COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SebastianBlue]

Looks like the tweet has been deleted.

stop talking sense it was banned on bluemoon years ago.

 

[grunge]

To be fair, he has generally been careful, mate.

I am fairly sure @grunge was referring to the common median estimated severe case rate across all current and future cases that is being quoted by most health organisations. The actual estimated projections vary quite a bit and could very well be as low as 10% or as high as 25%, depending on the model and many, many factors that I reference in an early post.

Although the Worldmeter site is very helpful to get a general sense of how things are progressing, it doesn’t necessarily help with projections in the way continual epidemiological modelling will, which is what most of the WHO and CDC guidance is based on (since they need to make best guesses of what is to come based on what is now happening to actually respond to the outbreak).

Something I can say with certainty, as a data scientist that analyses very large universes of data daily, is that the current very limited and inherently inaccurate data collection makes meaningful estimation very difficult and is one of the reasons the reputable global health entities are erring on the side of caution. And why I am more than happy they are.

Yep, I was using Worldmeter, Dr Campbell and the WHO as sources.

would be interesting to see the links for under 3% outside of China comments.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

To be fair, he has generally been careful, mate.

I am fairly sure @grunge was referring to the common median estimated severe case rate across all current and future cases that is being quoted by most health organisations. The actual estimated projections vary quite a bit and could very well be as low as 10% or as high as 25%, depending on the model and many, many factors that I reference in an early post.

Although the Worldmeter site is very helpful to get a general sense of how things are progressing, it doesn’t necessarily help with projections in the way continual epidemiological modelling will, which is what most of the WHO and CDC guidance is based on (since they need to make best guesses of what is to come based on what is now happening to actually respond to the outbreak).

Something I can say with certainty, as a data scientist that analyses very large universe of data daily, is that the current very limited and inherently inaccurate data collection makes meaningful estimation very difficult and is one of the reasons the reputable global health entities are erring on the side of caution. And why I am more than happy they are.

I agree and didn't mean to accuse @grunge , perhaps my dipping in and out of this thread isn't helping my understanding of some of the posts. In my opinion, and in some of the media, there's a clear discrepancy in case statistics between Wuhan and the rest of the world which looks like it is skewing overall actual event data. Hopefully the early stats out of the rest of the world regarding severity and mortality do not begin to get anywhere near to those in Wuhan and we can look back in relief.

 

[cibaman]

I agree and didn't mean to accuse @grunge , perhaps my dipping in and out of this thread isn't helping my understanding of some of the posts. In my opinion, and in some of the media, there's a clear discrepancy in case statistics between Wuhan and the rest of the world which looks like it is skewing overall actual event data. Hopefully the early stats out of the rest of the world regarding severity and mortality do not begin to get anywhere near to those in Wuhan and we can look back in relief.

I tend to look at the stats for Italy as being most indicative as to how the virus would affect the UK. If they are to be believed it doesn’t seem to be spreading that fast. I would have expected more serious outbreaks in the big cities by now.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Yep, I was using Worldmeter, Dr Campbell and the WHO as sources.

would be interesting to see the links for under 3% outside of China comments.

Yes, it needs clarification.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

As at 10:58:
Total active cases worldwide = 40,759 (China = 29,825; ROW = 10,934)
Total currently serious/critical = 7,098 (China = 6,806; ROW = 292)

%serious/critical worldwide = 17.4% (7,098 / 40,759)
%serious/critical China = 22.8% (6,806 / 29,825)
%serious/critical ROW = 2.7% (292 / 10,934)

Of course lots could happen to change this.

 

[grunge]

Todays update.



Notes from it: 70% alchol minimum in handwashes to kill it.

 

[Marvin]

Need to take a best fit to that data to smooth. The new cases we see now are presumably those resulting from infection prior to isolation measures in Korea and Italy. I think this is going to follow the Chinese path. It should really as it's the same pathogen with the same human response.

It's hard to believe that sanctions remain in force against Iran during a humanitarian crisis. Actually it isn't hard to believe.

I am very interested in the variation of the Italian new cases. What happens there will be a good guide to how it's going to go in Western Europe.

A major mystery is the low number of cases in Africa. Are they just not noticing the infection because it is being lost against all the other problems? Lots of questions. Not many answers at the moment, just lots of speculation.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I agree and didn't mean to accuse @grunge , perhaps my dipping in and out of this thread isn't helping my understanding of some of the posts. In my opinion, and in some of the media, there's a clear discrepancy in case statistics between Wuhan and the rest of the world which looks like it is skewing overall actual event data. Hopefully the early stats out of the rest of the world regarding severity and mortality do not begin to get anywhere near to those in Wuhan and we can look back in relief.

It is definitely a fast moving thread, in keeping with the situation itself. And I agree that looking at metrics excluding the Chinese centroid is helpful for our understanding of how the outbreak is progressing. That is especially the case as the conditions there were/are very different to our own and they were able to take actions to slow transmission that we will just never feasibly be able to undertake (so it’s not especially helpful to use as a case study for us specifically). That’s not to say we should ignore their plight, or not learn from their actions — the Chinese people are going through a truly harrowing ordeal in large part for the benefit of the world right now, and that really should not be forgotten.

I certainly hope their and our subsequent efforts do allow us to look back in relief, especially as I am among those in the high-risk category, so obviously want this to have as little impact as is now possible.

 

[grunge]

A major mystery is the low number of cases in Africa. Are they just not noticing the infection because it is being lost against all the other problems? Lots of questions. Not many answers at the moment, just lots of speculation.

Dr Campbell was saying they had no capacity to test for it, WHO are shipping kits. Yesterdays video was all about Africa and the possible impact for those that have TB etc as well there.

 

[grunge]

Yes, it needs clarification.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

As at 10:58:
Total active cases worldwide = 40,759 (China = 29,825; ROW = 10,934)
Total currently serious/critical = 7,098 (China = 6,806; ROW = 292)

%serious/critical worldwide = 17.4% (7,098 / 40,759)
%serious/critical China = 22.8% (6,806 / 29,825)
%serious/critical ROW = 2.7% (292 / 10,934)

Of course lots could happen to change this.

From Dr Campbells update this morning using John Hopkins data.

1694 cases in Italy with 140 of them in intensive care which is 8.2%.

Edit: a few more mins in he states its not clear what they mean by "ITU"

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

It is definitely a fast moving thread, in keeping with the situation itself. And I agree that looking at metrics excluding the Chinese centroid is helpful for our understanding of how the outbreak is progressing. That is especially the case as the conditions there were/are very different to our own and they were able to take actions to slow transmission that we will just never feasibly be able to undertake (so it’s not especially helpful to use as a case study for us specifically). That’s not to say we should ignore their plight, or not learn from their actions — the Chinese people are going through a truly harrowing ordeal in large part for the benefit of the world right now, and that really should not be forgotten.

I certainly hope their and our subsequent efforts do allow us to look back in relief, especially as I am among those in the high-risk category, so obviously want this to have as little impact as is now possible.

Yes, me too. I take daily immunosuppressant medication for an extremely rare (but fortunately mild) condition (1 in 100,000). And have asthma.

Better get my will done soon.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I tend to look at the stats for Italy as being most indicative as to how the virus would affect the UK. If they are to be believed it doesn’t seem to be spreading that fast. I would have expected more serious outbreaks in the big cities by now.

Need to take a best fit to that data to smooth. The new cases we see now are presumably those resulting from infection prior to isolation measures in Korea and Italy. I think this is going to follow the Chinese path. It should really as it's the same pathogen with the same human response.

It's hard to believe that sanctions remain in force against Iran during a humanitarian crisis. Actually it isn't hard to believe.

I am very interested in the variation of the Italian new cases. What happens there will be a good guide to how it's going to go in Western Europe.

A major mystery is the low number of cases in Africa. Are they just not noticing the infection because it is being lost against all the other problems? Lots of questions. Not many answers at the moment, just lots of speculation.

Unfortunately, much of this is down to limited testing, meaning the actual cases in various regions is likely much higher than current confirmed numbers or even projections.

However, that could also work in everyone’s favour, as it means that non-severe cases could actually be much more common, as many of those will never be recorded.

It could go the other way, too, of course, in areas in Asia, Africa, and South America where there is almost no mechanism for proper screening or assessment. And there are indications the severe case and growth rate in Iran are actually relatively high, despite the legitimate and illegitimate issues with assessment/reporting there. But ultimately things could be better than current models suggest.

From most of the guidance I have read, researchers seem to think we’ll have much more accurate models in two weeks, once we get more comprehensive (and reliable) data from Italy and South Korea.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

From Dr Campbells update this morning using John Hopkins data.

1694 cases with 140 of them in intensive care which is 8.2%.

Edit: a few more mins in he states its not clear what they mean by "ITU"

Really? That's a bit worrying because I instantly thought it meant Intensive Therapy Unit (or Intensive Treatment Unit), basically an ICU. Haven't seen the video yet to see the context though.

 

[George Hannah]

If the spread becomes very severe countries will have to self isolate and the UK will have an advantage as an island nation with a beefed up border force and natural frontiers. Dr Strangelove will be pleased....

 

[SebastianBlue]

Yes, me too. I take daily immunosuppressant medication for an extremely rare (but fortunately mild) condition (1 in 100,000). And have asthma.

Better get my will done soon.

I just updated mine at the turn of year, but that was due to the recent diagnosis, not this outbreak.

Important for everyone to have proper, up-to-date will, though, as you never know what could happen to you, completely apart from all of this.

For example, my brother- and sister-in-law were actually just in a 100 car accident yesterday that killed three people as their band are touring the US — they were thankfully toward the beginning of it, which saw mostly just damage to vehicles, but people in the middle were not so fortunate.

It’s always things you don’t expect.

 

[grunge]

Really? That's a bit worrying because I instantly thought it meant Intensive Therapy Unit (or Intensive Treatment Unit), basically an ICU. Haven't seen the video yet to see the context though.

about 16 mins in for this part.

Edit: he's basically saying to him it means full on ventilation and what your ( and my view ) of ITU/ITC is, but he states that to them it may just mean high levels of oxygen and help? think it maybe him trying to be measured in his analysis.

 

[cibaman]

I just updated mine at the turn of year, but that was due to the recent diagnosis, not this outbreak.

Important for everyone to have proper, up-to-date will, though, as you never know what could happen to you, completely apart from all of this.

For example, my brother- and sister-in-law were actually just in a 100 car accident yesterday that killed three people as their band are touring the US — they were thankfully toward the beginning of it, which saw mostly just damage to vehicles, but people in the middle were not so fortunate.

It’s always things you don’t expect.

Sometimes it’s things you should expect. My nephew died from skin cancer in his 30s. He’d been treated for it for about 2 years. His insurance had paid out because of his condition. He was engaged. He’d used the insurance proceeds to buy a house with his fiancée in joint names. But he’d kept his original property which was in his name and rented it out. He didn’t have a will.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Sometimes it’s things you should expect. My nephew died from skin cancer in his 30s. He’d been treated for it for about 2 years. His insurance had paid out because of his condition. He was engaged. He’d used the insurance proceeds to buy a house with his fiancée in joint names. But he’d kept his original property which was in his name and rented it out. He didn’t have a will.

I am sorry for your loss, mate.

 

[bluethrunthru]

We don't need extra hospital capacity because this virus is mild and doesn't cause most people any big problems.

I am afraid the Governments Chief Medical Officer painted a different picture in this mornings press conference because if push comes to shove up to 1 million elderly people will be very badly affected and need hospital treatment. Sadly the plan is to kick it into the long grass so that the peak is spring/early summer when the hope the NHS has more capacity.

I take your point but I know who I consider to be best placed to make a valid judgement

 

[hilts]

Missed the press conference was watching 12 monkeys(no joke was on catch up spooky) news still blabbing on about washing hands, has anyone mentioned all the occupations and even the general public handling money?. Seems to have not been discussed much which is odd. Same with credit cards.