COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Tim of the Oak said:
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Andy Burnham is pushing one set of stats from the London based CCMID - there are other surveys.
PHE takes the weighted average of around 6 different surveys based on the historical predicted v actual hospital admissions in each region for that survey. So the more accurate the subsequent regional hospital admissions total is the more weight is added to a constituant survey. The CCMID one clearly isn't that good.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Andy Burnham is pushing one set of stats from the London based CCMID - there are other surveys.
PHE takes the weighted average of around 6 different surveys based on the historical predicted v actual hospital admissions in each region for that survey. So the more accurate the subsequent regional hospital admissions total is the more weight is added to a constituant survey. The CCMID one clearly isn't that good.
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I like Andy but can't help but feel he is bringing politics into his posts regarding the pandemic. I don't think this is helpful and though you expect it from people on forums such as this, picking and choosing what to post to fit your narrative when in his position isn't helpful.
 
QUOTE (blueparrot)

Those R numbers for N.Ireland and Scotland make no sense to me with the figures both are posting for new infections, 14 today for Scotland and I'm sure one day last week N.Ireland had none.

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The R number is always a bit behind the curve. It there shows Wales as low and decreasing but Wales had 100 new cases yesterday. The first three figure total of any home nation bar England in a while.

Wales has a big problem. Not sure why. The ex miners with lung issues in the south is likely one factor. And older population.

But look at the rating of cases v population. Just as we do that for all health areas so we can compare towns in Greater Manchester and see why Oldham has a problem.

Such data are available for each nation.

The current numbers are: Northern Ireland 258.8 (that's below all places in GM). England 283.9 (also lower than GM which is above the average being a densely populated area), Scotland 290.1. Pretty similar to England. But Wales, despite having large open spaces in much of its middle, is 481.9. Only Oldham in the Greater Manchester area at 488.1 is higher and there are only a small number of places in all of England that are higher than the Welsh national figure.
 
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somapop said:


The T cells discussion is pretty positive (more so than anything else at the moment I think)...at least from his viewpoint.
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Yeah, it was the only positive part of the conversation on the thread which you could take away. But it's all just potential for now, and hope. The fact he's standing by his opinion of 100 days ago is extremely worrying even if its a hard dose of the truth.
 
One of my go to experts in the viral field (I've posted his thread a while back). Cuts through all the emotion and nonsense.
This is his latest tweet (but it links his previous thread below it). Up to the point where no one is sure whether it will be an endemic or eradicated (and puts a bit of cold water on the 'it's weakening' view points (which is mainly due to hope rather than anything else):

 
ayrshire_blue said:
Yeah, it was the only positive part of the conversation on the thread which you could take away. But it's all just potential for now, and hope. The fact he's standing by his opinion of 100 days ago is extremely worrying even if its a hard dose of the truth.
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It really is. Many (clearly) are under the impression it's both 'on the wane' and isn't actually that serious of a virus for the majority. Both partly true for perhaps not for the reasons many think. People just want this over and consigned to an 'awful fucking year'. But when you read the top scientist in this field not really sure which way it's going to head (and armchair scientists absolute in their belief there will be no second wave) it's quite frustrating.
So my opinion and most people I know if pretty worthless really. At the same time it's quite clear we're going to have to open up but with huge barriers in place until certainty over all this is definitive (post vaccine?).

Is that 'will covid19 change the world' thread still open? Wonder if viewpoints are different at this stage. I think most of us will all have 'lived through this' and hardened us all a little (which should normally deliver empathy).
In saying all that, it's incredibly important to remain positive otherwise we sink.
 
somapop said:
It really is. Many (clearly) are under the impression it's both 'on the wane' and isn't actually that serious of a virus for the majority. Both partly true for perhaps not for the reasons many think. People just want this over and consigned to an 'awful fucking year'. But when you read the top scientist in this field not really sure which way it's going to head (and armchair scientists absolute in their belief there will be no second wave) it's quite frustrating.
So my opinion and most people I know if pretty worthless really. At the same time it's quite clear we're going to have to open up but with huge barriers in place until certainty over all this is definitive (post vaccine?).

Is that 'will covid19 change the world' thread still open? Wonder if viewpoints are different at this stage. I think most of us will all have 'lived through this' and hardened us all a little (which should normally deliver empathy).
In saying all that, it's incredibly important to remain positive otherwise we sink.
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If it helps, there are scientists at the very top who think opposing views. I've seen people at Oxford Uni and Harvard discussing this in a more positive light. These people aren't any less intelligent. I'm not saying they're right, and he isn't, but its something to consider. We simply don't know yet is the most accurate appraisal. I'm clinging onto the fact that a person's likelihood of dying if they catch it today is a lot less than it was a few months ago. We're learning how to treat it better every single day.
 
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