I have to say the last couple of days have been encouraging. Yes, the numbers are still increasing rapidly around the globe, but in several cases, the increases are less than we would expect if this was to follow pure exponential growth. +52 cases in the UK (up from 321) is only a 17% increase. Similar yesterday. This is much better than the 30%, 40% or 50% type figures we've seen over the preceding few days.
Of course 2 swallows do not make a summer. But it at least gives hope that perhaps the measures people are taking are starting to have an effect. I have not personally been into London for a couple of weeks now, but colleagues are saying that it is eerily quiet, in the streets and on the tube in particular. If people are staying at home more, mixing less, then hopefully perhaps the rate of increase not accelerating as fast.
17% daily increases as opposed to the previous average of circa 35% would make a HUGE difference.
By end of March:
@ +17% daily = 373 * 1.17 ^^ 21 = 10,000 cases
@ +35% daily = 373 * 1.35 ^^ 21 = 200,000 cases
Which if nothing else, only goes to show just how vital it is that we take this very seriously and EVERYONE changes their behaviour, washing more, not shaking hands, not eating (sandwiches for example) with your fingers unless you've washed your hands thoroughly, not going out as much, driving rather than going in the train. Etc. All of these combined WILL make a huge difference.
EDIT: Spain is out of control I see. Huge increases the last couple of days would tend to indicate Spanish people are not taking it as seriously as they should and are just carrying on as normal.
