COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Cityfan]

For arguments sake lets say by Jan 10000 in Britain had the infection
15% need Hospital Treatment 1500
1% die 100

Is that going to be noticeable in Flu season?

The doubling time before lockdown was three days. If there were 10, 000 cases by January you'd have known about it well before February

 

[Chippy_boy]

For arguments sake lets say by Jan 10000 in Britain had the infection
15% need Hospital Treatment 1500
1% die 100

Is that going to be noticeable in Flu season?

But then why didn't the numbers explode in Feb? We saw a 100x increase in deaths between mid and end of March - in circa 2 weeks. That's what happens with exponential growth when numbers are doubling every three or four days, as they were.

So if we had 100 die in Jan, we'd have seen 10,000 dead by mid Feb and 100,000 by end of Feb (without a lockdown in Feb). i.e. there cannot have been 10,000 infected in Jan. Widespread infection in Jan is not possible.

 

[lastmanback]

Aer Lingus Dublin to London, yesterday:

Strange same picture earlier has it as flight Belfast to London.

 

[Tarzan41]

How the hell could this be possible? Was this virus circulating amongst the healthy population either with no symptoms or mild symptoms which were written off as just a bad cold or the flu? Deaths amongst the elderly or vulnerable written off as pneumonia or flu related? Why wasn’t there a massive number of cases showing up at hospitals? Unless the mortality rate is lower than we believe at present? This actually presents more questions than answers.

Sorry to post a link to the Mail but this article from 19th December surely can’t be a coincidence
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oint-UK-winter.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[grunge]

When did Britain start testing deaths for Covid?

Not sure off hand but that graph is just registered deaths. no cause attributed.

Its clear as day when the Covid deaths kicked in.

 

[robbieh]

Sorry to post a link to the Mail but this article from 19th December surely can’t be a coincidence
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oint-UK-winter.html?__twitter_impression=true

Australia had a huge bout last winter, their winter, and we were expecting a bad flu season

 

[Chippy_boy]

Sorry to post a link to the Mail but this article from 19th December surely can’t be a coincidence
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oint-UK-winter.html?__twitter_impression=true

Why can't it?

Of course it's a coincidence. Why are people clinging to this ludicrous idea that there was widespread infection in December? It's a ridiculous idea and i just cannot fathom why some people seem so desperate to cling to it? Is it because they imagine the whole thing is not as bad as it is, were we to be 6 months in already? I just don't get it. It wasn't here in the UK in large number in December or January, end of.

 

[grunge]

Why can't it?

Of course it's a coincidence. Why are people clinging to this ludicrous idea that there was widespread infection in December? It's a ridiculous idea and i just cannot fathom why some people seem so desperate to cling to it? Is it because they imagine the whole thing is not as bad as it is, were we to be 6 months in already? I just don't get it. It wasn't here in the UK in large number in December or January, end of.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

people need to get this....

 

[twosips]

Why can't it?

Of course it's a coincidence. Why are people clinging to this ludicrous idea that there was widespread infection in December? It's a ridiculous idea and i just cannot fathom why some people seem so desperate to cling to it? Is it because they imagine the whole thing is not as bad as it is, were we to be 6 months in already? I just don't get it. It wasn't here in the UK in large number in December or January, end of.

It's that entirely. People want to think it's not that bad, which I get, but all evidence completely goes against that theory. Sadly.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Why can't it?

Of course it's a coincidence. Why are people clinging to this ludicrous idea that there was widespread infection in December? It's a ridiculous idea and i just cannot fathom why some people seem so desperate to cling to it? Is it because they imagine the whole thing is not as bad as it is, were we to be 6 months in already? I just don't get it. It wasn't here in the UK in large number in December or January, end of.

so when we do excess deaths comparison then you accept that the excess might not all be due to Covid but coincidentally this bad flu season as well ?