How the epidemic behaves is a function of what a country does. Mass-test and it will fall a lot faster. See South Korea (they had 6 new cases today. 6.)This graph explains a lot, a SEVEN day rolling total.
Even when you have it under control people keep dying and the decline in deaths is slow.
Anyone expecting it to fall off a cliff is being ridiculously optimistic.
You have to take into account that PH England are gearing the UK for the long game because I think they are in the immunity route. They could well be right to do so too.
Here are the New York hospitalisation data. That's a rapid change. If you presented the UK data like that, it might look similar to be honest as it's gone from positive to negative but note the difference in presentation of data. That is in itself telling. The UK prepares people for the long haul, but there are actually two strategies which seem to have been forgotten. One is suppression. Even government supporters must admit that the UK is not going all out against the virus.
I haven't yet decided which strategy is right. A scientist should look at the data and see what that says. The missing data is antibodies. Is immunity attainable? That should really determine whether you go for it, or go for total suppression.
