COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Blue Llama]

We need to crack on and get back to work etc whilst being careful. If we dont get the economy up n running and get spending then the financial shit storm That comes will be a fucking drama

I don't disagree with that what I do object to is the comment that those of us who are showing caution are making a drama out of the situation. Words are powerful use them wisely.

 

[Tommy_Catons_Perm]

Bloke I know who lives in Crewe was sent home from work on Tuesday morning and told to get a test, rang up and was told nearest test was London, he tried again on the Wednesday and was told Telford or Oldham. He finally managed to get a test today in Newcastle under Lyme.
Why aren't these test readily and easily available?

Test are readily available to the professional footballers. Football really is more important than the matter of life and death.

 

[bluejon]

You won't win mate

I'm starting to realise that. I didn't come here for a row either. Straight up, the numerical analysis that's being presented on the testing data is complete garbage and considering this is what I do, thought I'd make a couple of comments. When I started to question what's being reported, kept my gob shut for a while at work as didn't want to appear like a crank, but when I finally got the courage to ask one of the senior researchers (I'm only 3 years into the job) if I was talking out my arse it turned they were on exactly the same page.

Here you go... The imperial college model that everything was based on at the beginning is absolute bollocks. Now at the time, they couldn't have known that, it was a new disease and I have zero doubt they were trying to get it right, but my boss got hold of the code they used and he couldn't believe it. Fifty thousands lines of non-modular code, all written as one single script. For non-coders, that means it is essentially impossible to check that code for bugs, and in 50k lines code there will be bugs in the maths. So fair enough, they didn't get it right, but the way they built the model means it should never have been considered in the first place.

 

[lancs blue]

Fifty thousands lines of non-modular code, all written as one single script.

Fucking hell, I once had to sort out 3,000 lines of unstructured non-modular C code, that was bad enough.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I'm starting to realise that. I didn't come here for a row either. Straight up, the numerical analysis that's being presented on the testing data is complete garbage and considering this is what I do, thought I'd make a couple of comments. When I started to question what's being reported, kept my gob shut for a while at work as didn't want to appear like a crank, but when I finally got the courage to ask one of the senior researchers (I'm only 3 years into the job) if I was talking out my arse it turned they were on exactly the same page.

Here you go... The imperial college model that everything was based on at the beginning is absolute bollocks. Now at the time, they couldn't have known that, it was a new disease and I have zero doubt they were trying to get it right, but my boss got hold of the code they used and he couldn't believe it. Fifty thousands lines of non-modular code, all written as one single script. For non-coders, that means it is essentially impossible to check that code for bugs, and in 50k lines code there will be bugs in the maths. So fair enough, they didn't get it right, but the way they built the model means it should never have been considered in the first place.

They've maybe used a fucked up model however their results aren't actually that far off what they predicted in March.

 

[bluejon]

They've maybe used a fucked up model however their results aren't actually that far off what they predicted in March.

So I went to go and check the numbers from the model, and it was 500k dead with no action, 260k dead with a half arsed lockdown and 20k dead over two years with full lockdown. We've been much closer to half arsed lockdown here. We believe their model massively overestimated the number who would die. Now better to err on the side of caution, yes, but they are still using that model and it's wrong. It hasn't modelled what has happened well at all.

Regardless of this, when I was googling to double check the figures I came across this, which says exactly what I said above, but from the private sector. Unfortunately though it's in the daily mail, so sorry about that.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...essor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

its pretty obvious that we are at the start of the second wave of this virus and France and Spain are well into it. The good news is the virus isnt killing anywhere near as many people. Infact its now killing hardly anyone. So if thats the future maybe we can afford the risk and return to normality and just live with the thing. Even if we carry on as we are now without another lockdown the economy will be in ruins in a few short months. Large sectors are failing.

 

[True_Blue69]

I'm starting to realise that. I didn't come here for a row either. Straight up, the numerical analysis that's being presented on the testing data is complete garbage and considering this is what I do, thought I'd make a couple of comments. When I started to question what's being reported, kept my gob shut for a while at work as didn't want to appear like a crank, but when I finally got the courage to ask one of the senior researchers (I'm only 3 years into the job) if I was talking out my arse it turned they were on exactly the same page.

Here you go... The imperial college model that everything was based on at the beginning is absolute bollocks. Now at the time, they couldn't have known that, it was a new disease and I have zero doubt they were trying to get it right, but my boss got hold of the code they used and he couldn't believe it. Fifty thousands lines of non-modular code, all written as one single script. For non-coders, that means it is essentially impossible to check that code for bugs, and in 50k lines code there will be bugs in the maths. So fair enough, they didn't get it right, but the way they built the model means it should never have been considered in the first place.

Don’t let them grind you down into not posting. Good to have someone who is genuinely knowledgeable and working with similarly skilled people posting their opinions.

 

[cleavers]

its pretty obvious that we are at the start of the second wave of this virus and France and Spain are well into it. The good news is the virus isnt killing anywhere near as many people. Infact its now killing hardly anyone. So if thats the future maybe we can afford the risk and return to normality and just live with the thing. Even if we carry on as we are now without another lockdown the economy will be in ruins in a few short months. Large sectors are failing.

It will be 3-5 weeks before we know how many people its "killing", just as it was at the end of March.

 

[kaz7]

When did i say i haven't worn a mask? I think you just like telling people what to do. And my head is not in the sand Kaz7, i do this for a living. You're the kind who would tell a pilot they don't know how to fly a plane properly.

You are not an expert in infectious disease , you would rather believe you workmates,that is up to you but you are wrong
I try and hammer home the rules because I don't want a single other person to go through what I have
All the numbers are going up but people are moaning,if you don't stick to new rules we will have full lockdown and nobody wants that