Shades of 92 in this election. Watch the polls say Labour will win. JC will have a rally saying get ready for government then those Tory bastards get a substantial majority.
This is where my head is at.
Getting away from all the 'heatedness' that has crept into the thread these last couple of days - I think that it is approaching the time when we should consider setting out our predictions - free of bias and aspirations and reflecting our ability to be objective.
I have just been onto Betfair and I am going with a primary bet on:
Conservative majority between 50 - 74 @ 5.3
and with a secondary bet on:
Conservative majority between 75 - 99 @ 5.9
Anyone else willing to set out their genuine expectation as we near the line - as opposed to their preferred outcome?
The main reasoning I have for this prediction is that I think that on this occasion the UK voting system will work against Labour. I can see them doing really well - where they have traditionally done really well, but not really at all positioned to take seats off any party. I can see them losing a good number of marginal seats.
My thinking is also influenced by my researching of the Labour Party's own canvassing that shows a much worse situation than the polls.
I can see a lot of UKIP voters deserting to the Conservatives rather than Labour, because actually leaving the EU is important to them and can be a clear deciding factor amongst all the clamour of other electioneering - and also it should be clear to them that a coalition will not achieve Brexit.
I also think that Ruth Davidson has run a compelling campaign in Scotland and this will see the vast majority of those that want to protest against Indyref2 and/or Sturgeon, not behaving as traditionally and going to the Conservatives rather than Labour.
I also think, FWIW, that the number of undecided voters is very small so the impact of any concerted press scare-mongering will accordingly be very small.
I will be here on Friday to sit down to my humble pie as necessary - and when also we can all get back to hating all things red