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Luck Index 2019: Man City unlucky? Man United worse than sixth? Aguero robbed? Here's what we found
Luck Index 2019: Man City unlucky? Man United worse than sixth? Aguero robbed? Here's what we found
It feels weird to say, but champions Man City were unlucky
Manchester City were unlucky this year and lucky the year before, suggesting that the 2018-19 version should have gained 101 points (misfortune cost them three points) and finished four points clear of Liverpool, while the centurions from 2017-18 were actually fortunate and gained an extra three points.
Man United were even worse than it looked
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got a lot of credit -- and a full-time job -- for rescuing United from the disaster that was the first four months of Jose Mourinho's third season but when you break down the numbers, they were fortunate to finish sixth. Both managers at Old Trafford had good fortune in 2018-19 but when you break down the myriad injustices suffered by Everton, who were the unluckiest team in the Premier League last year according to the Luck Index, United should have finished seventh and out of the European places, with Everton finishing sixth on 62 points, ahead of United on goal difference. It's no wonder both teams have been busy making signings this summer.
Sergio Aguero was robbed
Luck also played a massive part in the race of the Golden Boot, which was shared by Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, each scoring 22 goals. Apply the Luck Index adjustments and the two Liverpool strikers lose four goals each, while Aubameyang loses a whopping eight. (The Arsenal striker paid a price for deflected goals, incorrectly awarded goals and converting incorrectly awarded penalties).
Check out the table:
All of this means we would have had a different top scorer last season: Sergio Aguero, whom the Luck Index stripped of only one goal, leaving him on 20 (rather than the 21 he had in reality).
Incidentally, there might be something to the old cliché whereby strikers make their own luck: each of the top eight goal scorers in the Premier League had goals taken away by the Luck Index.