Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

I've given up both reporting and paying any attention to Zoe. The data seems all over the place and I think its probably overwhelmed by selection bias: the people still reporting on Zoe are those most engaged with the topic, probably most careful, and most likely to be vaxxed.

They try to remove these biases in the analysis, but I think it's now close to meaningless.

I agree to an extent and it is certainly not in any sense more than a guide to trends.

But I post the data still as by and large it is still matching those trends quite well. It showed up clearly in advance things like Salford's dramatic improvement from very bad numbers to some of the best around and Stockport going in the reverse direction.

Those were very unlikely things to happen when they did so Zoe still gets key things right but in terms of taking its numbers seriously or every trend being on the money, I agree that is going to mislead as much as it will be right.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

NOT QUITE SO GOOD NEWS TODAY. THOUGH COULD BE WORSE.

Predicted cases are

UP FROM 43, 740 TO 44, 459 - a rise of of 719 - After a fall of 465 yesterdayand 1949 the day before.

It WAS 46, 994 last Tuesday - a FALL week to week of 2535 - which is up from a weekly fall of 2408 yesterday.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also fall for the fifteenth day running. BUT the fall is significantly down




FROM 661, 763 TO 658, 507 - A fall of 3256 - after a fall of 7276 yesterday and prior falls of 10, 561, 1392, 5951,4129, 4595. 4710, 6108.

IT WAS 695, 667 last Tuesday. A weekly fall of 37, 160- UP from a week to week fall of 32K yesterday.

There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West UP quite a bit to 707 / 941 FROM TO 671 / 897 - BIG ENOUGH RISE TO KNOCK THE REGION DOWN TO FOURTH highest of the 12 regions after it had fallen for several days.


WALES stay top and also UP quite a bit. Scotland up quite a bit too and back up to third.

North East stays in fifth well behind the NW now.

But bucks the trend and is DOWN slightly on 628 / 1022 FROM 629 / 1024


Yorkshire stays in second but like the others is UP today quite a bit.

N Ireland also goes UP enough to take it back into the higher watch zone.

UP today on 410 / 1277 FROM 383 / 1196 .




East and West Midlands lead the middle watch zone with all the southern regions there or even lower.

Indeed East Midlands is UP again today on 629 / 884 FROM 618/ 865



South West is the BEST in the UK in the very lowest watch zone and also bucked the trend and were DOWN today: FROM 420 / 570 TO 403 / 553

It has been joined in that lowest zone by South East ALSO DOWN on 425 / 535 FROM 440 / 550 - the best falls right now are happening in the south with the areas further north starting to edge up.



LONDON - though - edges UP again today on 470 / 623 FROM 467 / 616



West Midlands is UP on 470 / 695 FROM 450 / 666 and East UP on 478 / 640 FROM 472 / 630.



UP TOP:-

WALES well UP on 836 / 1182 FROM 811 / 1147 - still easily the highest in the UK

Yorkshire UP too in second on 777 / 1055 FROM 756 / 1022

Scotland (third) UP today too on 701 / 968 FROM 686 / 945

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Rochdale stays the new leader - despite having the best numbers in GM yesterday - suggesting Zoe is off beam here - but falls DOWN on 13, 920 FROM 15, 103

Stockport stays second but is still falling as it has been for a few days here (if not yet in the real cases daily) and just missing going into the lower watch zone - DOWN to 10, 800 FROM 12,118

Tameside in third is UP big today and back into the higher watch zone on 10, 024 FROM 6131 - though these numbers are as usual hard to trust but are more in line with the real daily cases


EVERYONE ELSE STILL IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE


Bury is fourth and also UP on 8709 FROM 7336.

Manchester is fifth also UP on 8615 FROM 7206

Oldham more credibly rises to sixth UP on 6779 FROM 4881

Trafford is seventh and DOWN on 6668 FROM 6900

Bolton is DOWN and now eighth on 5667 FROM 6112

Wigan falls to ninth DOWN steadily as in real case data now on 4253 FROM 4864


BUT BEST IN GM AFTER WEEKS OF DAILY FALLS IN THE REAL DATA TOO :-


Salford DOWN to its lowest numbers in months on 3355 FROM 3391





REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is UP on 30, 305 FROM 29, 185 still the highest in the NW.


Liverpool is DOWN a bit but well above all of GM on 20, 840 FROM 21, 601

Sefton a little DOWN on 15, 208 FROM 18, 681



So Merseyside not GM is the real problem in the North West as you can see according to Zoe. Explaining why the GM split of NW numbers is so good

Even Warrington is now over all of GM on 16, 507 UP FROM 16 , 261 and West Lancashire (in land between Southport and Wigan) is UP too on 11, 441


The Wyre coast (Fleetwood) is way DOWN again though on 6366


LAKE DISTRICT NORTH UP ON 20, 033 AND LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE EVEN HIGHER UP ON 20, 863

ONLY ST HELENS IS HIGHER THAN THE LAKE DISTRICT



BUT THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS:-

Cheshire East which has followed Stockport again recently but today is UP a great deal to one of the highest scores it has had.

UP to 17, 766 FROM 10, 966,

Very unusual for Cheshire East to be above all GM boroughs.

However, Chester and Cheshire West is DOWN on 16, 374 and for the first time is below Cheshre East.

 

[bluemc1]

No underlying health conditions at all mate no, he would walk on average 12,000 steps a day, was a member of a local walking club at Chadderton park to. I genuinely don’t ever remember him even having any illness note other than a cold.

We caught Covid in January when my mum passed away, I spent about 8 days in hospital, my dad spent 24 hours (my blood oxygen was 85%, my dads was 91), buy we both made a recovery. We spoke to many doctors (well 5), who said wait 28 days before vaccine, we waited 6 weeks. The day before my dad had done one of his walks and was feeling great. Friday he has the vaccine, Sunday he was in icu on a ventilator.

Probably stupid but we’re still fighting against his actual cause of death which currently reads “natural causes”.

sorry about your loss mate, tough times

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

ALWAYS BIG ON TUESDAY WITH WEEKEND CATCH UP BUT A LITTLE MORE THAN HOPED FOR TODAY

174 with 34 North West - Last Week was 142 with 20 NW & Wk before 182 with 21 NW.

Every day today had more cases added than this day last week - though usually only by 1 or 2.

Indeed looks like this past 7 days of deaths might be lower than last week - but still two days to go and that might change. That NW total is also higher than expected.

BY REGION:-

East 16, London 24, Midlands 25, NE & Yorkshire 41, North West 34, South East 22, South West 12

Most by trust - 6 each in Barts London, Birmingham & Basetlaw

NW Trusts:- 6 each in Lancashire, Liverpool & Pennine, 4 in Salford, 3 in Blackpool, 2 each in Bolton. East Lancashire & Mid Cheshire and 1 each in Manchester, Stockport & Wirral

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

7 deaths - was 5 last week

2576 Cases - was 1924 last week - ONE DAY only so quite a rise sadly

12% positivity - was 11.8% last week

512 patients - was 500 last week

49 ventilated - was 47 last week

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

NB: The data issue in Grampian has been resolved but now one has occurred in Borders too!

18 deaths - was 21 last week

2870 cases - was 3375 last week -

11.7% positivity - was 11.4% last week - So cases down but positivity up so hard to be sure if data is trustworthy

1107 patients - up 19 in day - was 1064 last week - Monday is a big admissions day usually

94 ventilated icu - was 97 yesterday & 89 last week - this is more equitable than it was lately

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

It is a lot easier to NOT read a thread you don't want to read than to read a thread you do want to read that has been removed by those who choose not to do so and seek its removal on your behalf.

As I have posted a few times it will be a good day for me when I stop doing this. But as I have the time and the ability I will carry on until asked to stop or I feel it is not serving any purpose any more.

But when I see the data revealing the issues in Stockport over the past 10 days that so far every even local media source appears to have missed then it seems to have a purpose.

This happened with Bolton in April - flagged up in here before the media though they got onto that quite quickly. So it serves a purpose for now. But I very much look forward to the day when it does not,

This is not at all being self congratulatory BTW. It is just that I chart things no working journalist could do in such detail as they do not have the time to do it whereas I do.

And posters in here will decide that time to stop along with Ric making the decision and I will oblige the moment I am asked to stop. Unless the government decide to stop posting data when they will make the call for us,

There’s no need to get all shirty with me and post those same justifications you’ve posted before.

Read through my precious posts on this thread if you want, I’ve always defended you.

Just saying for me I’m past all these numbers, but I do think that some people have become unhealthily addicted to it.

Not having a dig at you so there’s no need to get all defensive ffs.

 

[blueparrot]

SCOTLAND DATA

NB: The data issue in Grampian has been resolved but now one has occurred in Borders too!

18 deaths - was 21 last week

2870 cases - was 3375 last week -

11.7% positivity - was 11.4% last week - So cases down but positivity up so hard to be sure if data is trustworthy

1107 patients - up 19 in day - was 1064 last week - Monday is a big admissions day usually

94 ventilated icu - was 97 yesterday & 89 last week - this is more equitable than it was lately

Wouldn't worry too much about the Borders we'll only add about 25 to the total.