COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

It’s not going improve any time soon. Certainly for 2-4 weeks. So if it’s depressing you, I’d honestly suggest not clicking on the thread for a bit for your own mental health.

I am just having one of those days

 

[Chippy_boy]

Look at the graph. Exponential growth as everyone predicted.

There are 10 types of people who understand binary arithmetic, those who do, and those who don't ;-)

I don't need to look at the bloody graph mate, I understand what exponential growth means. I also understand that there can be different rates of exponential growth - something you seem to not have grasped.

For example, +10% per day is exponential growth. +26% per day is also exponential growth. That's roughly the growth curve for daily deaths we have been on for the past 2 or three weeks. Around +26% per day, give or take. Not +50% per day.

On that basis the *expected* number of deaths on Friday might have been around 115 + 26% = 144. But it was not that. It was 181. This is higher than expected.

+26% on 181 meant and *expected* number today of 228. But it was not that. It is 269. Again, not as expected. Higher than expected.

Please go off and have a think about this. If you want to post again, arguing with basic maths, then feel free but you are wasting your time. This is GCSE stuff or lower.

 

[oakiecokie]

You're looking at this too simplistically mate. Of course we expect the numbers to go up, no-one is questioning that. What you don't seem to be considering (and the point I was making) is how fast are they going up?

Numbers of deaths per day has been multiplying by 10 roughly every 9 or 10 days. That means an average daily increase of 26% per day (assuming 10 days).

The impact of that, if continuing is, clearly awful. It would mean 2,600 people per day dying in 10 days time, based on todays figures. Truly shocking and of course we all hope that the recent measures will soon kick in and the rate slow down so that it is not as bad as this. (Although who knows).

But the figures over the last two days have been terrible. They *should* surprise you and worry you. We went from 115 deaths on Thursday to 181 yesterday. A rise of +57%. I hoped this was a spurious one-off, not to be repeated. Then today we went to +260. An increase of +43% on the already alarming 181. To put it another way, the average daily increase since Thursday has been +50%!

115 + 50% = 173
173 + 50% = 260

That is shockingly bad and MUCH worse than projected.

Sorry but I don`t know where you`ve been hiding but I`ll repeat myself,it does NOT come as a shock" as we`ve been forewarned that the rise will happen steeply and then hopefully go downwards.You keep worrying and I`ll take the figures of those that know NOT as gospel but more realistic than your over inflated ones.
Stay calm and dont let the bastards grind you down (your numbers i`m on about) ;)

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Numbers of deaths per day has been multiplying by 10 roughly every 9 or 10 days. That means an average daily increase of 26% per day (assuming 10 days).

The impact of that, if continuing is, clearly awful. It would mean 2,600 people per day dying in 10 days time, based on todays figures. Truly shocking and of course we all hope that the recent measures will soon kick in and the rate slow down so that it is not as bad as this. (Although who knows).

I think we’ll be in the region of 700 deaths per day in 10 days, sadly. Italy had 250 deaths on 13th March, 15 days ago. They’re now at what, 900? We still have quite a bit to ride out before seeing any benefits from the lockdown. Utterly depressing numbers.

 

[KnaresboroughBlue]

There were fewer tests.

Maybe because fewer people needed testing? Hard to say. Less cases is good news though regardless.

 

[Mayor West]

Anyone got any new cases stats? Surely thats the one we should be concentrating on to see if we are beating this thing?

 

[Claytop]

You're looking at this too simplistically mate. Of course we expect the numbers to go up, no-one is questioning that. What you don't seem to be considering (and the point I was making) is how fast are they going up?

Numbers of deaths per day has been multiplying by 10 roughly every 9 or 10 days. That means an average daily increase of 26% per day (assuming 10 days).

The impact of that, if continuing is, clearly awful. It would mean 2,600 people per day dying in 10 days time, based on todays figures. Truly shocking and of course we all hope that the recent measures will soon kick in and the rate slow down so that it is not as bad as this. (Although who knows).

But the figures over the last two days have been terrible. They *should* surprise you and worry you. We went from 115 deaths on Thursday to 181 yesterday. A rise of +57%. I hoped this was a spurious one-off, not to be repeated. Then today we went to +260. An increase of +43% on the already alarming 181. To put it another way, the average daily increase since Thursday has been +50%!

115 + 50% = 173
173 + 50% = 260

That is shockingly bad and MUCH worse than projected.

BBC reporting it as a 34% increase on yesterday’s numbers. Not sure how they’re getting that number though.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Sorry but I don`t know where you`ve been hiding but I`ll repeat myself,it does NOT come as a shock" as we`ve been forewarned that the rise will happen steeply and then hopefully go downwards.You keep worrying and I`ll take the figures of those that know NOT as gospel but more realistic than your over inflated ones.
Stay calm and dont let the bastards grind you down (your numbers i`m on about) ;)

Fuck me mate, all I was saying was that yesterdays death figure and todays, are higher than expected and that I hope this is a blip.

This is a statement of fact. Sorry if it offends.

 

[doobyedoobye]

I know some and their stories are very different. Wards have been emptied and readied but not a mad influx of people. I'm guessing the London hospitals are having a more difficult time than in the North.

Macclesfield was seeing a significant increase in patients this morning.

 

[Claytop]

Anyone got any new cases stats? Surely thats the one we should be concentrating on to see if we are beating this thing?

Well there was a drop in positive cases but also less tests done. Whether that’s because there was less people to be tested I’m not sure as they’re still only doing hospitalised testing IIRC.

I think it will be an anomaly and positive cases will go back up tomorrow.