Donald Trump

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Gaudion M said:
The issue with polls is they are either very basic and just ask people sat at home how they will vote. The results of that don't factor in turnout at all. So most polls also ask how likely are you to vote and then they call this an enthusiasm score and they combine this with historic data on voting trends to project what sort of outcome you will get. The projections are difficult as it is a mix of forward looking and backward looking data. Trump voters are often people who don't turn out to vote and that is what court the pollsters of guard last time, the rednecks who normally stay at home came out in force and the solid Dem voting block was a touch softer than expected.

This time round the pollsters will have the rednecks in the calculations so the polls should be more reliable when predicting the Trump numbers.
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Well let’s hope they are more reliable for sure. They are flawed, but they are the best we’ve got. My feeling here is that more than any place /time in history almost, they must be such a small number of ‘swayable’ voters out there. He is such a polarising Marmite figure, especially 4 years in when the element of newness and curiousness about him has vanished, that I would have thought the vast majority of the electorate will not alter from their current voting intentions, whatever he does. Who could still be sat on the fence about him now? you’re either a believer or you’re not.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
The preachers 'used the wrong' words in their video where they claimed the new system removes 99% of the virus from the air, "if it was even there in the first place". Apparently, the company that installed that system made a statement saying they do not claim their system has 'any' effect on COVID-19.
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Not surprised in the rather litigious USA! They wouldn't have any idea if their system would affect Covid-19, as they won't have had a chance to test it.
 
chesterbells said:
Well let’s hope they are more reliable for sure. They are flawed, but they are the best we’ve got. My feeling here is that more than any place /time in history almost, they must be such a small number of ‘swayable’ voters out there. He is such a polarising Marmite figure, especially 4 years in when the element of newness and curiousness about him has vanished, that I would have thought the vast majority of the electorate will not alter from their current voting intentions, whatever he does. Who could still be sat on the fence about him now? you’re either a believer or you’re not.
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Agree but there is always a fringe and any political base will shift with events. The rednecks who came out in force last time for Trump are usually in the low turnout group where as your white collar, older and wealthier conservative GOP voters are pretty solid. If Trump gets them all out again he gets similar numbers to last time. The risk for him is the rednecks default to type and just don't bother and the surburban republicans get turned off by the shit show and also stay at home.

Biden has a similar problem with young voters and BAME voters - they have far more riding on this and you would expect them to turn out in force but they are groups that historically always vote below the average. And its a low average, something like 55% of potential voters turn out in the US.
 
Gaudion M said:
Agree, its a tired stand up routine. Back in 2016/17 it was all targeted at Hilary and the Swamp. He doesn't have a Hilary to aim at and he is the Swamp now. I'm sure the attacks on Biden will come down the road and the timing will be highly targeted but as of right now he has no good material. Its just dog whistle racism to fire up the crowd. Events can change things but its looking bleak right now.
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Trump's biggest problem is that biden is not really doing a great deal now for him to take potshots at, the result is he's miles up in the polls.

That said, the biggest worry of the election is that trump has plenty of cult member's who will vote for him under any circumstances. Biden doesn't really have that cult following so he does need to ensure a solid voter turnout to combat this issue
 
EU prohibits flights from the US as an area of high risk, three months after the US imposed its own ban on flights from the EU, which remains in effect.
 
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