I don't think people understand how the data works. We have masses of real life events that provide the input. We then can with very high confidence predict the probabilities of a range of outcomes.
There's no absolute certainty in any of it, but it's that damned close at some points in some ways that making decisions is pretty straightforward. Boris has learned the hard way. We can keep pretending optimism keeps the virus at bay. It really doesn't. The virus doesn't care. It doesn't think or feel at all. It's just a chemical.
We're looking at the same sort of decision we had when initially deciding if to go into lockdown. We left it, and it was worse than it needed to have been. Then we got impatient and decided to come out ASAP - leaving Manchester and the rest of the north fucked for most of the rest of the year. Then in December, we saw it comin g the whole time, and kept wishing it away. Leading to this lockdown and the tragedy of January.
We can do this forever, if people want. But a scientist can tell you there is another way.
Do what is neccesary to make the 'worst' outcomes very unlikely, do it ASAP and do it all for as long as you need to. Or don't, and then see what happens. You'll end up with stricter restrictions, for longer, just to avoid an inevitable catastrophe. It can literally go on forever. You shouldn't need to feel the air rushing from the oncoming train before you get off the tracks.
It's like the council tax bill. Payment is inevitable. You can wish it away as long as you like. But the bill keeps getting bigger all the time.