Donald Trump

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It gets harder and harder by the day to see how normal, decent, people who maybe aren't super into politics but follow it and vote are going to turn out for Trump in November. He'll get the base of course, but as we've been saying a million times, elections are still decided by the group in the middle.

I'm also finding it somewhat interesting that everyone is talking about when, not if, Biden's lead is going to shrink, and there is exactly nobody talking about the possibility that it actually just keeps getting wider. The election is going to be held at a time of 10%+ unemployment and 175k dead from a preventable disease. Meanwhile Trump has shown absolutely zero capacity to moderate his message, reach out to people outside his base, or lead competently at all. Why are we so sure he's going to come back again?
The frightening bit of the bolded sentence is that it is an *optimistic* projection — current trends lend to much worse unemployment (do to a second wave of lockdowns, deaths/hospitalisations, and better data collection/reporting reflecting actual functional unemployment) and higher death/hospitalisations.

And you are absolutely right about his campaign no longer even pretending to be courting new supporters — which is interesting given his base is less than a third of the voting population by most assessments. He is running as George Wallace, if anyone gets that American political reference: a racist, white supremacist, fascist, conspiratorial ‘populist’. In many ways Trump is just retreading his 2016 campaign, only now with added division and new villains to be portrayed: “leftists”, BLM, Antifa (whoever he and Barr decides they are in this case), progressives, anti-racists, anti-Confederates, and “anti-Americans” (which include all of the ones before mentioned).

It is one of the things that makes many people — including many of us in this thread — very nervous, as it is something dictators (or soon to be dictators) tend to do before popular elections in order to indirectly ‘deputise’ their supporters as voter suppression, intimidation, and retaliation officers. If you can get 30% of the population to act aggressively (even violently) against even a portion of the other 70% leading up to and on Election Day, you can potentially shift things just enough to allow for a woefully problematic Electoral College to give you a narrow (optically “legitimate”) victory. Or, more likely in this case, get the “legitimate” vote count close enough to a victory to allow for less-obvious manipulation and tampering to get you the rest of the way.
 
It's a small sample size in a circle of rarified air, but I was having a proper socially-distanced BBQ dinner with two conservative friends of mine last night and they are absolutely done with Trump. One voted for him and the other for Gary Johnson. "The best thing about Joe Biden is that he's harmless, and he's a decent man" one said. The other chimed in with "I'll be glad to going back to arguing about taxes and the economy instead of listening to this stupid asshole trying to get the KKK voter count up."

"We fucked up", said the guy who voted for Trump. "I thought being President would change him. He's right about a lot of things, especially China. But no policy is worth this. He's stupid and morally bankrupt. I should have seen it. You warned me. I didn't listen." The guy who voted for Johnson said, "I still don't think I could ever have voted for Hillary but seeing what happened, I wish she had won. I'm fine with Biden."

The discussion then turned to who will run in 2024 since we all assume if Biden wins he'll only serve one term. They both liked Yang and Mayor Pete among the Democrats. I brought up the GOP enablers who I think of as so feckless and such cowards they're nearly as bad as Trump and one said, "They really probably should be punished for that. But Democrats need to run people fed-up Republicans will vote for, not AOC clones."

So whatever you think of all this, I think the takeaway is a longing for a return to normalcy and calm in politics. These are very smart, self-made, suburban guys just this side of 50 -- guys who are great dads and good husbands. They are exactly the voters the GOP could always count on. No more.
You know, if you sent this to the RNC along with those guys' phone numbers you might just convince them that Trump is leading the party to disaster.

So don't.
 
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