Elections

[ROCKET80]

Labour are pretty much finished in Scotland, not just as a viable option but as a party. They took for granted that Scotland was anti-Conservative and looked at the SNP like they do Plaid Cymru and the Greens. They underestimated the SNP and allowed them to stoke the fires nationalism and push for a referendum for independence. The lack of presence and effort by Labour during that time left many Scots disillusioned with them. The Conservatives didn’t care as they don’t need or want Scotland (Scotland seceding from the union is good for them as it would have kept Labour in opposition for years).

Labour have made the same mistake with UKIP, originally thinking they would eat into the Conservative vote when the reality was UKIP banging the immigration drum was always going to play on the prejudices of many of the working class that would normally vote Labour.

As a left leaning centralist I don’t mind Corbyn but he’s been dealt a losing hand. How this Conservative government won the election with relative ease is a sad indictment of what has happened to Labour. Milliband was a disaster and the party is a complete shambles. Corbyn will struggle to unite the party, mainly because of the career politicians (Blairites) that still reside in it and that he’s battling against right-wing media (the coverage he gets makes the reporting on City look fair and balanced). He doesn’t help himself though, in this day and age you need to be media savvy and have some charisma in order to appeal to the reality TV watching hordes.

Sadly this Conservative government are sitting pretty at the moment, they have UKIP eating into the Labour vote and the SNP firmly in place in Scotland. They can campaign in England that a vote for Labour is a vote for Scotland pushing the majority of the centre to lean right and win by a comfortable margin.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

This seems to be a thread of conservative triumphalism but didn't the Tories lose 5x as many seats as labour and lose the key mayoral elections they fought against labour?

Doesn't get coverage here obviously but reading through at the weekend this thread seemed out of line with what the results were showing? We're pills expecting huge gains for labour and the Tories losing hundreds of seats

Ken - as a staunch Labour voter myself, I agree with a lot of what you post, but if you’re seriously thinking this was anything but a disaster for Labour, I thinkk you're mistaken. Mid-term, Tories pulling themselves apart - this would normally have meant hundreds of gained seats for the opposition. Now the 3rd party in Scotland, lost seat/votes in previous heartland of Wales. I never normally back any party until 3/6 months before an election, but I think there’s serious money to be made at current odds of 5/2 on for a Tory majority. Camera-On at 9/1 against also looks tempting - he may want to keep Boris out. But Labour are royally and utteerly fucked with Corbyn at the helm. Completely unelectable. Great rhetoric, great stance against many of the things I abhor. But, as Alistair Campbell said, “the worst day in power is infinitely better than your best day in opposition”. This country has repeatedly shown it is centrist. Corbyn makes Kinnock look electable.

See the above.
Unless you're some sort of fantasist fanatic, which I very much doubt, it is screamingly obvious that the recent election results are disastrous for Labour.
With a government struggling on numerous fronts, split down the middle and riven with in-fighting, plus the traditional kick-out at incumbent administrations
mid term, Labour should, as it did a few years ago, have made massive inroads. The problem, which everyone with any sense whatsoever has been saying,
is Corbyn. Far left dinosaurs like this were resoundingly rejected years ago; the Labour party has hit back at a devastatingly disappointing GE result by hitting
out at the electorate, rather than present them with a credible leader. The problem they have now is that because of the leap in membership, removing him
will be tricky, to say the least.

 

[The perfect fumble]

See the above.
Unless you're some sort of fantasist fanatic, which I very much doubt, it is screamingly obvious that the recent election results are disastrous for Labour.
With a government struggling on numerous fronts, split down the middle and riven with in-fighting, plus the traditional kick-out at incumbent administrations
mid term, Labour should, as it did a few years ago, have made massive inroads. The problem, which everyone with any sense whatsoever has been saying,
is Corbyn. Far left dinosaurs like this were resoundingly rejected years ago; the Labour party has hit back at a devastatingly disappointing GE result by hitting
out at the electorate, rather than present them with a credible leader. The problem they have now is that because of the leap in membership, removing him
will be tricky, to say the least.

Back in the 90's Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson and a tight group around them convinced the Labour Party, after the death of John Smith, that the reason Labour kept losing elections was because of the party itself. Unlike the Gang of Four ten years earlier they didn't set up a new party, they went about refashioning, at least at PLP level, a new party within a party.

The landslide in 97 convinced what was to become the "Blairites" and chunk of the party itself (who believed New Labour was a populist Social Democratic Party) that they were right. Though few now believe that had John Smith lived he would not also have trounced the Tories.

Twenty years on and the central lie has been exposed, New Labour is simply Tory Lite and those that hanker for their return, in my experience, fall in to that category.

We are now in the interregnum, between what went before and what is to come, the left is in the ascendancy, but this is merely a cleansing process for the party, while it rids itself of the Blairites and re-sets to become a truly representative Social Democratic Party.

As for the elections, they were not a disaster for Labour by any means, and as for Scotland there are forces at work there that are not related to Corbyn, it is not credible to imagine the party would have done any better north of the border with any of Corbyn's challengers at the helm.

For those howling at the moon, and you are one of them, parties clearly have to fashion their policies to appeal to the electorate but if the consensus is that the electorate are either conservative with a big C, or conservative with a small c, then what room is there for a party that is neither?

Answer...None.

Those that scream the party has been hijacked, gone mad and if only they would bring back David Milliband from the States it would be alright miss the point, it would not be alright. The electorate might be fickle, it might even be foolish from time to time, but they are not stupid. Blairism re-heated is not the way forward. You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time and, as I'm sure Abraham Lincoln would agree were he alive today there are some things the party cannot stomach and Liz Kendle the Blairite candidate was one of them and the other not Liz Kendle and not Jeremy Corbyn candidates were not much more palatable either.

Corbyn is sixty seven this month, sooner than you think a popular, though not populist, Social Democrat will appear, one who can unite the party and appeal with a genuine Social Democratic platform to the electorate, my money is on this guy.....

Clive Lewis: Norwich South MP

 

[Ancient Citizen]

[

Clive Lewis: Norwich South MP[/QUOTE]

Back in the 90's Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson and a tight group around them convinced the Labour Party, after the death of John Smith, that the reason Labour kept losing elections was because of the party itself. Unlike the Gang of Four ten years earlier they didn't set up a new party, they went about refashioning, at least at PLP level, a new party within a party.

The landslide in 97 convinced what was to become the "Blairites" and chunk of the party itself (who believed New Labour was a populist Social Democratic Party) that they were right. Though few now believe that had John Smith lived he would not also have trounced the Tories.

Twenty years on and the central lie has been exposed, New Labour is simply Tory Lite and those that hanker for their return, in my experience, fall in to that category.

We are now in the interregnum, between what went before and what is to come, the left is in the ascendancy, but this is merely a cleansing process for the party, while it rids itself of the Blairites and re-sets to become a truly representative Social Democratic Party.

As for the elections, they were not a disaster for Labour by any means, and as for Scotland there are forces at work there that are not related to Corbyn, it is not credible to imagine the party would have done any better north of the border with any of Corbyn's challengers at the helm.

For those howling at the moon, and you are one of them, parties clearly have to fashion their policies to appeal to the electorate but if the consensus is that the electorate are either conservative with a big C, or conservative with a small c, then what room is there for a party that is neither?

Answer...None.

Those that scream the party has been hijacked, gone mad and if only they would bring back David Milliband from the States it would be alright miss the point, it would not be alright, the electorate might be fickle, it might even be foolish from time to time, but they are not stupid. Blairism re-heated is not the way forward and the party will not stomach it. Corbyn is sixty seven this month, sooner than you think a popular, though not populist, Social Democrat will appear, one who can unite the party and appeal with a genuine Social Democratic platform to the electorate, my money is on this guy.....

Clive Lewis: Norwich South MP

Blair, won three elections on the trot initially by trashing what was then 'Tory Sleaze,' then following it up with what then appealed to Middle England.
Smith may or may not have done the same, but suggesting that he would have done without any doubt is seeing things as you'd like to see them.
The term 'Tory Lite' has been adopted by the far left as an attempt to disparage what they see as Blair's sell-out, and whilst we'd probably agree that
Blair was/is an odious chancer, he knew how to appeal to this extremely important demographic that is the key to winning elections, and moving to the left
will not return a Labour government, hence the 'New Labour tag that became successful.
You, and others on the left continue to ignore this, the championing of Corbyn as leader completely alienates the type of swing voter that would ensure a Labour victory.
The chap above may do it, I don't know him, but if he's some sort of Corbyn acolyte, in the mould of the current shadow front bench, then the moon howling will
become deafening.

 

[The perfect fumble]

[

Clive Lewis: Norwich South MP


Blair, won three elections on the trot initially by trashing what was then 'Tory Sleaze,' then following it up with what then appealed to Middle England.
Smith may or may not have done the same, but suggesting that he would have done without any doubt is seeing things as you'd like to see them.
The term 'Tory Lite' has been adopted by the far left as an attempt to disparage what they see as Blair's sell-out, and whilst we'd probably agree that
Blair was/is an odious chancer, he knew how to appeal to this extremely important demographic that is the key to winning elections, and moving to the left
will not return a Labour government, hence the 'New Labour tag that became successful.
You, and others on the left continue to ignore this, the championing of Corbyn as leader completely alienates the type of swing voter that would ensure a Labour victory.
The chap above may do it, I don't know him, but if he's some sort of Corbyn acolyte, in the mould of the current shadow front bench, then the moon howling will
become deafening.

Governments tend to lose elections, oppositions rarely win them. We can both agree that Tory sleaze, and I would suggest a general weariness with the Tories after 18 years, led to the landslide in 97. And yes, Tony Blair had skills, and he was charismatic and he possessed all those other things that appeal to middle England, but in the two subsequent general elections that he won our lead was eroded, despite the Tories going through four leaders in eight years.

In the end the "Blair revolution" petered out, he left in 2007 before he was pushed and Brown limped on for three years, though he and Alstair Darling did sterling work in the aftermath of the crash.

Subsequently the ditherer David Miliband managed to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory and the party limped on while his younger brother tried to hold together its disparate strands.

So we are where we are, clearly the Blairites did not understand the dynamics of their own party, because Corbyn's resounding victory came as a complete shock to them, as clearly it does to you, but the tone of your post is typical of the criticism of Corbyn and his suporters, Corbyn is in European terms a mainstream Social Democrat, go anywhere in Europe and he would be considered very soft left.

In Germany he would be considered centrist Social Democratic.

 

[The perfect fumble]

[

Blair was/is an odious chancer, he knew how to appeal to this extremely important demographic that is the key to winning elections, and moving to the left
will not return a Labour government, hence the 'New Labour tag that became successful.
You, and others on the left continue to ignore this,

Actually we don't, Blair did not depose Michael Foot, Kinnock and Smith were his predecessors. New Labour was a cure to a disease the party did not have, something people like you, whoever people like you are, continue to ignore. The Labour party has not been hijacked, or infiltrated, the scale of Corbyn's victory is testimony to that, again something you ignore.

Corbyn was elected using a mechanism championed by the right in the party after the blessed David was denied the leadership because of the union vote back in 2010, every one of Corbyn's leadership competitors voted for it.

The painful truth is the only people in denial are people like you, to go on endlessly about Corbyn supporters as if they are a minority in the party is gobsmacking, it is you that are in a minority, assuming you are in the party, if you are not, painful as it seems the Labour party is under no obligation to morph itself into whatever might be acceptable to you, that's not how it works.

You might say if that is the case then the Labour party is doomed never to be in government, that is simply not realistic.The country will tire of the Tories, it always does. The Labour party has to be in a position to capture the imagination of the voters in 2020, or 2025, but whatever party emerges to fight the Tories it will not be Blairite, they're done, if you were in the party you'd know that.

In the end a party has to stand for something, what that something is, is still in the mix, what is happening right now is not about Corbyn, but about the death pangs of Blairism as they come to terms with their own demise, and their inability to accept that for them the party is literally over, until they do they will continue to damage the party, if they were to constructively engage then the party might well be more to their liking in 2020, all their carping does is draw battle lines and a party divided never succeeds.

My advice, if you will take it, is if you care for the party then get with the programme and change the party from within, if your arguments hold water they'll prevail, the party has not gone mad, it wants to be in government, but not at any price.

The only other advice I'd give is ditch hard left, far left labels, with the exception of the odd Trot here and there it's Daily Mail speak.

 

[inbetween]

Labour are pretty much finished in Scotland, not just as a viable option but as a party. They took for granted that Scotland was anti-Conservative and looked at the SNP like they do Plaid Cymru and the Greens. They underestimated the SNP and allowed them to stoke the fires nationalism and push for a referendum for independence. The lack of presence and effort by Labour during that time left many Scots disillusioned with them. The Conservatives didn’t care as they don’t need or want Scotland (Scotland seceding from the union is good for them as it would have kept Labour in opposition for years).

Labour have made the same mistake with UKIP, originally thinking they would eat into the Conservative vote when the reality was UKIP banging the immigration drum was always going to play on the prejudices of many of the working class that would normally vote Labour.

As a left leaning centralist I don’t mind Corbyn but he’s been dealt a losing hand. How this Conservative government won the election with relative ease is a sad indictment of what has happened to Labour. Milliband was a disaster and the party is a complete shambles. Corbyn will struggle to unite the party, mainly because of the career politicians (Blairites) that still reside in it and that he’s battling against right-wing media (the coverage he gets makes the reporting on City look fair and balanced). He doesn’t help himself though, in this day and age you need to be media savvy and have some charisma in order to appeal to the reality TV watching hordes.

Sadly this Conservative government are sitting pretty at the moment, they have UKIP eating into the Labour vote and the SNP firmly in place in Scotland. They can campaign in England that a vote for Labour is a vote for Scotland pushing the majority of the centre to lean right and win by a comfortable margin.

The UKIP vote is tied to the referendum, depending on the result they might not exist in a few years time. Otherwise, I just cannot see them overturning the traditional leaning voters.

I think the next election will be plainly decided by who the Tory's elect as their leader. I think a Boris led campaign could be very dangerous for Labour, he will win a lot of votes just because he doesn't appear at first light the slimy eton type. If he can promise a lot and back it up, he has already beaten Corbyn. If Osborne get's in then well I think all bets are off.

As for Labour, I think Corbyn could be strong if he was decisive on key issues but he isn't, he has no real opinion on Europe, wants us to throw away our army and has yet to mention any ideas for the economy so far. He is so far completely unelectable and really his biggest threat to Cameron is to constantly tap him on the back over the latest wrongdoings. He might of won the greatest mandate of any leader for a party but he has to convince far more than 3% of the country.

 

[cibaman]

The UKIP vote is tied to the referendum, depending on the result they might not exist in a few years time. Otherwise, I just cannot see them overturning the traditional leaning voters.

I think the next election will be plainly decided by who the Tory's elect as their leader. I think a Boris led campaign could be very dangerous for Labour, he will win a lot of votes just because he doesn't appear at first light the slimy eton type. If he can promise a lot and back it up, he has already beaten Corbyn. If Osborne get's in then well I think all bets are off.

As for Labour, I think Corbyn could be strong if he was decisive on key issues but he isn't, he has no real opinion on Europe, wants us to throw away our army and has yet to mention any ideas for the economy so far. He is so far completely unelectable and really his biggest threat to Cameron is to constantly tap him on the back over the latest wrongdoings. He might of won the greatest mandate of any leader for a party but he has to convince far more than 3% of the country.

I think Johnson's chances of winning the next election depend on which way the referendum goes. If the vote is to Remain and the cabinet remains broadly as is and Cameron's succession is not 100% dominated by the EU, Johnson isn't guaranteed to take over from Cameron. But if he does he will easily beat Corbyn.

If the Leavers win, Johnson will definitely be the next PM but of a government driven further to the right as moderate cabinet ministers are replaced by rabid Leavers. The unions will then scent the chance of winning the next election and will very quickly ditch Corbyn with someone who the country might actually vote for.

 

[CityStu]

I think Johnson's chances of winning the next election depend on which way the referendum goes. If the vote is to Remain and the cabinet remains broadly as is and Cameron's succession is not 100% dominated by the EU, Johnson isn't guaranteed to take over from Cameron. But if he does he will easily beat Corbyn.

If the Leavers win, Johnson will definitely be the next PM but of a government driven further to the right as moderate cabinet ministers are replaced by rabid Leavers. The unions will then scent the chance of winning the next election and will very quickly ditch Corbyn with someone who the country might actually vote for.

But then you could argue that Labour would need to replace Corbyn with someone who was pro-Leave. I'm not sure they have (m)any MPs with cabinet experience that support that side.

I personally think that UKIP will rebrand a bit after the election to aim themselves at the British working class, since that's where they've had gains in the past.

 

[KenTheLandlord]

Ken - as a staunch Labour voter myself, I agree with a lot of what you post, but if you’re seriously thinking this was anything but a disaster for Labour, I thinkk you're mistaken. Mid-term, Tories pulling themselves apart - this would normally have meant hundreds of gained seats for the opposition. Now the 3rd party in Scotland, lost seat/votes in previous heartland of Wales. I never normally back any party until 3/6 months before an election, but I think there’s serious money to be made at current odds of 5/2 on for a Tory majority. Camera-On at 9/1 against also looks tempting - he may want to keep Boris out. But Labour are royally and utteerly fucked with Corbyn at the helm. Completely unelectable. Great rhetoric, great stance against many of the things I abhor. But, as Alistair Campbell said, “the worst day in power is infinitely better than your best day in opposition”. This country has repeatedly shown it is centrist. Corbyn makes Kinnock look electable.

Fair enough if you think i am mistaken but equally i think the odious cretins on the right that own or head most of the mainstream media have shot their bolt. The BBC is nothing but a video-log for the tories, we know the people making the decisions there are linked or worked for the tories. One of the funniest things of the night was Kuenssberg orgasming her way to try and trip up MacDonald with the exclusive of a labour quote. He smiled and said he had written it. The coverage fuckin stunk that night. You have the Mail so institutionally racist it had Hitler for a mate trying to hector others on how to behave and then of course Murdoch and the lies produced time after time. If someone looked at the night in that prism, yes it would have been a disaster.
However back in the real world. 2012 was declared a monumental watershed for Labour and how well it did, on balance no councils were lost, the tories lost three times the seats and Labour won all the Mayoral elections. We were told it was the end and Labour would lose hundreds, it never happened, which was my point.
Since the vote, things have amazingly got even worse for BNP lite. Gidiot reckoned Goldstein's London campaign was banter, it was deeply racist and we will wait for the suspension that will never come as that party is ingrained racist. The election fraud of last year has suddenly become news after the election despite it having been noticed earlier. We will now see some tory head of police be investigated by her own force. Fuck me, if that had been Corbyn the toys would be everywhere. Twenty four recorded cases that need an investigation. Could have been done by the tories but they couldn't be arsed so now hopefully the truth will come out and the 24 of them will be off to jail, triggering another election.
Still running Wales and still dealing with a Scotland running on a SNP wave, not entirely concerned with Scotland. Could have been better but there we go, just get on with the rebuilding there.

No Johnny, far from a shambles but again another example of the those that say JC is unelectable getting it badly wrong. If you listen to the moaners and the press he would have failed in his bid to be leader, he was out before winter, then Xmas, then the coup after the election night, it really is utter shite whilst Call me Dim is sleep walking his party into prison or oblivion, either will do.