Gabriel Jesus - 2017/18 performances

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SWP's back said:
Several reasons:

  • They were already good mates when Neymar was at Barca and Barca wanted to sign him (matching tattoos), he still chose City over Barca.
  • City would not sell to PSG (Qatar and Abu Dhabi political row).
  • He's getting game time and about to get a big wage increase at City anyway, playing in a better league.
  • PSG couldn't afford him this coming summer as all their transfer spending is going on Mbappe (hence loan with guaranteed purchase next summer as they couldn't afford him and stay within FFP in this accounting period).
  • City have never sold a player they wanted to keep since the takeover.
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Other than that, I can still see him going there.
 
So happy Gabi grabbed a brace. He's been a little below his usual high standards of late, a couple of goals will do him the world of good.
 
SWP's back said:
Several reasons:

  • They were already good mates when Neymar was at Barca and Barca wanted to sign him (matching tattoos), he still chose City over Barca.
  • City would not sell to PSG (Qatar and Abu Dhabi political row).
  • He's getting game time and about to get a big wage increase at City anyway, playing in a better league.
  • PSG couldn't afford him this coming summer as all their transfer spending is going on Mbappe (hence loan with guaranteed purchase next summer as they couldn't afford him and stay within FFP in this accounting period).
  • City have never sold a player they wanted to keep since the takeover.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the comprehensive answer. I tend to agree with your reasons. The boy is young though and not yet on a superstar contract (as far as I understand). No doubt the club will address that this season at some point.
 
SWP's back said:
Several reasons:

  • They were already good mates when Neymar was at Barca and Barca wanted to sign him (matching tattoos), he still chose City over Barca.
  • City would not sell to PSG (Qatar and Abu Dhabi political row).
  • He's getting game time and about to get a big wage increase at City anyway, playing in a better league.
  • PSG couldn't afford him this coming summer as all their transfer spending is going on Mbappe (hence loan with guaranteed purchase next summer as they couldn't afford him and stay within FFP in this accounting period).
  • City have never sold a player they wanted to keep since the takeover.
Click to expand...
Although I want to agree with everything you have outlined above (for obvious reasons) not all of the points are nailed-on reasons he would not go to PSG. While I’ve shared my thoughts as to why below, I can also say with confidence, from a professional standpoint, that you should never undestimate the likelihood of a business transaction (as there is usually little to be gained by that MO; and often much to be lost). I am sure City are taking the more pragmatic approach to protect a substantial asset.

1. He chose City for sporting reasons unique to that time and circumstance. It is often problematic to use one state of affairs from one period to prove an action won’t take place within another state of affairs in another period (especially when the two states are significantly different). Prediction is based on levels of confidence and I would rate that assessment fairly low level. For all we know Neymar was already rethinking his time at Barca and Jesus was aware of this. And it was unlikely he would get anywhere near the playing time is and has gotten with us at the time of his transfer. He is also currently on a contract that he may feel, come the end of the season, does not reflect his status in world football or contributions to the club—that will need sorting.

2. I do think that is a stronger argument but, without breaking confidence of my clients, I can say there are some opportunistic/pragmatic/power dealings going on behind the scenes as of late that lower my confidence level that the Qatari-UAE divide will hold, even publically, in the next two years. Again, this is the strongest point you outlined but it isn’t necessarily a static state.

3. As referenced in #1, I absolutely agree we need to sort a new contract for him. Keeping on the current contract could be one of the biggest drivers of a move away (as it is not just the money but the perceived value players take from their contracts; it’s financial and personal, just as it is with all of us in our professions). As my grandfather is fond of saying “you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate [work] for.”

I am still not sure the “better league” argument holds water, though, as players like to shine and they don’t always equate that with the relative overall skill of the opposition. Ligue 1 is still considered a top five league which means even if it is of a slightly lower standard, a player will still get press, will still play in high profile matches, will still participate in the Champions League (with a fair chance of advancing in it), will still get lucrative endorsement contracts, will still play with other marquee players, and will still have a very good wage. And that’s even more true with PSG, where they get to live in one of the world cultural capitals, which is very much a selling point to a young person. If anything, playing in Ligue 1 may help them shine even brighter, a belief I am sure Neymar holds.

4. I think Jesus’ transfer would actually not be a problem financially if rumblings about anti-FFP actions and UEFA nervousness about cash cows demanding higher revenue shares (or else) are to be believed. That’s not even taking in to account the possible staff clear out that may accomany a Cavani sale (they are in a similar position from a wages perspective to where we were last year). Depending on commercial plays and those aforementioned sales, they could significantly increase available funds, allowing for another marquee transfer, even in the face of their Mbappe deal.

5. This is not to say City will always be in this position of strength (as you have referenced, just look at Barca, which was in a precarious position even without the buyout clause disadvantage). Depending on Jesus’ wishes (by May he should know if everything about playing for City matches his expectations), other PSG transfer dealings (they will continue to have the financial muscle to capture or turn the head of our transfer targets), and many, many other as yet unforeseen factors, it is possible they could use various leverage for such a transfer.

You do make a great point in a later post regarding the Spanish requirement for buyout clauses (which are both good and bad for clubs) but I am actually not sure if Jesus’ contract with us has one (I am sure someone else can clarify) and, even if it does not, that’s not necessarily as big a hinderance as it may seem. By all reports in Spain (and some elsewhere), Barca botched negotiations with Liverpool and several other clubs abroad in the summer. There are some good articles I can dig up (that I am sure can be translated without too much meaning being lost) that describe some desperate and shoddy work—the sort of stuff that would have you sacked at my company.

Anyway, all of this is to say, I originally said I was nervous, which means I don’t necessarily think Jesus would go to play with Neymar at PSG but I don’t think it is an impossibility, as some may argue.
 
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SWP's back said:
No.

He’s basing his nervousness only on two fucking footballers being mates. Then trying to dissect my points as if two people being mates circumvents all of that.
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Thanks for that under contract till 2021 so not going to loose any sleep just yet.
 
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