Interesting one this because Germany has the fourth largest elderly population in the world at 21%. I was thinking that the problem in Italy was because of the 23% elderly population (#2 in the world).
Of course it could be that the elderly population of Germany has been less exposed to it than in Italy so far. Which is why making projections on what will happen is too early in the life of this virus because there hasn’t been the mass exposure to it yet.
It could be that if it gets a grip in Germany, they could have similar death rates as Italy as it gets to their elderly more widely.
Going off all the food programmes I watch, that would be right. The amount of Nonna’s that Jamie Oliver and Gino D’Acampo visit in the smaller towns and villages seems huge!My thoughts are that it’s where in these countries it’s hitting.
Younger people tend to be in metropolitan areas and that is where it’s hitting mostly - in Italy it’s the northern areas and regions, rather than major cities.
Anyone who’s been to several villages in northern Italy will tell you that it’s full of the elderly in these places.
That’s my thinking anyway but I’m happy to be proven wrong as I don’t know for sure.
Some people have no respect and that's the number one qualification for discussion.I’m not doubting you after your weather prediction. #InMarvinWeTrust
Going off all the food programmes I watch, that would be right. The amount of Nonna’s that Jamie Oliver and Gino D’Acampo visit in the smaller towns and villages seems huge!
(that’s my scientific evidence for this!)
I'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.
Some people have no respect and that's the number one qualification for discussion.
No it doesn’t pal. Flu is 0.1% (across all of those that get it - including young and old, again with the oldest worst affected).
Covid-19 so far:
AGEDEATH RATE
*80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
at best it’s twice as deadly (if you’re under 40) against the average Flu fatality rate - which would of course be comparing apples with oranges as Flu’s 0.1% fatality rate includes all the age ranges as well.
To compare apples with apples then it’s 3.4% vs 0.1% so far.
Then there’s underlying health conditions which raise your chances as well (or lower them depending on your point of view):
PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONDEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
It’s twice as bad for older blokes than older women as well, according to Dr Michael Moseley.I've made a similar point already but just to amplify, it's all well and good those of us under say 30 and it good health, thinking "nothing to worry about", but that is little comfort to demographics less well placed.
I am nearing 60, with high blood pressure, overweight, drink two much and probably type 2 diabetes as well were I to pluck up the courage to get checked. But I am less worried about myself than I am about the rest of my close family. My Mum is 84, and lives on her own 200 miles away - how on earth I would look after her if she became seriously ill, god knows. My mother-in-law is mid-70's and has late stage COPD. If she gets it, she's a goner, no questions, if's buts or maybes. Dead as disco. My wife and brother-in-law have terrible chests, have both had pneumonia and the latter has been in hospital several times with chest problems already. My sister has bad asthma and has also been hospitalised with it.
These 0.2% figures for the fit and healthy are meaningless for the less fit or healthy. If/when this strikes, I am going to lose 1 family member for certain, and maybe others. That's how scary this is.
Gee thanks ;-) At least my life insurance is up to date.It’s twice as bad for older blokes than older women as well, according to Dr Michael Moseley.
Cool subjects!I'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.
I’m not remotely alarmed. I’m a realist, that’s all. And you can decide to disagree all you want, but you’re not understanding the figures so your position, such that it is, isn’t based on anything in the real world. It’s a wish/hope.We shall have to agree to dissagree on this. I am aware of the issues, and am concerned I just dont think we should be as alarmist as you are. I would ask you to calm down a bit theres no need to swear at me.
Which. Is. An. Order. Of. Magnitude. Greater. Than. Fucking. Flu.Well said. Early days so far. Far too many anomalies between data sets and countries imo. This was emphasised by the chief medical officer this week when he also said he thought the overall death rate in this country would be about 1%.
It's not rocket science...I'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.
Superb. I’ll look out for you in three years time if I’m desperate for help on black holes.I'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.
In on a short derby (i.e. City smashing the rags) viewing break from my birthday jollies.
No doubt I have missed a calm, reasonable, respectful, compassionate, practical, evidence-based discussion of COVID-19 without personal feuds, general handbags, and nutter theories disrupting the flow of the thread.
I'm still blaming the space lizards.In on a short derby (i.e. City smashing the rags) viewing break from my birthday jollies.
No doubt I have missed a calm, reasonable, respectful, compassionate, practical, evidence-based discussion of COVID-19 without personal feuds, general handbags, and nutter theories disrupting the flow of the thread.
So am I, I am very concerned. I am also aware that there are very large discrepancies between , numbers affected, numbers tested, treatment standards, and death rates between countries so far. I am also aware that our own chief medical officer stated that it was too early to precisely tell how badly this could affect our country. I am sure its going to be bad. Anyway have a good day.I’m not remotely alarmed. I’m a realist, that’s all. And you can decide to disagree all you want, but you’re not understanding the figures so your position, such that it is, isn’t based on anything in the real world. It’s a wish/hope.
And especially without bog roll discussion and political jabs.In on a short derby (i.e. City smashing the rags) viewing break from my birthday jollies.
No doubt I have missed a calm, reasonable, respectful, compassionate, practical, evidence-based discussion of COVID-19 without personal feuds, general handbags, and nutter theories disrupting the flow of the thread.