How big is a top 4 place?

[Prestwich_Blue]

Liverpool could be an interesting case. They've increased commercial income although their Standard Chartered deal is supposedly performance related. The recently confirmed Warrior deal isn't, which was great for Liverpool but possibly a major blunder for Warrior.

However, that deal probably just about makes up for the increase in player amortisation under KKK (King Kenny of the Kop). Being out of the CL has probably cost them at least £40m in overall revenue terms but on the other hand, they're not paying qabout £20m in interest they were under Hicks & Gillett. They were always the weakest of the "big 4" in terms of revenue. Chelsea made bigger losses but Abramovic can always bale them out. Fenway aren't pumping money in; it's a business deal for them. The thinking presumably has been that they would spend £100m on the team and get CL income back but that has backfired big-time (or looks as though it will).

KKK has pissed away that money and the risk is that the more saleable players (Reina, Enrique, Agger, Suarez, maybe Skrtel) will go, leaving them with the older players who have little value (Carragher, Kuyt, Gerrard) and the younger ones (Adam, Downing, Henderson, Carroll, Johnson) who aren't good enough for a top 4 team.

Liverpool's virtuous circle involved CL football attracting top players & bringing in cash for fees & wages and a new stadium, which would finance itself I'd guess that the owners can only either spend on the team or on the stadium but not both simultaneously while there is uncertainty about achieving top 4. Once they're seen to be out of contention for Top 4, then the higher earners will be replaced by cheaper players to keep costs down and they'll be hoping that a Hughes/Allardyce-type manager can get them a Europa League place.

 

[Castiel]

When the top 4 stabilises, anyone outside of it wont have a chance of getting in if the rules are enforced. Exactly the same situation in Spain with their unfair TV deals.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Liverpool could be an interesting case. They've increased commercial income although their Standard Chartered deal is supposedly performance related. The recently confirmed Warrior deal isn't, which was great for Liverpool but possibly a major blunder for Warrior.

However, that deal probably just about makes up for the increase in player amortisation under KKK (King Kenny of the Kop). Being out of the CL has probably cost them at least £40m in overall revenue terms but on the other hand, they're not paying qabout £20m in interest they were under Hicks & Gillett. They were always the weakest of the "big 4" in terms of revenue. Chelsea made bigger losses but Abramovic can always bale them out. Fenway aren't pumping money in; it's a business deal for them. The thinking presumably has been that they would spend £100m on the team and get CL income back but that has backfired big-time (or looks as though it will).

KKK has pissed away that money and the risk is that the more saleable players (Reina, Enrique, Agger, Suarez, maybe Skrtel) will go, leaving them with the older players who have little value (Carragher, Kuyt, Gerrard) and the younger ones (Adam, Downing, Henderson, Carroll, Johnson) who aren't good enough for a top 4 team.

Liverpool's virtuous circle involved CL football attracting top players & bringing in cash for fees & wages and a new stadium, which would finance itself I'd guess that the owners can only either spend on the team or on the stadium but not both simultaneously while there is uncertainty about achieving top 4. Once they're seen to be out of contention for Top 4, then the higher earners will be replaced by cheaper players to keep costs down and they'll be hoping that a Hughes/Allardyce-type manager can get them a Europa League place.

If I were a dipper and had just read that, I'd be preparing for a major sobbing session.

 

[mcmanus]

When the top 4 stabilises, anyone outside of it wont have a chance of getting in if the rules are enforced. Exactly the same situation in Spain with their unfair TV deals.

And you know what? I say fuck whoever is left behind because the Scousers, Arsenal, Chelsea and them lot didn't give a fuck about City or the other 87 league teams.

What goes around comes around...........

 

[Dzeko's Right Boot]

When the top 4 stabilises, anyone outside of it wont have a chance of getting in if the rules are enforced. Exactly the same situation in Spain with their unfair TV deals.

And you know what? I say fuck whoever is left behind because the Scousers, Arsenal, Chelsea and them lot didn't give a fuck about City or the other 87 league teams.

What goes around comes around...........

Were they the teams which changed how TV revenue was handed out a few years ago?

 

[Deleted member 14625]

Top three; not top four.

Fourth just yes you into an unseeded play-off game.

 

[bluemoondays]

Liverpool could be an interesting case. They've increased commercial income although their Standard Chartered deal is supposedly performance related. The recently confirmed Warrior deal isn't, which was great for Liverpool but possibly a major blunder for Warrior.

However, that deal probably just about makes up for the increase in player amortisation under KKK (King Kenny of the Kop). Being out of the CL has probably cost them at least £40m in overall revenue terms but on the other hand, they're not paying qabout £20m in interest they were under Hicks & Gillett. They were always the weakest of the "big 4" in terms of revenue. Chelsea made bigger losses but Abramovic can always bale them out. Fenway aren't pumping money in; it's a business deal for them. The thinking presumably has been that they would spend £100m on the team and get CL income back but that has backfired big-time (or looks as though it will).

KKK has pissed away that money and the risk is that the more saleable players (Reina, Enrique, Agger, Suarez, maybe Skrtel) will go, leaving them with the older players who have little value (Carragher, Kuyt, Gerrard) and the younger ones (Adam, Downing, Henderson, Carroll, Johnson) who aren't good enough for a top 4 team.

Liverpool's virtuous circle involved CL football attracting top players & bringing in cash for fees & wages and a new stadium, which would finance itself I'd guess that the owners can only either spend on the team or on the stadium but not both simultaneously while there is uncertainty about achieving top 4. Once they're seen to be out of contention for Top 4, then the higher earners will be replaced by cheaper players to keep costs down and they'll be hoping that a Hughes/Allardyce-type manager can get them a Europa League place.

This always confuses me, the new owners spent £300m on the club & pumped in another bunch of cash on players. What do they get out of it? I suppose they could admire the trophy room with its 'istree but surely at some point they are going to want some cash back - like £350m minimum or at the very least the equivalent return they could have got by investing £350m somewhere else.

If you assume they'll want 8% nett return, then Liverpool will need to cough up something like £50m/year (15% gross). If it's another leveraged buyout they are going to want circa £20m/year (same as H&G assuming 6% loan rates) to cover their spending and then sell the club on to some mug who'll load Liverpool up with debt all over again............

Their only other option is to refloat on the market but times are not good for that especially if they want to retain a controlling interest. If they just float the entire club and keep a few shares they are open to another hostile takeover like H&G all over again.

Seriously, it could be fun watching Liverpool's situation over the next 10 years :D

 

[intheknow!]

Re: how big is a top 4 place

FFP kicking in has made a CL place everything. it's going to be harder than ever to break a 'top 4' if one forms from the 7 clubs currently up there.

forgot about the FFP rule that could kill of liverpool[/quote]


No FFP won't kill off Pool because they are very very profitable club even WITHOUT Champions League football, they make money second only to the Rags. Pool will be fine. FFP was set up to protect clubs like Liverpool. Clubs that make a lot of money, because FFP means you can only spend what you earn. Liverpool earn a lot. FFP might actually help Pool get back into the top 4. Don't forget Liverpool have actually INCREASED their commercial revenue despite them being out of the CL.

There is a lot of misunderstanding about FFP.

The club FFP will hurt the most and send into a death spiral is Arsenal. Ironically since Wenger is the cheerleader for FFP. Here is why: Arsenal rely on CL cash as they don't make a lot of revenue commercially, they are locked into a stadium naming deal and kit sponsorship that are way way below any of the other top 6. Any profits they have posted over the years have been entirely down to player sales & the sale of property the club owns in London, exclude these and they've actually made a loss. Last year they sold the last of the property so no more revenue from that. The only really valuable player they have left is RVP. Their wage bill is also rising. If they fail to make the CL, they will no longer be able to attract the top players and with FFP their owner wouldn't be able to sanction a big spending spree, ala Liverpool, even if he wanted to. Arsenal simply do not have enough revenue.

Liverpool have more revenue even out of the CL to enable them to keep spending, Arsenal do not. When you analyse it the club that will suffer from FFP & no CL is Arsenal NOT Liverpool.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Re: how big is a top 4 place

No FFP won't kill off Pool because they are very very profitable club even WITHOUT Champions League football, they make money second only to the Rags. Pool will be fine.

You don't really live up to your username.

Liverpool in their last reported accounts made a loss of £20m and that was after a profit on transfers of £25m. So that's a loss of £45m on normal operations despite income from CL football, where they went out in the group stages and then got to the Europa League semi-final.

 

[Castiel]

Not to mention, how long will their global fan base last while they're competing with the Stoke's and Sunderland's of the league? I don't imagine many people in Asia are going out to buy a Downing shirt.