COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

This is of course the highest new case number recorded in months and a whopping 50% up on yesterday.

 

[Healdplace]

That is a UK rise from 0.75% last week to 0.95% this week.

And a rise in England fron 0.95% last week to 1.05% this week.

So it is a rise and not just the added number of tests that is to blame for this rise - though it mitigates the rise somewhat it is true.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard - you can hear the sound of records smashing everywhere.

London 210 - up from 157 to new high.

Midlands 205 -doubling from 108 to by some distance a new high.

Yorks 197 - from 113 to yet again easily a new high.


And North West rises from 191 to 298 - which although scarily up and the highest in a week was beaten once by a 311 and maybe twice (unsure due to the double date reporting of near 600 numbers we had when the government web site last blew a fuse some days back).

Either way the consequences for the GM scoreboard are worrying.

 

[Healdplace]

The GM scoreboard is as expected bad but there are some numbers that are worse than others and one extraordinarily good in the circumstances.

However, the total for the region is 179 - that is double yesterdays 97 and well up on last week's 155 which was the highest number the region has had in the past two weeks (probably three weeks owing to the double figure dates being unclear).

Up to now. So 179 out of the 298 NW cases were from GM.

Do not think an easing of restrictionswill be imminent - though it could be worse and one burough in particular will be screaming at Andy Burnham along the lines of Get me out of here!

 

[worsleyweb]

This is of course the highest new case number recorded in months and a whopping 50% up on yesterday.

Thanks for all your updates. You clearly follow things in great detail. Interested to know what you think of the theory that it could be weakening as less percentage of deaths as more cases seem to be occurring? Is a number of people getting it potentially a positive (obviously the deaths are tragic) as ultimately we have to obtain immunity via a vaccine or natural antibodies?

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:m

Bolton 11 (up from 7). 283 in month. 57 past week. 18 over 2 days (was 20). Pop score 782.

Bury 8 (up from 6). 217 in month. 62 past week. 14 over 2 days (was 14). Pop score 816.

Manchester 41 (up from 27 to one of highest scores in lockdown but not quite worst). 960 in month. 243 past week. 68 over 2 days (was 75). Pop score 754 (one of the biggest jumps in the day).

Oldham 35 (up from 10 - more than tripling back to the worst levels from when the restrictions started). 765 in month. 131 past week. 45 over 2 days (was 33). Pop score 1197 - biggest GM rise in the day and 1200 club awaits to join Leicester and Blackburn tomorrow.

Rochdale 32 (doubling from 17 - as you can see Oldham/Manchester/Rochdale account for 108 - a huge chunk of todays GM number and more than a third of the entire North West). 367 in month.Rochdale was doing well but is starting to shift. 91 past week. 49 over 2 days (was 28 - as you see a big uptick). Pop score 994 (a ten point jump and Rochdale will be in the unenviable tiny club of 1000 and above tomorrow by the looks of it - joining Leicester, Bradford, Blackburn and Oldham).

Salford 18 (up from 10 to what is actually the highest Salford number post restrctions). 325 in month. 67 past week, 28 over 2 days (was 16). Pop Score 680 - looks as if it will not recaoture that top spot here at this rate.

Stockport 3 (down from 6 - amazingly low given the national picture today - 11 straight single figure days here now - Elise will be on the phone to Andy pressing to join Wigan tomorrow I suspect). 251 in month. 34 past week (GM lowest). 9 over 2 day (was 9). Pop score 670 - ten point lead as best in GM now. Could all go qring tomorrow of course, Sorry Elise blame me if it does!

Tameside 10 (up from 5). 289 in month. 71 past week. 15 over 2 days (was 15). Pop score 830.

Trafford 15 (big jump from 6 - shows it can happen quicklywith track & trace). 240 in month. 60 past week. 21 over 2 days (was 17). Pop score 691 - fell way behind in the Pop Score race.

Wigan 6 (up from 3). Single figures for two weeks now so seems in control, 39 past week, Still might soon catch Stockport for lowest cases in past week - but not today. 9 over 2 days (was 8). Pop Score. 701. Left the 600 club leaving just Stockport, Salford and (for a few days at least) Trafford.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks for all your updates. You clearly follow things in great detail. Interested to know what you think of the theory that it could be weakening as less percentage of deaths as more cases seem to be occurring? Is a number of people getting it potentially a positive (obviously the deaths are tragic) as ultimately we have to obtain immunity via a vaccine or natural antibodies?

I have posted a few times on this over past week or two here. I think there are 3 or 4 possibilities and all of them may play a part. But I am not a scientist - though I have some training - just someone who can write down numbers.

 

[Healdplace]

Other watch towns:

Blackburn just 7 - very low considering. Was 21 yesterday. Pop score 1205.

Bradford 53 - double yesterdays 25. Pop score 1129.

Leicester 26 - up from last two days with 11 and 12 but still comparatively low. Enough to become the first member of the 1600 club at 1601. A measure of how badly hit Leicester has been across the whole pandemic. Nearly twice as badly as many of the GM buroughs. Leicester's numbers grew AFTER mid April when everyone else;s fell - despite the national lockdown - and only slowly has fallen since the local lockdown was started in June.

Pendle also rose a lot from 8 to 20. Its Pop Score rise by 17 today to 943 was biggest leap in the UK.

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data

Patients in N Ireland 15 (-2) Wales 48 (same) Scotland 257 (+8) England 449 (+ 7)

Total 769.A rise of 13 on the day.

Ventilator patients N Ireland 1 (same) Wales 6 (up 2), Scotland 2 (same) England 62 (up 7).

So that is 71 - 9 up in one day - the most in some time.

The bad numbers are starting to become more frequent in areas like this now.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional data for England hospitals.

East patients fell from 35 to 27 Ventilators stay at 5

South East patients rose from 37 to 38 Ventilators stay at 6

South West patients fell from 16 to 14 Ventilators stay at 2.

London patients rose from 74 to 77 Ventilators stay at 16.

Midlands patients rose from 124 to 126 Ventilators rose from 7 to 10.

Yorks & NE patients rose from 79 to 82 Ventilators rose from 7 to 9.

And

North West parientsrose from 77 to 85 Ventilators rose from 12 to 14.