Donald Trump

KS55 said:
I’m not convinced it’s close, at least in terms of the popular vote. Those polls are well dodgy.
1. Many of them are based on likely to vote respondents, which excludes those who did not vote last time. So all those young people and suburban women who have recently registered are not in the sample.
2. Many polls still rely on landlines. Young people tend not to answer unknown callers whether landline or on-line.
3. Most polls make adjustments which assume they are under counting Republicans, this can be totally wrong.
4. Many polls are paid for by parties which throws doubt on the results published.
5. There is the phenomenon of polls tending towards the same results.
6. I suspect many respondents are hiding their true allegence from their Republican family.
7. Etc etc.


On the ground, the evidence points to Harris: enthusiasm, rallies, local active offices etc.
Vote blue.
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And with respect...
You (and I too) are very anti-Trump.
The tendency is to view evidence in support of ones convictions in a favorable light; and those in opposition to ones views, as suspect.
The truth is - there are numerous credible arguments about why the polls are off, inflating the support for Trump; and an equal number of salient counter-arguments about why the polls are far too favorable for Harris. In the past 4 years or so we've seen polls at variance with results swinging widely either way - either far too or less favorable for either Democrats or Republicans.

My sense is that this race is too close to call either way, although I think that Harris has a slight advantage. I would not however be surprised to see Trump win by a slight margin, or Harris win by a slight or better-than slight margin.

Complicating matters enormously is the Electoral College effect - where the popular vote (which I'm 90% certain will go for Harris) doesn't matter - instead it's the EC that counts - likely down to a very few voters in a very few states. Who-the-fuck knows how that will go?

We'll see.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
WIth respect...
I've worked and lived in Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ohio; I've spent considerable time visiting Missouri; and have and have visited Louisiana, Indiana, and Florida.
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Visited six of those (not Ohio or Indiana) tbf and like I said that wasn’t my lived experience, but then again I have incredible people skills! :-)
 
Like him or not, he will win this presidential election. But it will come at a cost. By time he takes over office, we would have already witnessed a nuclear attack, and the world will be at its knees economically.

I need to stop smoking the good stuff
 
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