Expected goals position

[El Mago86]

Interesting article on bbc sport regarding expected goals and league position today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50822875

I'm not saying it's the reason we havent performed this year but theres some really interesting titbits such as a graph showing we have a reasonable defense but ruthless opponents (or the fact our system has glaring errors against pace and our high line exacerbating the issue) but also that livarpool are by far benefitting from the most wasteful opponents in terms of big chances not taken. It's another layer into why they have had the half season they have on top of var, on top of their decent defense and forward line that teams have just been utterly shite at putting the ball in the net against them by a factor of almost 50% more than any other team which is actually a huge factor. It's a reason why they have looked pretty crap but still get the results.

 

[mccity]

In my personal opinion, how a team performs relative to its xG is a mentality thing.

I believe ours is bad this season, so we're being particularly wasteful. Whenever we've ground outta result over the last 3 years Pep's always mentioned belief in the way they play. We've lost that belief at times this season.

 

[Marvin]

Interesting article on bbc sport regarding expected goals and league position today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50822875

I'm not saying it's the reason we havent performed this year but theres some really interesting titbits such as a graph showing we have a reasonable defense but ruthless opponents (or the fact our system has glaring errors against pace and our high line exacerbating the issue) but also that livarpool are by far benefitting from the most wasteful opponents in terms of big chances not taken. It's another layer into why they have had the half season they have on top of var, on top of their decent defense and forward line that teams have just been utterly shite at putting the ball in the net against them by a factor of almost 50% more than any other team which is actually a huge factor. It's a reason why they have looked pretty crap but still get the results.

I think City's dip in points is down to the defence. Look below. An identical goals scored but a small increase in goals conceded.

After 20 games in 2018/19
P__W_D_L_F_A_P
20 15 2 3 54 16 47

And now
20 13 2 5 54 23 41

Stats are useful summaries of what's going.

One might also consider the impact of VAR. For example. We've lost a lot of points due to VAR:

Spurs (H), Liverpool (A), Wolves (A).

VAR, Injury, Appetite, Age all factors imo. Nothing fundamental.

 

[Double R]

I dont think its all about missing chances, it works the other way too. An age old problem has reared its ugly head once more this season: far too many opposition shots ends up in the back of our net.
So they are exceeding their expected goals against us. e.g they expect to score 1.24 but end up scoring 3 and winning.
We scored 2 against wolves, spurs, newcastle and norwich, but only picked up 2 points out of 12.
When a team as good as us scores twice in a match, we should be winning those matches.
With those 10 extra points, we would still be in the title race.
But ultimately, we are conceding too many shots because our standard has dipped this season, and our defence cant cope with the extra pressure.

 

[Gorton_Tubster]

The only things we're missing are belief, confidence, luck.

They're the things LFC have this year