daveduke67
Well-Known Member
SWP's back said:My suggestion is still the best from the thread in the long term. Nothing risky in only having one type of investment, given a good fund spread.daveduke67 said:SWP's back said:Ok here goes. Assuming the bond out grows the withdrawls by 2% pa, in twenty years the original £1000,000 would be worth £1,491,800. That may or may not worth more than it is now in terms of real value but it would be close either way and certainly have avoided the vast majority of any capital erosion, especially when compared with deposit based accounts which never will.
The "average" bond has returned just over 6% pa over the last 20 years. THSP managed fund has averaged 9.7% over the last 20 years (a period more tumultuous than any other in history, including black wednesday, dot com bubble burst, 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan and the credit crunch), so it would be fair to say that similar returns (if not possibly greater) could be forecast going forward.
A 20 year time period is far more reliable to look at than 5 years as the investment would be for a minimum of 20 years to make best use of the annual 5% allowance and allows for good years with 30% growth and bad years with up to 15% loss.
The question was "can one retire on £1m", not what is the best advice for someone that has £1M in liquid assets mate.
The FSA best advice is to keep 3x months expenditure in very liquid emergency funds to cover unexpected expenses.
A capital investment bond of £1M could, in theory be invested into 200 different funds, and cover a veritable smörgåsbord of risk and investment strategies. Just because it is all ring fenced under the same policy number does not affect that. You could have funds that invest in cash, derivatives, bonds, gilts, equities, property etc (ie all the asset classes) and one would obviously pick the funds to match the investors unique risk profile, goals and aspirations.
My point was that DLBH suggested something that wasn't really the way to maximise potential income - and you came back with something that wouldn't be best advice either. I'm pretty sure you wouldn't advise someone to invest 100% of their capital in one type of bond either with various risk funds within it or with different companies - and I did originally say one typeof investment not a single bond. I am well aware of the fact that you can have multi fund investments.
You said "The question was "can one retire on £1m", not what is the best advice for someone that has £1M in liquid assets mate". I don't see your point with that statement. What are you taking the 'on £1m' to mean? I was assuming that they would be getting their income from a best advice portfolio designed around their circumstaces. Were you saying that there is a bond available that would give £50k (based on 5% p.a. potentially tax free withdrawals) even though in reality you wouldn't actually put eveything into it?
Depending on spending habits someone comfortably retire on DLBH's 3% gross income and another would be dipping into their capital within a few months with your more generous potentially tax free 5%.
I just though you were quick to ridicule his suggestion especially as it wasn't wrong - unlike the 250k a year suggestion - I hope that was just an accidental additional zero rather than a pre LAUTRO/FSA type of quote.
I hope this makes sense as I'm trying to entertain a three year old and make our tea at the same time.
5% with no tax is fantastic and there's no way your capital would be eroded over a 20 year timescale. There would be bad years for sure, but so long as society survives, the good years would outweigh them.
I will ridicule anyone who suggests a deposit based solution for £1,000,000. It would be crazy. Less return and more tax. Not exactly what one would define as best advice.
-- Fri Dec 02, 2011 8:17 pm --
Edit: what's wrong with investing in one type of bond Dave? Nothing in the fsa rulebook that suggests it can't be classed as best advice.
As you have no doubt encountered a few in your time, you will be more than aware of the old dears who insist in keeping their 0.1% savings accounts as they have a book. There are plenty of people about who won't do anything other than deposit accounts or, at a push, National Savings. That's why DLBHs suggestion, whilst not the best thing to do in our eyes -no commission for a start ;-), would be ideal for some people.
I agree that the rules don't say that there's anything wrong with one bond - but it wouldn't allow you to put 100% of capital into one which you'd need to do to get £50k p.a.
Anyway, why are we wasting our time on hypothetical nonsense like this - there's a muffin/barm debate that needs seeing to!