FogBlueInSanFran
Well-Known Member
OK - I'll answer. Almost certainly KJU wants to remain in power - hence the nukes.
Now answer my question - do you think he's (KJU) rational? Do you think it's impossible that he might launch every nuke he has if his regime is going to collapse? - certainly regime collapse is possible.
What about selling nukes for cash - do you think that KJU would never, ever do this?
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Hysterical panic? Hardly. Thanks for the insult.
Rather - very much concerned. NK Nukes + ICBMs + unstable government - why you're A-OK with this state of affairs is beyond me.
Meanwhile, KJU is busy cranking away at ever more and more nukes.
Yeah... that seems totally safe to me too.
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Fast forward 3 years.
Trump pulls US troops out of SK - for whatever reason - and out of Japan too - certainly this scenario is plausible.
Next, KJU invades SK.
What do you want to do about that? - me too, fucking nothing.
Or perhaps you're going to intervene. What will China do? What about Russia? It's a total fucking mess. Which NK absolutely knows - hence the decision to invade - and possibly using nukes during said invasion.
Next, KJU nukes Japan. And then sends troops to invade Japan.
What do you want to do about that?
Chickenshit? Or just let that go too.
By the way... China is elated by this state of affairs. Intervention is going to mean war with China. And probably Russia.
Next up - an emboldened KJU nukes Guam. And invades.
Is that OK?
Hell, why would we even dream of retaliation?
Etc.
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The trouble is... you assume that a foreign entity won't pursue aggression due to nuclear deterance - whereas adversaries may calculate that the US won't intervene in military maters for fear of nuclear retaliation.
KJU or his successors might well pursue military action - or might sell nukes under duress - or might lose nukes to terrorists when government collapses.
Brushing aside this threat is - honestly - fucking stupid.
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I'm not saying that any of the above scenarios are likely - what I'm saying is that each of the above scenarios is very much possible. And should any of them occur - millions and millions of lives hang in the balance.
Color me hysterical if you will - but I'll color you naive meanwhile.
Not meant to be an insult -- meant to be an accurate reflection of your perspective. Which it is, 100%. Exhibit A is your post.
"Almost certainly he wants to remain in power" -- you've answered my question then. Hence why he won't do ANY of what you fear. He'll leverage it, he'll leverage the threat. He'll never do it. And yeah, I do think he's rational. He's acting exactly as any rational despot would. Which is the threat means more than the action externally.
"You assume that a foreign entity won't pursue aggression due to nuclear deterance [sic]" -- exactly. And it doesn't have to be nuclear.
As far as your doomsday scenario, the fat fucker can't feed his own people, but, yeah, he's going to launch all out war in Asia. Sure. Oh, and he'll nuke 'em to boot -- because when you want new territory, the best idea is is to destroy the infrastructure you need and make the place fucking uninhabitable for 50 years. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Why didn't I think of that?