COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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I think it'll have a bit of an impact. Just logic really. We were notably badly hit compared to some places and that must count for something. I personally do believe more people have been exposed to it than we realise. I've read and watched an awful lot of contrarian opinions on both sides and the one thing they all seem to agree on, on both the more optimistic or negative side, is that there is simply loads we don't know yet about immunity. No one really has a clue. There are an awful lot of exceptionally intelligent people though, literal professors at Oxford for example, who believe more have had it than antibody tests would suggest. These people are no less intelligent than the ones who share a more cautious view. Even those who are cautious wouldn't categorically say they're wrong either.

There are far too many stories about someone being extremely ill in one household, but for whatever reason their partner or family picks up absolutely nothing. They either don't get it or they do or they're asymptomatic. It simply doesn't add up. It's certainly not because they're locking their spouse in another room and staying away. It's a loved one's instinct to look after a sick partner or child. We know they looked after them. I would have. Or what of those elderly who have been absolutely surrounded by it in care homes, with comorbidities too, but still haven't gotten it? There has to be a part of the picture we're missing. Why are some people who are in such high contact with sick people experiencing no symptoms at all? I'm pretty convinced there is an element of immunity based on something we don't fully know yet. Could be it that the virus isn't quite as novel as they say it is? It does share something in common with many others for example? Could it be as simple as other vaccines for other viruses offer partial immunity? Could be it as simple as blood types? Or Vitamin D deficiency?

Whatever it is, I'm personally convinced that the idea that this is a truly novel virus and everyone will react to it in an identical way is just not correct. It clearly affects other differently, and we don't know why yet, or how many that is. I'm increasingly of the belief that many people have had it but we just don't know yet. I reckon doctors are significantly better at treating it now than compared to back in March. Your chances of surviving an infection now are vastly higher. They understand the virus so much better. They're not shocked by the blood clots now, they're not treating it just like a respiratory infection, they've got better therapeutics. PPE will finally be better for doctors, patients are getting into hospital earlier because we've dealt with that initial shock to the system.

Now, I'm not for one second saying abandon caution, cos I'm still incredibly unsure about going near my family etc. This is clearly a horrible, nasty virus - I think caution is always the best route to take, but I also feel there are far too many stories that simply don't add up, which imply a much bigger picture. I also think the prognosis is better now if you catch this. It's awful what we had to go through as a society to get to this point, but we're here anyway. I'm just glad we are now. Once again, I'm not downplaying this at all, just trying to see things from every possible angle. It's very tempting to hone in on the scarier stories, and I did an awful lot of that a couple of months ago, but i've tried recently to keep a much more open mind and I read all viewpoints, as long as they're from an intelligent, credible source. I'm not saying you don't do that of course, but just trying to explain my view and why I think there is a bit of hope.

It can be really consuming this, but life will go on. It's scary, and there may be some shite times ahead, but we will beat this. We've got good doctors, improving every single day, there is an unlimited amount of money being thrown at geniuses to solve this, and the measures, though slowly, are working. Importantly, infections and deaths are still going down. That's the key. There are signs for encouragement, and enough very plausible questions that suggest things might be a bit better than we hoped. Possibly not, but there's no harm in grabbing onto some positive signs, while also remaining cautious.
Great post.
 
For second week running weekly deaths below the 5 year average in all main settings.

In England & Wales 8979 week ending 26 June - 360 below previous week.

3.4% below the 5 year average.

815 fewer deaths in hospital than 5 yr avg,

103 fewer deaths in care homes than 5 yr avg.

606 deaths mentioned Covid - just 6.7% of deaths and lowest total in the past 13 weeks.

Total UK deaths week ending was 10267 - 295 below the 5 year average. 651 mentioning Covid.

Percentage of care home deaths decreased to 20.2% of total and those citing Covid in care homes dropped to 10.5%.

Covid deaths in week ending 26 June were 63.5% in hospital, 29.7% in care homes, 4.6% at home and 1.4% in hospices.
 
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I think it'll have a bit of an impact. Just logic really. We were notably badly hit compared to some places and that must count for something. I personally do believe more people have been exposed to it than we realise. I've read and watched an awful lot of contrarian opinions on both sides and the one thing they all seem to agree on, on both the more optimistic or negative side, is that there is simply loads we don't know yet about immunity. No one really has a clue. There are an awful lot of exceptionally intelligent people though, literal professors at Oxford for example, who believe more have had it than antibody tests would suggest. These people are no less intelligent than the ones who share a more cautious view. Even those who are cautious wouldn't categorically say they're wrong either.

There are far too many stories about someone being extremely ill in one household, but for whatever reason their partner or family picks up absolutely nothing. They either don't get it or they do or they're asymptomatic. It simply doesn't add up. It's certainly not because they're locking their spouse in another room and staying away. It's a loved one's instinct to look after a sick partner or child. We know they looked after them. I would have. Or what of those elderly who have been absolutely surrounded by it in care homes, with comorbidities too, but still haven't gotten it? There has to be a part of the picture we're missing. Why are some people who are in such high contact with sick people experiencing no symptoms at all? I'm pretty convinced there is an element of immunity based on something we don't fully know yet. Could be it that the virus isn't quite as novel as they say it is? It does share something in common with many others for example? Could it be as simple as other vaccines for other viruses offer partial immunity? Could be it as simple as blood types? Or Vitamin D deficiency?

Whatever it is, I'm personally convinced that the idea that this is a truly novel virus and everyone will react to it in an identical way is just not correct. It clearly affects other differently, and we don't know why yet, or how many that is. I'm increasingly of the belief that many people have had it but we just don't know yet. I reckon doctors are significantly better at treating it now than compared to back in March. Your chances of surviving an infection now are vastly higher. They understand the virus so much better. They're not shocked by the blood clots now, they're not treating it just like a respiratory infection, they've got better therapeutics. PPE will finally be better for doctors, patients are getting into hospital earlier because we've dealt with that initial shock to the system.

Now, I'm not for one second saying abandon caution, cos I'm still incredibly unsure about going near my family etc. This is clearly a horrible, nasty virus - I think caution is always the best route to take, but I also feel there are far too many stories that simply don't add up, which imply a much bigger picture. I also think the prognosis is better now if you catch this. It's awful what we had to go through as a society to get to this point, but we're here anyway. I'm just glad we are now. Once again, I'm not downplaying this at all, just trying to see things from every possible angle. It's very tempting to hone in on the scarier stories, and I did an awful lot of that a couple of months ago, but i've tried recently to keep a much more open mind and I read all viewpoints, as long as they're from an intelligent, credible source. I'm not saying you don't do that of course, but just trying to explain my view and why I think there is a bit of hope.

It can be really consuming this, but life will go on. It's scary, and there may be some shite times ahead, but we will beat this. We've got good doctors, improving every single day, there is an unlimited amount of money being thrown at geniuses to solve this, and the measures, though slowly, are working. Importantly, infections and deaths are still going down. That's the key. There are signs for encouragement, and enough very plausible questions that suggest things might be a bit better than we hoped. Possibly not, but there's no harm in grabbing onto some positive signs, while also remaining cautious.

A good post mate, and I don't necessarily disagree with any of it. However, I don't see myself as someone who only posts the negative views or only listens to or reads the negative stories out there. I've got a fairly open mind on the subject too and hold an interest and a hope in the news regarding T cells and all the rest of it.

In saying all of that, and taking into account your post, I still cannot imagine that the difference in infection rates between the UK and Australia are so so vast that it's plausible for Melbourne or Israel to have another major peak and for us to be able to pretty much brush it off. I can't read that news today and think anything other than us following in the same footsteps soon, whether that's the country as a whole or manchester, Glasgow, Scotland, Birmingham in isolation or wherever else.

If suggesting that Melbourne and Israel are only going through this because of their lack of infections in the first place and at the same time admitting that we were hit hard in that regard, then would you also consider opening up completely and getting football fans, gigs, everyone packed into the tube etc at this stage? I know I wouldn't.
 
Disagree. He was refering to the care home companies themselves - and they DO have a lot to answer for.
When everyone became aware of the issues in care homes at the start of May 38% of English care homes had Covid-19 cases. Since then it has risen to 58% and the average care home with one infection has had 20% of it's residents become ill.
Here's stats on the numbers last week.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...eaths-rate-england-wales-latest-a9599426.html
What the fuck have care homes been doing? Or should I say, not been doing from May to July? Regular tests were offered to all staff and residents by PHE.
Small privately run homes seem to have avoided the carnage for the most part with Covid-19 cases limited when they occurred
It seems to me that the big providers just welcomed Covid-19 in and spread it around. A bit like the Death Race 2000 hospital day.
So yes they do have a lot to answer for.

That might have been Johnson’s intention but he was scattergun in his criticism. His comments were bound to incense the social care workforce as well as business owners, because it comes down to the quality of care and individual’s safety.

There is clearly variation of standards of care homes (which inevitable with around 11,300 homes and about 90% of them being in the independent sector) including examples on the news today of places where staff / managers have lived on site for 3 to 4 months to protect the residents and going without seeing their families.

I think the issues are so complex that it will need a thorough inquiry to understand all the mistakes and lessons to be learnt, at all levels. The business models seem to make themselves vulnerable to the virus with care homes often needing to offer step down care for Vulnerable hospital patients to make ends meet. We (on this thread)!have discussed the PPE and testing problems on here before as well as the increased vulnerability of residents.
 
I think it'll have a bit of an impact. Just logic really. We were notably badly hit compared to some places and that must count for something. I personally do believe more people have been exposed to it than we realise. I've read and watched an awful lot of contrarian opinions on both sides and the one thing they all seem to agree on, on both the more optimistic or negative side, is that there is simply loads we don't know yet about immunity. No one really has a clue. There are an awful lot of exceptionally intelligent people though, literal professors at Oxford for example, who believe more have had it than antibody tests would suggest. These people are no less intelligent than the ones who share a more cautious view. Even those who are cautious wouldn't categorically say they're wrong either.

There are far too many stories about someone being extremely ill in one household, but for whatever reason their partner or family picks up absolutely nothing. They either don't get it or they do or they're asymptomatic. It simply doesn't add up. It's certainly not because they're locking their spouse in another room and staying away. It's a loved one's instinct to look after a sick partner or child. We know they looked after them. I would have. Or what of those elderly who have been absolutely surrounded by it in care homes, with comorbidities too, but still haven't gotten it? There has to be a part of the picture we're missing. Why are some people who are in such high contact with sick people experiencing no symptoms at all? I'm pretty convinced there is an element of immunity based on something we don't fully know yet. Could be it that the virus isn't quite as novel as they say it is? It does share something in common with many others for example? Could it be as simple as other vaccines for other viruses offer partial immunity? Could be it as simple as blood types? Or Vitamin D deficiency?

Whatever it is, I'm personally convinced that the idea that this is a truly novel virus and everyone will react to it in an identical way is just not correct. It clearly affects other differently, and we don't know why yet, or how many that is. I'm increasingly of the belief that many people have had it but we just don't know yet. I reckon doctors are significantly better at treating it now than compared to back in March. Your chances of surviving an infection now are vastly higher. They understand the virus so much better. They're not shocked by the blood clots now, they're not treating it just like a respiratory infection, they've got better therapeutics. PPE will finally be better for doctors, patients are getting into hospital earlier because we've dealt with that initial shock to the system.

Now, I'm not for one second saying abandon caution, cos I'm still incredibly unsure about going near my family etc. This is clearly a horrible, nasty virus - I think caution is always the best route to take, but I also feel there are far too many stories that simply don't add up, which imply a much bigger picture. I also think the prognosis is better now if you catch this. It's awful what we had to go through as a society to get to this point, but we're here anyway. I'm just glad we are now. Once again, I'm not downplaying this at all, just trying to see things from every possible angle. It's very tempting to hone in on the scarier stories, and I did an awful lot of that a couple of months ago, but i've tried recently to keep a much more open mind and I read all viewpoints, as long as they're from an intelligent, credible source. I'm not saying you don't do that of course, but just trying to explain my view and why I think there is a bit of hope.

It can be really consuming this, but life will go on. It's scary, and there may be some shite times ahead, but we will beat this. We've got good doctors, improving every single day, there is an unlimited amount of money being thrown at geniuses to solve this, and the measures, though slowly, are working. Importantly, infections and deaths are still going down. That's the key. There are signs for encouragement, and enough very plausible questions that suggest things might be a bit better than we hoped. Possibly not, but there's no harm in grabbing onto some positive signs, while also remaining cautious.

Did you see the Medium article (by an immunologist) posted yesterday?
 
Welsh government say no evidence that the two factory outbreaks in Llangefni and Wrexham - which between them brought 507 cases from workers and their close family - has spread to the wider community as testing over past week locally has seen no rises there outside those directly linked to the plants.
 
Disagree. He was refering to the care home companies themselves - and they DO have a lot to answer for.
When everyone became aware of the issues in care homes at the start of May 38% of English care homes had Covid-19 cases. Since then it has risen to 58% and the average care home with one infection has had 20% of it's residents become ill.
Here's stats on the numbers last week.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...eaths-rate-england-wales-latest-a9599426.html
What the fuck have care homes been doing? Or should I say, not been doing from May to July? Regular tests were offered to all staff and residents by PHE.
Small privately run homes seem to have avoided the carnage for the most part with Covid-19 cases limited when they occurred
It seems to me that the big providers just welcomed Covid-19 in and spread it around. A bit like the Death Race 2000 hospital day.
So yes they do have a lot to answer for.

Think you are over a month out in your dating there. I posted a link in this thread to the situation in Wolfsburg care homes on April 4th, and a care home in Glasgow had already been identified as having 13 cases. Across Europe, in the weeks prior there had already been problems in care homes in France, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, which were all reported in the UK media, so there was adequate warning for care homes and governments.
 
Welsh government meeting this afternoon to improve speed of getting test results based on these outbreaks in factories, At present only 49.4% are being returned within 24 hours and 74.4% within 2 days. They need more tests to be back within 24 hours for contact tracing to work properly
 
First day of beer gardens opening up here and some of Glasgows finest showing the way regarding socially distanced punch ups.

I hear someone called someone else's pint a poof.

More info as it emerges.

 
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