FA Cup 4th round draw - Palace (a)

[mrtwiceaseason]

Well done fa totally skint at the moment gambled by staying on the cup scheme could end up at the final without going to a match :+)

 

[Chippy_boy]

don't know if its been said but our last 10 domestic cups games only 1 has been at home because it had to be, the semi(the final i'm counting as an away)

what are the odds on that

102/1

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

So "if" Palace go through to play us in the next round, it will be our 7th consecutive away tie against top flight opposition. The odds of drawing a Prem team away in 3rd round of the FA Cup is 6.63-1. This decreases to an average of 5.2-1 in 4th round and approx 3-1 in 5th round. The figures for 3rd and 4th rounds of League Cup are 4.133 and 3.333 respectively. City's last 6 ties, plus the "expected" match against Palace give the following probabilities:

6.63 x 6.63 x 5.2 x 5.2 x 3 x 4.133 x 3.333 = a staggering longshot of 49,120 to 1.

Admittedly this is not quite as enormous as my non-scientific "guess" of 250,000 to 1, but that impossible figure could well be reached in the quarter final. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets please - but the odds are (heavily) in favour of the house. The only question is: who or what is the "house" in our cosy little non-conspiratorial world?

So, assuming we were to win in the fourth round, what are the odds on us being drawn away in round five?

 

[Bill]

Indeed, the freezing balls would've cooled down the red hot ball, making it impossible to detect.

and what if it had a pimple on it, like braille?

 

[NPBlue]

not saying there is anything in it, far from it, but its a long run without a home game

That's because there is nothing in it.

If we had drawn Accrington Stanley at home, would this conversation be happening? Of course not.

Take a coin, toss it, and see how many times the same side comes up, one after the other during a marathon 100 toss session.

 

[BringBackSwales]

So, assuming we were to win in the fourth round, what are the odds on us being drawn away in round five?

I still expect us to be away rather than neutral in the semi final, should we get there

 

[BringBackSwales]

That's because there is nothing in it.

If we had drawn Accrington Stanley at home, would this conversation be happening? Of course not.

Take a coin, toss it, and see how many times the same side comes up, one after the other during a marathon 100 toss session.

Isn't that the point, we (again) didn't draw anyone at home? While yet again utd pool spurs and chelsea all did. Can't see how it is fixed, but the coincidences remain huge

 

[mrtwiceaseason]

So, assuming we were to win in the fourth round, what are the odds on us being drawn away in round five?

I've looked at the records of the last ten years and multiplied it by 16 and come up with the answer of 50%

 

[Bill]

anyone thought about the financial aspect of all these away draws?

I know we get a cut from cup ties but it wont be anywhere near what we would earn for a home tie.

I know lets introduce a scheme that costs them money now ffp has failed.

 

[tonea2003]

That's because there is nothing in it.

If we had drawn Accrington Stanley at home, would this conversation be happening? Of course not.

Take a coin, toss it, and see how many times the same side comes up, one after the other during a marathon 100 toss session.

but we didn't, once again i'm just saying it a long run and as 102/1 says that's a pretty long shot