COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Uffa]

do things seem to be getting a little better ?

What I'm worried about is that some of my countrymen will see that cases and deaths keep rising and will think that the lockdown isn't working, even though they're being told countless times that results of the lockdown will only be visible in 2 weeks because of the nature of the virus itself.

So not yet no, even though at least the figures don't seem to be growing exponentially.

As for our routine, any company and employer who's able to make employees work from home is doing so, and as far as I personally am concerned we're getting university lessons uploaded online and some exams we've done via Skype or similar programs.
My brother and his classmates are actually attending high school lessons via webcam and it seems to be working.

 

[domalino]

Bit of a sobering phone call with my Nan just then, she's 80 in June and usually really stubborn but was a lot more compliant than usual when I was asking her to ask us (rest of the family) if she needs things doing; shopping etc...

Still can't stop her taking her dog for a walk in the park but just told her not to go within half a mile of someone, well to that extent anyway.

Baby steps but she'll be on lockdown eventually.



These next few weeks are going to be terrible.

BBC 5Live doctors saying walking the dog in the park is fine and don't try to take that away from them. As long as she stays 2m away from everyone, it's not a danger.

 

[goalmole]

Good explanation of it although I’m still not convinced by the logic (ie that the 10% that may need ICU won’t swamp the NHS if we have a huge boom in numbers)

Yes, I thought the whole point of the strategy was to flatten the curve, letting it rip isn't going to do that.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You must be confusing me with someone else - I have offered no opinion on projected numbers - 'anecdotal' or 'official' - the product of modelling used by the government advisors is the one I would trust if that's any help.

My apologies, yes I was confusing you with someone else. Not really paying full attention this a.m. as trying to get some work done.

 

[aguero93:20]

It might be, but it might not be. The stats are massively, massively skewed by the over 70's. It would not be surprising at all if they represented over 75% of the severe cases requiring extensive hospital treatment.

The effect of removing them from the equation by quarantining them will be massive, but I admit we won't know how big until we see some demographic data.

Don't know about you mate but I've over 70s and high risk people I really care about so I don't give a fuck if they're skewing the stats.

 

[SWP's back]

It might be, but it might not be. The stats are massively, massively skewed by the over 70's. It would not be surprising at all if they represented over 75% of the severe cases requiring extensive hospital treatment.

The effect of removing them from the equation by quarantining them will be massive, but I admit we won't know how big until we see some demographic data.

For a year? You think that’s likely?

 

[paulchapo]

My folks are due to fly to Ibiza via barcelona today and their flights are still on.

There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.

 

[domalino]

Don't know about you mate but I've over 70s and high risk people I really care about so I don't give a fuck if they're skewing the stats.

FFS you clown. Go back and read the conversation before jumping in and thinking you know what's going on.

We're talking about the effect of quarantining over 70's on the load on the NHS, how keeping them safe in isolation while lots of other people catch it keeps the healthcare system under it's capacity.

@SWP's back knows that, so fuck knows why he's liked your completely irrelevant comment.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Your stats are broken. Let’s look at March to date:

01/03 - 36 confirmed cases
02/03 - 39
03/03 - 51
04/03 - 87
05/03 - 116
06/03 - 164
07/03 - 209
08/03 - 278
09/03 - 321
10/03 - 383
11/03 - 460
12/03 - 590
13/03 - 798
14/03 - 1,140
15/03 - 1,391
16/03 - ?

Where is there even one 5-day doubling? 3 is about average but some are closer to 2 days than 5.

This what I wrote in an email to my MP, on Monday 9th:

"On February 23rd - two weeks ago today - Italy had less confirmed cases than we do today. Both the UK and Italy have seen exponential growth in cases at the rate of around 30% per day, resulting in the 7,000+ cases and hundreds of deaths in Italy over the last 2 weeks. The UK is seeing exactly the same rate of increase. In 2 weeks time, 6,000 or 7,000 people in the UK will be confirmed cases and we will have many tens of people dead, possibly hundreds. In 2 weeks. This is happening NOW. If you do not believe me, please keep this email and look at it in 2 weeks time."

I'd say we are on track for exactly that. Now it may be the rate of increase of numbers of confirmed cases does drop off a bit (since we've stopped counting them!!!??!) but even so I expect my prediction will be valid. I think we will certain see 100+ dead in the UK by next Monday.

 

[grunge]

Let's listen to Government epidemiologist Prof Katrina Lithgoe, world expert on predicting spread of infectious diseases in humans and animals currently on BBC2 who's just said 'we've just revised it down from 7 days to 5 days - directly contradicting a Dr Drobak who claimed 3 days doubling on the programme.

3 days doubling is the speed known cases are increase, this could be down to the speed of testing increasing rather than infection rates themselves. I admit im guilty of using the known cases speed increases before now but since it was pointed out that testing speeds have increased as well skewing that figure i've tried to just go off the official figures.

6/7 days is what most studies say this thing spreads at. dropping that to 5 is a massive difference.

our experts say we are 10/14 weeks from the peek so dropping it from 7 to 5 is 4 more doublings in that 10 weeks.

10 doublings from todays( known cases ) figures is 1.4m people. 14 doublings is 22.8m.