Donald Trump

Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Election day today. Should give a better picture of the mood than polling.
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Agreed. Polls have not be kind to Biden as of late...but the USA presidential election is the ultimate numbers game.
I'm not sure how anyone could say Trump has improved in the following swing states he lost in 2020 when you look at election day voting from 2022, and also today.

Arizona: 2022 Katie Hobbs (D) won the governor election over one of the biggest trump supporters Kari Lake
Georgia:Since 2020 Trump has been charged within the state for election interference. Warnock beat trump backed candidate Walker for Senate race. He could easily win Georgia, but by no means will it be easy for him.
Michigan: Michigan voted overwhelmingly blue in 2022, and has a popular Democratic governor.
Nevada: Senate race went in Democratic favor in 2022 over Trump backed candidate.
Pennsylvania: Governor and Senate race were won over trump backed candidates in 2022.
Virginia: Election results tonight look like they're overwhelmingly going in Democrats favor. Trump has likely no chance in this state for 2024.
Wisconsin: Governor race was won by incumbent Democrat, but this state is very much in play for Trump in 2024.

He needs to likely win at least one of these states and likely two to win the presidency in 2024.
It will be tight race as it usually is, but 2022 was very good for the democrats.
 
Keeper! said:
True but only those said criminal cases will stop him, if he is on the ballot sheet next year, he will win.
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I agree with that. Look who he's up against. I cannot imagine what Biden will be like in 4 years time and that is the alternative Americans would have to vote for.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Cannot see it myself. He's absolute toast on some of the criminal cases and I cannot see the yanks allowing a convicted felon, whilst serving his sentence, to be anointed as President.
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Not been following it much, is he defo banged to rights then? Been reading a report in the financial times saying if he gets in again the worlds fucked.
 
East Level 2 said:
Is he guaranteed the Republican nomination? Are Republicans that fucking stupid?
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A not insignificant number of them risked charges of sedition because a large orange baby man told them to. A further very significant number cheered them on and think they were doing the right thing. Meanwhile their political 'elite' has turned itself into a travelling circus show. So I think the answer to your question is quite probably yes they are.
 
Elbow beards said:
Not been following it much, is he defo banged to rights then? Been reading a report in the financial times saying if he gets in again the worlds fucked.
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He's facing 4 serious cases. The civil fraud trial is ongoing and his defence has been a disaster. He's lost and its a question of what level of damages. He could lose Trump tower / maralago etc.

Of the 3 big criminal cases the documents case is a slam dunk but he has a friendly judge. She is helping him delay, its unclear how this will play out for time but the evidence is overwhelming. His only hope appears to be getting some delusional Trump fans on the jury.

The other two relate to the election and fall out. One federal in dc and one state in Georgia. These will be complex, but his Co accused are flipping on him.

Time wise the DC case goes first in late March. So he will probably be well ahead in the nomination by the time that starts. And nominated wile its ongoing.

He's also got a stormy daniels hush money trial, another criminal trial, in early 2024. That could be the monkey that climbs up the back wall and gets him.

And legal efforts in various states to have him thrown of the ballot under the insurrection clause. Plus some other lower level civil damages type stuff.

So 2024 will be wall to wall criminal and civil trials for Trump. He has terrible lawyers who basically echo trumps own opinions as opposed to any strategic legal approach. Goading the judge and intimidating witnesses seems to be the main tactic.

So odds are something will get him.
 
East Level 2 said:
Is he guaranteed the Republican nomination? Are Republicans that fucking stupid?
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Agree with above, its a cult. Chris Cristie is trying to take on the base with some truth bombs but it's not hitting home. Privately most senior GOP types would hope it would but they are too far gone.

I suspect he gets nominated and convicted of a crime in 2024.
 
Elbow beards said:
Not been following it much, is he defo banged to rights then? Been reading a report in the financial times saying if he gets in again the worlds fucked.
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The election result interference charges are serious with probably the most severe penalties, but harder to prove because a defence could be that he genuinely thought he had won and was simply trying to find evidence for that. It's quite difficult to prove that he knew he had lost as was simply trying to cheat his way into the Whilehouse. That said, there's quite a lot of evidence and people prepared to testify, so he could be found guilty. I'd say its 50/50 on that one, personally but I am not a lawyer.

But the slam dunk is the classified documents at his home. Wilful retention of classified documents comes under espionage and could get him 10 years. Trying to cover it up, 20 years. He's on tape admitting he knows he's got illegally held documents, so I cannot possibly imagine how he can get off with this. Not to mention the people working for him testifying that they were told to hide them.
 
CTIDANDREW said:
Agreed. Polls have not be kind to Biden as of late...but the USA presidential election is the ultimate numbers game.
I'm not sure how anyone could say Trump has improved in the following swing states he lost in 2020 when you look at election day voting from 2022, and also today.

Arizona: 2022 Katie Hobbs (D) won the governor election over one of the biggest trump supporters Kari Lake
Georgia:Since 2020 Trump has been charged within the state for election interference. Warnock beat trump backed candidate Walker for Senate race. He could easily win Georgia, but by no means will it be easy for him.
Michigan: Michigan voted overwhelmingly blue in 2022, and has a popular Democratic governor.
Nevada: Senate race went in Democratic favor in 2022 over Trump backed candidate.
Pennsylvania: Governor and Senate race were won over trump backed candidates in 2022.
Virginia: Election results tonight look like they're overwhelmingly going in Democrats favor. Trump has likely no chance in this state for 2024.
Wisconsin: Governor race was won by incumbent Democrat, but this state is very much in play for Trump in 2024.

He needs to likely win at least one of these states and likely two to win the presidency in 2024.
It will be tight race as it usually is, but 2022 was very good for the democrats.
Click to expand...

Democrat won the Kentucky Gubernatorial race.
Ohioans enshrined abortion access in state law.
Ohioans voted for legalising weed.
Democrats won control of Virginia's state legislature.
Democrat won the election for the Penn supreme court.


Did anything go the Republicans' way at all? They got absolutely hammered.
 
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