COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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GM Scoreboard:

Total cases 717 - up from 584. 33% of NW total 2199.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY: 670 v 602 v 732 v 717 TODAY

MANCHESTER 122 - up from 111 Total cases 34. 934. Weekly 1119. Pop score up 22 to 6319. Weekly Pop down 2 to 203.

BOLTON 84 - up from 25. Total cases 16, 791. Weekly 427. Pop score up 29 to 5839. Weekly Pop up 2 to 148.

STOCKPORT 84 - up from 68. Total cases 12, 090. Weekly 600. Pop score up 28 to 4120. Weekly Pop up 6 to 204. Now worse than Manchester for first time in months. And highest pop in nearly 6 weeks. Stockport is becoming a bit of a worry. As the ever escalating weekly case total shows.

WIGAN 83 - up from 68. Total cases 18, 726. Weekly 613. Pop score up 26 to 5698. Weekly Pop up 8 to 187.

BURY 78 - up from 24. Total cases 11. 327. Weekly 463. Pop score up 41 to 5931. Weekly Pop up 10 to 243.

TAMESIDE 67 - up from 46, Total cases 11, 534. Weekly 400. Pop score up 29 to 5092. Weekly Pop up 7 to 176.

TRAFFORD 64 - DOWN from 88. Total cases 10, 048. Last GM borough under 10,000 cases passes the barrier. Weekly 555. Pop score up 27 to 4233, Catches up 1 on Stockport to trail by 113 in lowest Pop score in GM. Only these two left in the 4000s now. With Bury heading for the 6000 club any day now. Weekly Pop down 4 to 234.

OLDHAM 52 - DOWN from 59, Total cases 16, 426, Weekly444. Pop score up 22 to 6928. Weekly Pop down 8 to 188.

SALFORD 43 - DOWN from 44. Total cases 15, 017. Weekly 564. Pop score up 17 to 5802. Lowest rise today in GM. Weekly Pop down 13 to 218. Salford has turned the corner in a big way.

ROCHDALE 40 - DOWN from 51. Total cases 14, 432. Weekly 507. Pop score up 18 to 6489. Weekly Pop dpwn 11 to 228.
 
For those still puzzled why the Pop scores matter look at the GM ten boroughs list from most to least cases and it gives you one picture of what happened today with lowest cases the best.

But then look at the Pop Scores which even out to expected case numbers via per 100K population.

Then you see instead of

Rochdale/ Salford/ Oldham/ Trafford / Tameside / Bury/ Wigan / Stockport / Bolton / Manchester (Best to worst)

The picture changes as to who REALLY was best and worst today from the Pop score rises (lowest is best). - as in:

Salford 17 (BEST in GM) / Rochdale 18 / Oldham 22 / Manchester 22 / Wigan 26 / Trafford 27 / Stockport 28/ Bolton 29 / Tameside 29 / Bury 41 (WORST in GM)

This shows who really did well and not so well and how Bury had the worst day of all with a big jump in cases to a number well above it's expected number based on population.

In both regards the order in GM has really shifted big in the past 3 weeks. The boroughs that were in trouble are doing well, The ones that were doing well are in trouble. Cases are squeezing together and overall there is a slight uptick, But nothing as yet out of control.

But the places you expect to be driving the rise are largely not and the ones you expect to be low largely are not.

If we could understand why we might have a chance of doing something about it.
 
As I suggested might happen yesterday - today's England regional Pop Score changes have seem the North West drop another place by climbing above the North East. The South West escalation is also looking like any day now (in fact probably already happened as this is 5 day old data remember) Yorkshire will be top of the tree with the lowest Pop Score of any region.

Here is today's table.

England Region / Highest is Worst / Weekly Pop as of 22 Dec v Weekly Pop 15 Dec / Rise / % increase or decrease


LONDON 795 v 470 (up 325) / 68% UP

EAST 558 v 337 (up 219) / 66% UP

SOUTH EAST 484 v 326 (up 158) / 49% UP

WEST MIDLANDS 264 v 208 (up 56) / 27% UP

EAST MIDLANDS 256 v 209 (up 47) / 22% UP

NORTH WEST 210 v 161 (up 49) / 31% UP

NORTH EAST 209 v 179 (Up 30) / 17% UP

YORKSHIRE 182 v 163 (up 19) / 11% UP

SOUTH WEST 167 v 115 ( 52) / 46% UP


As you can see NW is faring the worst of the non southern regions and that may even have increased in the next few days based on the data we have since.

Yorkshire is easily faring the best and North East not far behind. Is this to do with % of the new strain of the virus as Yorkshire at last data count on this was the one area not increasing weekly in those numbers.

But the South West - in the past a rural area with low numbers - is doing worse than all three northern boroughs above it - even the NW - and looks certain to climb above at least Yorkshire in the next few days and maybe the NE too.

The NW is more volatile right now so it could go either way.
 
Here is the GM borough table based on the same principle as the England regions above.

BOROUGH POP SCORE TODAY v LAST WEEK / CHANGE OVER 7 DAYS Again as above Lowest numbers are the best.


BURY 243 v 181 / UP 62

TRAFFORD 234 v 148 / UP 86

ROCHDALE 228 v 184 / UP 44

SALFORD 218 v 157 / UP 61

STOCKPORT 204 v 119 / UP 85

MANCHESTER 203 v 166 / UP 37

OLDHAM 188 v 189 / DOWN 1

WIGAN 187 v 139 / UP 48

TAMESIDE 176 v 117 / 59

BOLTON 148 v 148 / LEVEL


GM is rising pretty well across the board with Trafford and Stockport the biggest problem areas in past week.
 
“
Ministers are aiming for all vulnerable Britons included in its priority list of nine vulnerable groups, which cover around a quarter of the population, to receive a first dose of the jab by the end of February, and a second dose by the end of March.

Once this feat is achieved, mortality from the illness will be reduced by up to 99 per cent”

from the telegraph
 
Leaving the uk tomorrow managed to pay for a test to leave. The local government ones weren’t available the gov website said they were to overrun. Went with my dad to see if people can just turn up, not a single person in the test centre apart from employees haha but they did refer us back to the website to rebook. Take care all and happy new year and hopefully we will all see an end to this madness soon x
 
Del_Bosque said:
“
Ministers are aiming for all vulnerable Britons included in its priority list of nine vulnerable groups, which cover around a quarter of the population, to receive a first dose of the jab by the end of February, and a second dose by the end of March.

Once this feat is achieved, mortality from the illness will be reduced by up to 99 per cent”

from the telegraph
Click to expand...

boom! And back to a huge degree of normality.
 
Del_Bosque said:
“
Ministers are aiming for all vulnerable Britons included in its priority list of nine vulnerable groups, which cover around a quarter of the population, to receive a first dose of the jab by the end of February, and a second dose by the end of March.

Once this feat is achieved, mortality from the illness will be reduced by up to 99 per cent”

from the telegraph
Click to expand...
Thats the target I heard back in November, but was told the 9 groups were about 20 million people and while the total population is about 65 mill the target is to get about 45 mill over 25s done by end of July. and the 20 million by the end of March is nearer half the vaccines needed to reach that target.
Whether we’ll vaccinate any under 18 s in the second part of the year I don’t know will probably depend on new trials, but there is a thought a far higher % age of under 25 s will have had the virus many asymptomatically and will already have some immunity.
 
blueparrot said:
Most place I've seen say about 7 days after the final dose. They also say it starts building up about 7 days after the first dose.
Click to expand...
Yep, so basically some effectiveness after a week. Which is better than none for the first few weeks. That’s positive whichever way you look at it, and while I think it may get worse before it gets better, I’m optimistic that in perhaps as little as 4-6 weeks time we will start to see the impact of the vaccine in terms of the figures being reported.
 
M18CTID said:
It’s not a vaccination certificate they’re talking about - just a negative Covid test which is fair enough IMO.
Click to expand...

I think those who are hard of understanding are peddling the various vaccines as a cure not a preventative measure.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Tier 4 because

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid-19: London Ambulance Service receives as many 999 calls as first wave

Patient demand is equal "and now arguably greater" than at the first wave's peak, the service says.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Thick as pig shit know nowt R/W radio host and thus self appointed epidemiologist

Click to expand...

I don't know who she is but that article was reasoned rather than the hysterical nonsense you usually read in the media. I've got no argument in principle with quarantine as a strategy to reduce infection rate but to be effective people have to be informed and buy into it. Instead, lockdowns have become blunt force instruments executed by distant elites who have an innate fear of the 'mob'.
 
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