blueparrot
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Don't think that's right, sure during the first peak Scotland was well above 7% of tests done positive.
COVID-19 — Coronavirus
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Healdplace
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Northern Ireland data:
0 deaths and 87 cases at 1.4% of tests. Rolling weekly average 553 (down from 554).
Last week it was 0 deaths and 106 cases at 1.5% of tests.
0 deaths and 87 cases at 1.4% of tests. Rolling weekly average 553 (down from 554).
Last week it was 0 deaths and 106 cases at 1.5% of tests.
Healdplace
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Yes, sorry, of course that will be true. I am comparing only across the 'second wave' over recent weeks when the UK testing has been ramped up to far higher levels than it was back then as comparisons with Mar/Apr on tests/cases are meaningless because of the huge disparity. The numbers right now are relatively compatible with one another.
Its the same with case numbers - there likely were higher numbers in March/April for some places but its not really possible to track that so all I say is really tracking the data since it started rising again this summer/autumn.
The England hospital data is different as thanks to the long lamented Gelson's Dad, this thread had good data on that from the early days. It was because of his departure from here I started looking for and giving here the data.
kaz7
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Typical boris,you are going to lockdown but have a weekend on the piss first,extraordinary way to manage this ,there is always a lag on the figures so if they are bad now then they will be a lot worse next week,i am sorry to pick on the young but they don't think they will get I'll so sod the rest of us
Anyone who has seen my posts on here probably knows that I'm very much a firm believer in taking this whole thing very, very seriously. I think it's a nasty, horrible disease. I'm no denier. However, I really can't deny that my view has started to shift recently as the deaths have plummeted. It's been really encouraging to see it going down. Cases are going up, yep, and there has been a slight uptick in hospitalisations, but it's still absolutely marginal from where we were months ago, and it's so low that if it arrived now we'd not even notice largely. I can't help but feel that if the deaths don't start to rise a fair bit, we should consider trying to get back to normal a little where possible. The constant changing of rules is ridiculously damaging for so many people.
We're averaging less than ten deaths a day, sometimes less than five, and while any death is of course really, really tragic, this is absolutely nothing compared to the 1,000 days back around the peak, and just general mortality rates in the UK. Over a thousand die every day in the UK even without a pandemic. I don't think we can logically carry on locking large parts of the country down IF, and this is the all important if, deaths are averaging low still. Looking around other European countries, they're having record levels of cases, but considerably less than 100 deaths a day still. Even lower in some countries...and that's actually good news! I know it's because it's mainly hitting young people too, but I think there's an element of it being because people aren't getting strong viral loads (due to social distancing/hygiene etc), and thats also a good thing. Plus the increasingly better treatments etc. It's getting about, but hardly any are getting ill or dying. Surely that's hugely positive.
I fully want everyone to be safe and sensible and maintain hygiene and social distancing rules, but I do get concerned about lives being destroyed, businesses being ruined, rising poverty due to constant changes in rules etc etc - especially if the deaths don't start to upturn notably. We shouldn't be tightening up unless we're certain of a potential return to the dark days. Say we went from 5 deaths a day to 25 odd in the UK, and no higher, then I personally don't believe that isn't a justification to panic. I can't help but feel that so many young people are being robbed of their lives, and so many older are just withering in a room waiting to die locked away too. I feel we owe it to ourselves as a society to try and react to what is happening sensibly. If there are no signs of deaths going up in a couple of weeks, despite the huge increase in cases recently, I don't think there is any reasonable justification for it to carry on. If they do go up notably, of course, take measures...but only notably. There are currently no signs that we'll get anywhere near the awful state that we were in March and April, and that's a very good thing.
I suspect some will disagree with me, but I always try and be rational and logical where possible. I personally believe that if we can live with it at low numbers, then life should go on to an extent. I don't think this is unreasonable :)
EDIT - just want to say that I'm so sorry that people have really struggled with this and it's been an awful virus. I've lost someone to this personally too, so this isn't coming from a place of self interest at all.
We're averaging less than ten deaths a day, sometimes less than five, and while any death is of course really, really tragic, this is absolutely nothing compared to the 1,000 days back around the peak, and just general mortality rates in the UK. Over a thousand die every day in the UK even without a pandemic. I don't think we can logically carry on locking large parts of the country down IF, and this is the all important if, deaths are averaging low still. Looking around other European countries, they're having record levels of cases, but considerably less than 100 deaths a day still. Even lower in some countries...and that's actually good news! I know it's because it's mainly hitting young people too, but I think there's an element of it being because people aren't getting strong viral loads (due to social distancing/hygiene etc), and thats also a good thing. Plus the increasingly better treatments etc. It's getting about, but hardly any are getting ill or dying. Surely that's hugely positive.
I fully want everyone to be safe and sensible and maintain hygiene and social distancing rules, but I do get concerned about lives being destroyed, businesses being ruined, rising poverty due to constant changes in rules etc etc - especially if the deaths don't start to upturn notably. We shouldn't be tightening up unless we're certain of a potential return to the dark days. Say we went from 5 deaths a day to 25 odd in the UK, and no higher, then I personally don't believe that isn't a justification to panic. I can't help but feel that so many young people are being robbed of their lives, and so many older are just withering in a room waiting to die locked away too. I feel we owe it to ourselves as a society to try and react to what is happening sensibly. If there are no signs of deaths going up in a couple of weeks, despite the huge increase in cases recently, I don't think there is any reasonable justification for it to carry on. If they do go up notably, of course, take measures...but only notably. There are currently no signs that we'll get anywhere near the awful state that we were in March and April, and that's a very good thing.
I suspect some will disagree with me, but I always try and be rational and logical where possible. I personally believe that if we can live with it at low numbers, then life should go on to an extent. I don't think this is unreasonable :)
EDIT - just want to say that I'm so sorry that people have really struggled with this and it's been an awful virus. I've lost someone to this personally too, so this isn't coming from a place of self interest at all.
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Blue Potato
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Sunday Times are today reporting that the number of people being tested per day - the metric that became ‘unavailable’ in the old dashboard for daily figures - was around 62k per day at the start of this month:
www.thetimes.co.uk
Leaked figures reveal scale of coronavirus test shortage
The government’s “world-beating” testing programme has a backlog of 185,000 swabs and is so overstretched that it is sending tests to laboratories in Italy and
www.thetimes.co.uk
Healdplace
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England hospital data:
5 deaths - all in the last 48 hours. None from the NW - though that is not unusual that they underreport in this region over the weekend. 3 of the 5 were from the MIdlands.
This is up from 3 on the previous 2 Sundays but at this low level I would not read a great deal into that.
Sunday data is often underreported though it should be recalled as weekend data recording is less than in weekdays. But in the past month or two that difference has been minimal as hospital deaths are so low on most days now. And one or two up or down is a big fraction of the number so looks worse or better than it might be.
5 deaths - all in the last 48 hours. None from the NW - though that is not unusual that they underreport in this region over the weekend. 3 of the 5 were from the MIdlands.
This is up from 3 on the previous 2 Sundays but at this low level I would not read a great deal into that.
Sunday data is often underreported though it should be recalled as weekend data recording is less than in weekdays. But in the past month or two that difference has been minimal as hospital deaths are so low on most days now. And one or two up or down is a big fraction of the number so looks worse or better than it might be.
Healdplace
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Such as it is the data now reads for England hospitals:
12 Sep adds 2 = 2 after one day.
11 Sep adds 3 = 4 after two days.
10 Sep adds 0 = 6 after three days.
9 Sep adds 0 = 5 after four days.
And 8 Sep adds 0 = 10 after five days. So the single figure death run does end after 27 consecutive days but at just 10.
Less than half of those 27 days have added a single death since they were reported back to 11 August when it started.
And only 2 of the 27 have gone above 9 in that 4 weeks. The highest of the 2 having only reached 11.
So not a single date in the past 4 weeks in an England hospital has seen more than 11 Covid deaths and the vast majority have been 9 or below.
Indeed the average deaths per day in England hospitals over the past four weeks has been under 7.
So no evidence - happily - so far - of a rise in death numbers via the new wave of cases. Though that is, as we know, the last figure to change given the time involved for any patients to get to that stage.
It might change but the longer this goes on then no big rise in deaths looks to be tied to the rising case numbers.
Though that will be impacted a lot by the age profile of the testing which is showing signs of going up with more over 65s testing positive. Early diagnosis and treatment will still result in lower deaths for that group but may well show an uptick in deaths in coming weeks. Just hopefully not a big one.
12 Sep adds 2 = 2 after one day.
11 Sep adds 3 = 4 after two days.
10 Sep adds 0 = 6 after three days.
9 Sep adds 0 = 5 after four days.
And 8 Sep adds 0 = 10 after five days. So the single figure death run does end after 27 consecutive days but at just 10.
Less than half of those 27 days have added a single death since they were reported back to 11 August when it started.
And only 2 of the 27 have gone above 9 in that 4 weeks. The highest of the 2 having only reached 11.
So not a single date in the past 4 weeks in an England hospital has seen more than 11 Covid deaths and the vast majority have been 9 or below.
Indeed the average deaths per day in England hospitals over the past four weeks has been under 7.
So no evidence - happily - so far - of a rise in death numbers via the new wave of cases. Though that is, as we know, the last figure to change given the time involved for any patients to get to that stage.
It might change but the longer this goes on then no big rise in deaths looks to be tied to the rising case numbers.
Though that will be impacted a lot by the age profile of the testing which is showing signs of going up with more over 65s testing positive. Early diagnosis and treatment will still result in lower deaths for that group but may well show an uptick in deaths in coming weeks. Just hopefully not a big one.
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kaz7
Well-Known Member
Sunday Times are today reporting that the number of people being tested per day - the metric that became ‘unavailable’ in the old dashboard for daily figures - was around 62k per day at the start of this month:
Leaked figures reveal scale of coronavirus test shortage
The government’s “world-beating” testing programme has a backlog of 185,000 swabs and is so overstretched that it is sending tests to laboratories in Italy and
What a surprise... All those labs they turned down are coming home to roost,get every lab,big and small on the case ,we can't open up without tests being readily available and quickly,winter is coming
Healdplace
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Ayrshire will hopefully provide an age profile of the 244 Scottish cases here later. The N Ireland one will likely be available tomorrow.
Last week for comparison just 8 of the 208 were over 65. So under 4%. This has been creeping upwards as the spread reaches care homes via younger carers unaware they are ill. As the mass testing in care homes seems not to be happening as it ought to be. This is where the next wave of deaths are sadly most likely to occur unseen via transmission from young and relatively unaffected to old and vulnerable.
Last week for comparison just 8 of the 208 were over 65. So under 4%. This has been creeping upwards as the spread reaches care homes via younger carers unaware they are ill. As the mass testing in care homes seems not to be happening as it ought to be. This is where the next wave of deaths are sadly most likely to occur unseen via transmission from young and relatively unaffected to old and vulnerable.
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