have 100 deaths in 6 months.

It is currently an outlier day. No other days are over 89.

The last time more than 98 were recorded was 112 on MAR 12

FOR COMPARISON ON 3 SEP 2020 THERE WERE JUST 4 DEATHS.~

AND ON SEP 8 (A YEAR AGO YESTERDAY) THERE WERE 11.


10 WERE ADDED YESTERDAY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE IN THE 70s/80s BY MONDAY.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


We now have another 7 days totals to compare:

HERE ARE THE LAST FOUR WEEKS OF FIVE DAY TOTALS (AS IN TOTAL AFTER 5 DAYS REPORTING)

WEEK // CASES PER DAY // TOTAL FOR THE 7 DAYS // (TOTAL NOW AFTER ANY ADD ONS SINCE)

08 AUG - 14 AUG // 57 - 40 - 48 - 57 - 66 - 53 - 69 // 390 // (TOTAL NOW 451)

15 AUG - 21 AUG // 60 - 56 - 66 - 57 - 65 - 71 - 73 // 448 // (TOTAL NOW 485)

22 AUG - 28 AUG // 78 - 71 - 82 - 57 - 62 - 73 - 70 // 493 // (TOTAL NOW 553)

29 AUG - 04 SEP // 69 - 73 - 77 - 62 - 69 - 88 - 70 // 508 // (TOTAL NOW 539)



YOU WILL NOTICE THE 5 DAY TOTALS ARE CLEARLY SLOWING THEIR INCREASE WEEK TO WEEK

BUT - AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT - THE NUMBERS ADDED ON AFTER 5 DAYS ARE GOING UP AND NEED TO BE REMEMBERED AS _ OBVIOUSLY - THE MOST RECENT DAYS HAVE NOT HAD THE SAME TIME TO ADD ON AND WILL GO UP MORE.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

12 deaths - was 17 last week - some better news at least

6836 cases - was 6400 last week - still up but at least fairly flattish now

10.8% positivity - was 11.1% last week - again fairly flat and slightly down

928 patients - up 45 on yesterday & was 624 last week - a near 50% rise is not good news

87 ventilated icu - up 5 on yesterday & was 55 last week - these too are now rising rather a lot

Scotland hospital data is clearly worse than England right now but has had these high cases for a while.

If England goes up in the same way it will not be good given the far higher overall numbers it will involve. But for now it is still flat.

BUT.....schools returned 2 weeks earlier in Scotland so no time to be complacent. Hopefully not but this could be showing the next week or two south of the border.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

8 deaths - was 12 last week

1831 cases - was 793 last week ( today is up on lately but last week was curiously low)

5.5% positivity - was 4.9% last week

Weekly cases total 10, 204 - was 9892 yesterday & 9393 last week

125 CARE HOME outbreaks - was 126 yesterday & 135 last week - Happily this is helping deaths to fall too.

472 patients - up 20 on yesterday & was 417 last week

34 ventilated - up 1 on yesterday - was 38 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE

The basis of the N I tests are made crystal clear by the following.

0 - 19 (4200) 41.2%

20 - 39 (2586) 25.4%

40 - 59 (2223) 21.8%

60 - 79 (906) 8.9%

80 PLUS (286) 2.7%

A HUGE RISE IN THE NUMBER OF 19 AND UNDER IN PAST WEEK IS DRIVING THE INCREASE

THE REST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED

SO SCHOOL TESTING IS WHY CASES ARE RISING
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top